Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Guest LaPineLurker]

They sell those in Culver?

You guys really should come up with some new material. I will pray for some wind for you.

[SnarkyGoblin]

The idea that the global temperature anomaly can vary in excess of 1.5C-2C within an 18 month span thanks to ENSO (see the 1998-2000 swing) but that somehow these swings in heat flow/budgeting don’t happen over longer intervals via structurally analogous conduits is just bats**t stupid. It’s the willful defiance of logic and reality.

I am pretty sure no one is denying there are a lot of factors that drive a warming/cooling climate. One of them being very human-driven.

 

Also, can you reference sources when you say things like 'our avg temperature anomoly increased 1.5 degrees in 18 months'? Cause from what I can tell, that is simply not true.

 

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ContentWOC/images/decadaltemp/annual_temperature_anomalies_2014.png

 

I agree with Andrew....it would be nice if there were a few global negative anomolies in the upcoming years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dense fog has now rolled in. Down to 47.

[MossMan]

Good lord. Seattle would have played the 9ers much tougher. Anyway back to the weather...It’s boring! And will be for the rest of the month! Yahoo!

 

Currently 53 and cloudy.

[Timmy Supercell]

Shared by our County Museum on facebook, this little story in January 1950.

 

"SHEEP DRIVE ON CALIFORNIA AVENUE, January 1950 –

Klamath County Museum’s Photo of the Week for Jan. 19, 2020, shows a band of sheep being driven along a snowy section of California Avenue 70 years ago.
-
This image is a clipping from the Jan. 18, 1950, Herald and News. The youth herding the sheep is Pat Fitzgerald, son of prominent sheep producer Daniel Fitzgerald. The elder Fitzgerald was an Irish immigrant who established a large ranch along Highway 66, just west of the Weyerhaeuser lumber mill.
-
The family grazed sheep on pasture in the Pelican City area, and drove the animals through town to and from the main ranch southwest of town.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

56/46 for EUG. Close to a double-digit positive temp departure.

[umadbro]

What an extremely boring/lame winter...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What an extremely boring/lame winter...

Yup, worst here since 15-16.

[Timmy Supercell]

Until February!

[Jesse]

What an extremely boring/lame winter...

At least you saw it coming when no one else did.

[Omegaraptor]

What an extremely boring/lame winter...

 

Seems like we can't get anything interesting weather wise, not even a windstorm.

 

Sure, we got lots of mountain snow last week but the Cascades are quite literally known for getting massive amounts of snow. Two of the snowiest places ON EARTH, Mt Rainier and Mt Baker, are in the Cascades, and even Crater Lake in southern Oregon still gets 500" a year on average. The fact that "the mountains are getting nailed" is the best thing we can say here in Oregon is kind of sad.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like we can't get anything interesting weather wise, not even a windstorm.

 

Sure, we got lots of mountain snow last week but the Cascades are quite literally known for getting massive amounts of snow. Two of the snowiest places ON EARTH, Mt Rainier and Mt Baker, are in the Cascades, and even Crater Lake in southern Oregon still gets 500" a year on average. The fact that "the mountains are getting nailed" is the best thing we can say here in Oregon is kind of sad.

 

At least we have that though!

[umadbro]

At least you saw it coming when no one else did.

Wow, weird. I didn't even know that I saw it coming. The more you know.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful 52 degree January evening.

[Phil]

I am pretty sure no one is denying there are a lot of factors that drive a warming/cooling climate. One of them being very human-driven.

 

Also, can you reference sources when you say things like 'our avg temperature anomoly increased 1.5 degrees in 18 months'? Cause from what I can tell, that is simply not true.

 

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ContentWOC/images/decadaltemp/annual_temperature_anomalies_2014.png

 

I agree with Andrew....it would be nice if there were a few global negative anomolies in the upcoming years.

That’s a yearly average derived from surface stations and buoys only. I’m referring to lower-tropospheric temperature anomalies derived from satellite microwave radiometers, which measure a substantially larger portion of the atmosphere (in theory, much more ideal for measuring climate change).

 

Note the variability from year to year..this is a result of changes to atmosphere-ocean circulation (IE: ENSO in the short term). These expressions, however, are not confined to this sub-decadal frequency. They of course can operate on much longer timescales as well.

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_December_2019_v6.jpg

[Jesse]

Seems like we can't get anything interesting weather wise, not even a windstorm.

 

Sure, we got lots of mountain snow last week but the Cascades are quite literally known for getting massive amounts of snow. Two of the snowiest places ON EARTH, Mt Rainier and Mt Baker, are in the Cascades, and even Crater Lake in southern Oregon still gets 500" a year on average. The fact that "the mountains are getting nailed" is the best thing we can say here in Oregon is kind of sad.

 

What's really sad is that if they weren't you would probably have an equally long rant complaining about that.

[Esquimalt]

[Jesse]

Hit 50 here with some east winds. First 50+ high since 1/7. Gorgeous winter day. We spent the afternoon in Oxbow park on the Sandy River.

[Jesse]

Why do you seem like you always have a problem with Omegaraptor?

Never have been a fan of posters who complain about absolutely every type of weather that is happening, no matter what it is. Just a constant parade of negativity.

 

Old timers will remember that Anthony C was this way too.

[Requiem]

Never have been a fan of posters who complain about absolutely every type of weather that is happening, no matter what it is. Just a constant parade of negativity.

 

Old timers will remember that Anthony C was this way too.

 

Yeah, I've noticed you don't particularly enjoy his posting tendencies haha

 

Then again I get that way too (but my weather tastes seem a bit more...manageable).

[Timmy Supercell]

I grew up expecting periods of 2-3 years without sticking snow in the Portland Metro (went most of my childhood snowless!) both in Bethany and Hillsboro areas. These last 4 years you guys have had are a lot better than my young years. It really wouldn't surprise anyone if 2020 didn't feature any major snow events in PDX. 

 

Obviously the cascades annually expect snow (duh), but saying things like 04-05 analog which featured pretty terrible conditions at places that always see snow. It was Spring above 5000 feet in 2005. 2020 is nothing like that so far.

 

If anything was lacking abnormally it's windstorms a lot more than snow. This area hasn't had a legit one in several years.

[Esquimalt]

Never have been a fan of posters who complain about absolutely every type of weather that is happening, no matter what it is. Just a constant parade of negativity.

 

Old timers will remember that Anthony C was this way too.

I agree to a certain extent, but to be fair, it’s pretty easy to be pissed with such a boring climate if you’re stuck living here because of your parents or your work. I try to make the best of it but sometimes it can be hard

[Deweydog]

February

[Jesse]

I agree to a certain extent, but to be fair, it’s pretty easy to be pissed with such a boring climate if you’re stuck living here because of your parents or your work. I try to make the best of it but sometimes it can be hard

Sure. But I know he loves skiing and other winter sports because he usually complains when the mountains are doing badly for snow. Just like I do. So when we finally get it I don’t see the point of downplaying it unless you are just trying to make yourself unhappy.

 

Generally having lots of snow close by in the cold season is a big perk of our climate IMO

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I agree to a certain extent, but to be fair, it’s pretty easy to be pissed with such a boring climate if you’re stuck living here because of your parents or your work. I try to make the best of it but sometimes it can be hard

If you hate it that much come up with a plan stick to it and make it happen. All depends how bad you want it.

[Jesse]

Forum will be up and down throughout the night. Working on some stuff that I should hopefully get out there after a long while of talking about it.

I wasn’t able to pull it up earlier, so that makes sense.

[Timmy]

Forum will be up and down throughout the night. Working on some stuff that I should hopefully get out there after a long while of talking about it.

thanks for the updates.

[Timmy Supercell]

I wasn’t able to pull it up earlier, so that makes sense.

 

isitdownrightnow.com told me it was down too. I guess hold off typing gigantic analysis (or complaining) posts for a few hours. 

[Esquimalt]

If you hate it that much come up with a plan stick to it and make it happen. All depends how bad you want it.

I have a plan but it's going to have to wait 3 more winters.  I'm hoping for that long series of Ninas to save my soul.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I have a plan but it's going to have to wait 3 more winters.  I'm hoping for that long series of Ninas to save my soul.

3 years will go fast, I've been waiting for 20 years.

[Omegaraptor]

Sure. But I know he loves skiing and other winter sports because he usually complains when the mountains are doing badly for snow. Just like I do. So when we finally get it I don’t see the point of downplaying it unless you are just trying to make yourself unhappy.

 

Generally having lots of snow close by in the cold season is a big perk of our climate IMO

 

It really was great having such a big dump of snow in the mountains (and it was cold, powdery snow as well). Already puts this winter ahead of the notorious dumpster fires we've had in the past. It was just really disappointing to have the models appear so good for snow in the lowlands and then fall apart.

 

As someone said earlier the variability of this winter (rather than being stuck in the same pattern for weeks on end) is encouraging. It's not over till it's over.

[Jesse]

It really was great having such a big dump of snow in the mountains (and it was cold, powdery snow as well). Already puts this winter ahead of the notorious dumpster fires we've had in the past. It was just really disappointing to have the models appear so good for snow in the lowlands and then fall apart.

 

As someone said earlier the variability of this winter (rather than being stuck in the same pattern for weeks on end) is encouraging. It's not over till it's over.

 

I must have missed that post. But that's a good point. 

[Requiem]

00Z looks wet.

[Phil]

Never have been a fan of posters who complain about absolutely every type of weather that is happening, no matter what it is. Just a constant parade of negativity.

 

Old timers will remember that Anthony C was this way too.

What about posters that complain about other posters’ preferences and posting style(s)? Do they suck too?

[MossMan]

My dirty deck snow is dying.

[Jesse]

What about posters that complain about other posters’ preferences and posting style(s)? Do they suck too?

 

Yes. But the ones who complain about them essentially obtain god status.

[MossMan]

What are we complaining about?

[Omegaraptor]

Since the new 1991-2020 climactic averages are coming out next year, here's a map of the US and how much temperature change there is with the new averages (with only one year removed):

 

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1216030340541632517?s=20

[Phil]

[Phil]

Since the new 1991-2020 climactic averages are coming out next year, here's a map of the US and how much temperature change there is with the new averages (with only one year removed):

 

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1216030340541632517?s=20

That screams warm pool/+TNH dominance.