Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Timmy Supercell]

40-42 degrees this afternoon! Bring on the rain!!

[Timmy Supercell]

The dry seasons have been much longer and hotter as well.

2014 and 2015 were a couple of the worst snowpack years on record for Oregon, despite a ton of rain during the winter.

 

2015 was one of my wettest thunderstorm seasons. 2 out of every 3 cells did minor flooding in some part of town. 

[Jesse]

At least PDX will **probably** stay in the 40s today.

[Deweydog]

At least PDX will **probably** stay in the 40s today.

The last few synapses firing on strong inversion season.

 

#goodbyeoldfriend

[Jesse]

The last few synapses firing on strong inversion season.

#goodbyeoldfriend

Last year was kind of interesting in that it proved how refrigerated things can stay on the Basin/Gorge even well into March, if the conditions are right.

 

#ugh

[Deweydog]

Last year was kind of interesting in that it proved how refrigerated things can stay on the Basin/Gorge even well into March, if the conditions are right.

 

#ugh

Lots of things can happen. They will likely continue to happen from time to time. Stay tuned!!!

[Jesse]

Lots of things can happen. They will likely continue to happen from time to time. Stay tuned!!!

Mostly warm and nice things, though.

[Timmy Supercell]

Even with the dry last two years, the 2010s were a wet decade overall with only 2013, 2018, and 2019 being drier than average. Which included four consecutive wet years between 2014-17.

 

I can support that statement on a wet decade, 2000-2009 was less snowy and rainy in much of southern OR than 2010-2019.

 

Maybe a touch warmer than the 2000's but not the warmest decade ever.

[Deweydog]

Mostly warm and nice things, though.

Jaded little monkey...

 

Are you one of the monkeys on our back?

[Jesse]

[Deweydog]

18z.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hey Dewey xm radio channel 27 has been playing rush all day. I've had it cranked all day. That band helped me get through some rough times.

[El_Nina]

Last year was kind of interesting in that it proved how refrigerated things can stay on the Basin/Gorge even well into March, if the conditions are right.

#ugh

That was around the time I thought we entered a new regime.

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

[Canadian guy]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[ShawniganLake]

[GHweatherChris]

Literally every January since the last January that constituted being referenced as an epic January had something or some things that screwed up its opportunity to become an epic January.

 

For future reference, next January will be epic unless something screws it up. I think I’m finally getting this!

****, that took ya long enough...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS has a cluster of ensmbles that are showing SOMETHING that first week of February...

[MossMan]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

It’s trying!!

[Deweydog]

GFS has a cluster of ensmbles that are showing SOMETHING that first week of February...

Something or some thing?

[Blizzard777]

Sort of a nice looking cinnamon bun swirling offshore today.

 

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?sat_500+9

Let’s spice it up a bit! 

[AbbyJr]

[Phil]

Literally every January since the last January that constituted being referenced as an epic January had something or some things that screwed up its opportunity to become an epic January.

 

For future reference, next January will be epic unless something screws it up. I think I’m finally getting this!

The point is there’s never been an Alaskan TPV pattern that has delivered Arctic cold to the PNW without at least a minor SSW since the late 1970s.

[Blizzard777]

Holy mustard sauce.

 

Words I don’t care for in this post

[MossMan]

Screen Shot 2020-01-20 at 4.32.51 PM.png

Snowmizer!! Are you getting worried like I am?

[Poulsbo Snowman]

As easterlies(associated w/ -QBO) continue to descend through the spring/summer, and the tropical tropopause rises/cools over the Pacific, it may act to narrow/intensify the HC/ITCZ over the EPAC and finally complete the move into El Niño that was blocked last year by mature +QBO/feedback by ill-times OKW returns (heart of boreal summer during +PMM).

 

This made my head hurt.  Getting a Tylenol.

[Deweydog]

The point is there’s never been an Alaskan TPV pattern that has delivered Arctic cold to the PNW without at least a minor SSW since the late 1970s.

I don’t think anyone is saying it’s the best pathway to PNW greatness.

 

Alaska deserves it though. They’ve been tad warm of late thanks to the ice age.

[Blizzard777]

Storm after storm after storm! 
Gad I took my Christmas light down today as GFS wants to keep moisture every day until the end of the month. 
Department of Ecology ( or whoever manages the watershed)  will be busy doing their thing.  
active weather continues 

[Blizzard777]

This made my head hurt.  Getting a Tylenol.

I want Phil as my Doctor when he gives me the bad news 

[AbbyJr]

The point is there’s never been an Alaskan TPV pattern that has delivered Arctic cold to the PNW without at least a minor SSW since the late 1970s.

Wasn't there an Alaskan TPV pattern prior to this recent arctic cold blast?

[Jesse]

I just got a 48 pack of TPV from Costco.

[Blizzard777]

I just got a 48 pack of TPV from Costco.

That should last the rest of winter!

well played 

[Guest LaPineLurker]

La Nina probabilities are increasing incrementally through next fall as Enso-Neutral looks to be most favored still, according to the NWS.

[MossMan]

La Nina probabilities are increasing incrementally through next fall as Enso-Neutral looks to be most favored still, according to the NWS.

Was it conference call Monday?

[MossMan]

Storm after storm after storm!

Gad I took my Christmas light down today as GFS wants to keep moisture every day until the end of the month.

Department of Ecology ( or whoever manages the watershed) will be busy doing their thing.

active weather continues

My lights are staying up until the end of the next arctic blast! Could be March of 2022!

[AbbyJr]

Snowmizer!! Are you getting worried like I am?

Why worry?

[BLI snowman]

That’s like me saying a Baffin vortex/+NAO is a good thing because it sometimes (IE: rarely) gets knocked into the NE US. Sure, PNW/AK cold is not always mutually exclusive in the long run, but they do destructively interfere, and in strong/stable vortex years with growing +ENSO tendencies, the AK vortex is more of a problem out there problem than a benefit.

 

For instance, there has never been an Alaskan TPV pattern in tandem with a strong/stable PV that has delivered to the PNW going back to at least the 1970s. In the case of this winter, it probably screwed up what would have been an epic January.

 

This winter is in all likelihood a sunk cost at this point. Not too worried. Happy to see Alaska score something significant.

[El_Nina]

SCORED

[MossMan]

Why worry?

We are both leaving the state for a week in mid February for family vacations (not together) and we are worried that we are going to miss something epic!