Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Requiem]

Huh. Splitty jet stream-- yet we get soaked according to the GFS.

[MossMan]

02/12/19. Really was incredible to see.

It sure was. That was an amazing nearly 6 weeks of weather!

[GHweatherChris]

What are we complaining about?

I was wondering the same thing...

 

Last week was fun, got to golf today in great weather and looks like I will be able to a few times this coming week as well, just gonna bide my time waiting for the next snowy period.

[Phil]

That’s a super niño looking pattern on the GFS. The WWB and rapid spike in AAM/deposition in the tropics is also consistent with this.

[seattleweatherguy]

That’s a super niño looking pattern on the GFS. The WWB and rapid spike in AAM/deposition in the tropics is also consistent with this.

Winter over or mid feb still on the table?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Next round will begin around February 22nd.

[Phil]

Winter over or mid feb still on the table?

I think mid/late Feb is still doable. The next 3 or 4 weeks aren’t gonna do much, though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We'll get a favorable cold pattern here sometime in April. Then a bunch of 90F days before another mega-torch next winter.  Then 21-22 will be a good one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a ton of warm rain in NW Oregon later this week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

KONA LOW

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unfortunately most of this would be rain in the mountains too. 

 

[MossMan]

Next round will begin around February 22nd.

I agree! Since that is the day we get home.

[AbbyJr]

I think mid/late Feb is still doable. The next 3 or 4 weeks aren’t gonna do much, though.

My only concern is that the Alaskan vortex is back and it took forever to dismantle the first time. We don't have much time as we are nearing the end of January. Once we start getting into late February it takes a real top tier blast to be memorable. Its really a disappointment that this last blast did not live up to its potential in terms of extremes and duration. The potential was there for it to be a historical epic cold blast but the models collapsed at the last minute. Thankfully we still got something good, but its not nearly as good in comparison to what it could have been. Really disappointing. I have a good feeling for February but I'm a little nervous that what we just experienced may be our winter this year. I like the signals in the Euro weeklies. We'll see what they show tomorrow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I agree! Since that is the day we get home.

That is the day we come home as well.

[snow_wizard]

The end of the 0z GFS is gold for sure!  A lot of colder GFS ensemble members showing up as well.  The plot thickens.

 

The key is going to be how those pieces of high pressure shown during week 2 come together.  The EPS has been picking on this also.

[Gradient Keeper]

Since the new 1991-2020 climactic averages are coming out next year, here's a map of the US and how much temperature change there is with the new averages (with only one year removed):

 

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1216030340541632517?s=20

That guy is a climate change alarmist whom I would take his thoughts with a grain of dog . Just my opinion.

[HighlandExperience]

That guy is a climate change alarmist whom I would take his thoughts with a grain of dog s**t. Just my opinion.

That map is scary. Hope it’s not that bad !

[luvssnow_spokane]

The end of the 0z GFS is gold for sure!  A lot of colder GFS ensemble members showing up as well.  The plot thickens.

 

The key is going to be how those pieces of high pressure shown during week 2 come together.  The EPS has been picking on this also.

<_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_huh.png" alt=":huh:"> Oh brother! Really?!  Lol

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like a sloppy snowstorm over East/Central Vancouver Island at hr 312.

 

[Deweydog]

Febulous.

[Timmy]

Febulous.

surprised you are up this late the night before MLK!

[Phil]

That guy is a climate change alarmist whom I would take his thoughts with a grain of dog s**t. Just my opinion.

I disagree with this characterization of Brian. He’s pretty mainstream. And he didn’t create the ESRL R1 dataset..he’s merely mapping/extrapolating what’s already there. If there are issues with the data quality, that’s on NOAA.

[snow_wizard]

We have a pretty solid window of opportunity coming up in early Feb.  Some promising model runs in that time frame and the EPS teleconnection forecasts continue to trend better.  Finally a signal for some -WPO which is something that has been lacking this winter, and the PNA goes negative again.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty gusty for the past hour or so. Shook the house a few times while I was finishing Watchmen.

 

You will never feel cheated in the wind department here.  Sometimes the east wind blows for days.  The best I have ever seen was in Dec 2005 when it blew hard for two solid days with gusts to 60 during the entire period.  Clear skies the entire time.

[TT-SEA]

Jim is right... there does appear to be another opportunity in early February. The 00Z EPS mean looked similar to its previous runs... until the end when it now shows the cold air over Alaska moving south into the PNW. Its definitely something to watch.

 

Here is day 15:

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Its MLK Day!!! 

 

Cloudy and 48 here to start the day.   

[MossMan]

Very early spring like MLK Day! Thanks Matt!!

 

48 and cloudy as well.

[ShawniganLake]

Raining and 36F here.

[BLI snowman]

Raining and 36F here.

 

Hey, give us our weather back!

[Jesse]

A top 5 warm January for many places in the western lowlands (south of Everett) is starting to look pretty likely.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A top 5 warm January for many places in the western lowlands (south of Everett) is starting to look pretty likely.

 

That coupled with Tim's EPS map this morning, starting to feel a little deja vu. 

[MossMan]

That coupled with Tim's EPS map this morning, starting to feel a little deja vu.

February & March 2019 redux is in the works!

[Cloud]

So the price we all pay for 3-4 days of cold is to torch the rest of the month. So stupid.

[TT-SEA]

That coupled with Tim's EPS map this morning, starting to feel a little deja vu. 

 

 

Tough call... the January results might be about the same from Seattle southward this year but it was a very different month than January 2019 which was a region wide torch and terrible for the mountains.   We actually had a decent arctic intrusion this month with significant lowland snow and ridiculous amounts of mountain snow.   

 

Also... January of 2019 was brutally cold to our east and then the pattern retrograded.   That is not what is happening now at all.   And at this point... the cold air intrusion shown on the EPS looks fairly transitory.    

 

So its tempting to say its the same thing when looking at it just from the perspective of Portland for example.   But I don't think that is the case.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So the price we all pay for 3-4 days of cold is to torch the rest of the month. So stupid.

Or for some of us it was just 3-4 days of slightly below normal temps.

[Cloud]

Or for some of us is was just 3-4 days of slightly below normal temps.

Yeah and the “cold” was mostly for the northern interior. It wasn’t all that impressive anywhere else.

 

I hope February brings the icebox.

[TacomaWaWx]

Jim is right... there does appear to be another opportunity in early February. The 00Z EPS mean looked similar to its previous runs... until the end when it now shows the cold air over Alaska moving south into the PNW. Its definitely something to watch.

 

Here is day 15:

 

 

Looks like we could have another February deliver after all possibly.

[Skagit Weather]

This, would be a lot of snow (St. John's in Newfoundland). I don't think I've seen a time lapse where the entire car gets buried. Maybe coming in early February?

 

https://twitter.com/CBCNL/status/1218688266351845383

[BLI snowman]

A top 5 warm January for many places in the western lowlands (south of Everett) is starting to look pretty likely.

 

It's basically been a drier version of January 1953, that month also had some arctic air make it down to the border, albeit not as intensely. 

 

Upside to that is the cold in AK actually has been impressive for a change. Anchorage is posting a -14 departure right now and is looking at another extended stretch of deep cold. If the month ended today it would be their coldest January on record and 2nd coldest month overall.

[TacomaWaWx]

Tough call... the January results might be about the same from Seattle southward this year but it was a very different month than January 2019 which was a region wide torch and terrible for the mountains.   We actually had a decent arctic intrusion this month with significant lowland snow and ridiculous amounts of mountain snow.   

 

Also... January of 2019 was brutally cold to our east and then the pattern retrograded.   That is not what is happening now at all.   And at this point... the cold air intrusion shown on the EPS looks fairly transitory.    

 

So its tempting to say its the same thing when looking at it just from the perspective of Portland for example.   But I don't think that is the case.

There's a lot of differences from last fall/winter compared to this one.