Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Jesse]

That coupled with Tim's EPS map this morning, starting to feel a little deja vu. 

 

Was last January top warm? I thought it fell a little short but I have trouble keeping track of all the top warm months anymore.

[TacomaWaWx]

We have a pretty solid window of opportunity coming up in early Feb.  Some promising model runs in that time frame and the EPS teleconnection forecasts continue to trend better.  Finally a signal for some -WPO which is something that has been lacking this winter, and the PNA goes negative again.

We will all be watching closely! Would be a rare feat that hasn't happened in a long time if we get snow and cold in February 4 years in a row.

[TacomaWaWx]

Speaking of recent weather...it's rained here 20 days in a row now...21 if it rains today. It's done measurable precip wether it be rain or snow every day this month so far. Since 12/18 it's rained 10.79" and has rained 31 out of the last 33 days.

[TacomaWaWx]

Mountain snowpack has vastly improved since mid December. Pattern has been quite good for lots of rain and mountain snow recently.

[Jesse]

At least at PDX, last January wasn't super torchy. Just +1.7 for a departure.

 

January 2018 was their second warmest January on record, though. Three week arctic outbreak and all.

[Jesse]

Mountain snowpack has vastly improved since mid December. Pattern has been quite good for lots of rain and mountain snow recently.

 

Wow. This is great news, good to hear.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was last January top warm? I thought it fell a little short but I have trouble keeping track of all the top warm months anymore.

 

Yeah I think it did fall a little short, but it was warm. SLE's average high was over 50 for the month. I believe January 2018 was warmer. 

[BLI snowman]

Just need something before midnight to keep the measurable rainfall streak alive. Kinda rooting for it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's basically been a drier version of January 1953, that month also had some arctic air make it down to the border, albeit not as intensely. 

 

Upside to that is the cold in AK actually has been impressive for a change. Anchorage is posting a -14 departure right now and is looking at another extended stretch of deep cold. If the month ended today it would be their coldest January on record and 2nd coldest month overall.

 

I was thinking that the other night, especially looking at how wet we could close this month. 

[BLI snowman]

I was thinking that the other night, especially looking at how wet we could close this month. 

 

GFS looks a little drier now to close out the month but it could easily swing back the other way. Should still wind up solidly wet for most of the region.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Be nice to get some wind to dry out the sponge ground here.

[jcmcgaffey]

I wouldn’t mind another chance at some snow but at this point I am ready for some dry sunny weather. The last two months are starting to get to me. The continual light rain and cloudiness with heavier bouts of rain between has been very persistent.

[Jesse]

I wouldn’t mind another chance at some snow but at this point I am ready for some dry sunny weather. The last two months are starting to get to me. The continual light rain and cloudiness with heavier bouts of rain between has been very persistent.

November and the first part of December were notably dry. Other shoe was bound to drop at some point.

 

Just gotta hope all this rain doesn’t kill too many native trees.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I love the rain and my favorite is when fronts roll through with showers and sun breaks after. Never cared much for the warm front fog and drizzle.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

November and the first part of December were notably dry. Other shoe was bound to drop at some point.

Just gotta hope all this rain doesn’t kill too many native trees.

My hemlocks are liking the rain that I know.

[MossMan]

I love the rain and my favorite is when fronts roll through with showers and sun breaks after. Never cared much for the warm front fog and drizzle.

I love the pre frontal wind and warmth that happens especially in the fall. And like you say the fast moving fronts that leave us with showers and sun breaks. That stagnant warm front that lingers is my least favorite. This past November and December was brutal. Nearly zero wind movement for two months was awful. This month has been wonderful!

[Jesse]

My hemlocks are liking the rain that I know.

It was a joke since gaffey has pointed out some “research” in the past saying that rain is bad for native trees.

[Jesse]

I love the pre frontal wind and warmth that happens especially in the fall. And like you say the fast moving fronts that leave us with showers and sun breaks. That stagnant warm front that lingers is my least favorite. This past November and December was brutal. Nearly zero wind movement for two months was awful. This month has been wonderful!

November was probably one of the sunniest I can ever remember.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Also not looking forward to the wasps, hornets, and yellowjackets being worse after a warm fallspring.

[jcmcgaffey]

November was probably one of the sunniest I can ever remember.

great points. There was also a dry stretch 18years ago so really shouldn’t be tired of the rain right now...

[jcmcgaffey]

It was a joke since gaffey has pointed out some “research” in the past saying that rain is bad for native trees.

I never said that. I said that more vegetation is killed from cold, wind, and rain than drought around here.

[ShawniganLake]

I have mosquitoes in my house. Can’t be a good sign

[MossMan]

November was probably one of the sunniest I can ever remember.

I don’t remember it being overly sunny up here. I just remember stagnant air.

[jcmcgaffey]

I have mosquitoes in my house. Can’t be a good sign

I noticed a lot of mosquitoes lately too. Usually they are pretty dormant this time of year but have been pretty bad lately.

[jcmcgaffey]

I don’t remember it being overly sunny up here. I just remember stagnant air.

This fall and winter has been a dry and cloudy theme here. More days with rain and clouds but less precip to show for it. Worst of both worlds in my opinion.

[Jesse]

great points. There was also a dry stretch 18years ago so really shouldn’t be tired of the rain right now...

 

A notable dry and sunny stretch in the same wet season is a lot more pertinent than one nearly two decades ago.

[MossMan]

Jesse’s back from vacation!!

[jcmcgaffey]

A notable dry and sunny stretch in the same wet season is a lot more pertinent than one nearly two decades ago.

wasn’t the case here

[TT-SEA]

Jesse’s back from vacation!!

It could rain for 150 days in a row... and Jesse would be scolding people for enjoying the first dry day and invoking concern for the trees as the reason.

 

Likewise... it could rain every day all summer and he would be happy as a clam.

 

Interestingly... Portland averages 200 days a year without rain.

[jcmcgaffey]

Jesse’s back from vacation!!

I should have never made that comment that I was ready for some dry and sunny weather...

[Jesse]

Jesse’s back from vacation!!

I never left!

 

And what would this place be during quiet times without a little friendly debate. Only so many pictures we can look at of your lording how much snow you got over everyone else.

[El_Nina]

This has felt like the driest it's ever been here for this time of year. Outside of a few inches of rain in October and the past month or so, we haven't had any significant rain since last spring. And that faucet was shut off earlier than usual too.

This is without mentioning how warm we always are. We're all of a sudden in a record warm January after all this. I am rooting for this climate to stay intact. I hope the trends start heading towards wetter, cooler and snowier again.

[TT-SEA]

This has felt like the driest it's ever been here for this time of year. Outside of a few inches of rain in October and the past month or so, we haven't had any significant rain since last spring. And that faucet was shut off earlier than usual too.

This is without mentioning how warm we always are. We're all of a sudden in a record warm January after all this. I am rooting for this climate to stay intact. I hope the trends start heading towards wetter, cooler and snowier again.

 

 

Its been very wet up here for the last month...

 

 

 

October and November were fairly dry though... although we did have flooding in October.   All the rain was focused in one week that month.  

 

November was very dry and quiet overall.   But its been a wet winter so far in western WA.

[El_Nina]

Its been very wet up here for the last month...

 

Wonder how that would look without the one big rainstorm you guys had.

[TT-SEA]

Wonder how that would look without the one big rainstorm you guys had.

 

We had two major rain events... one before Christmas and one in January and both resulted in widespread river flooding.   

 

Of course... that is a normal way to get to average precip around here in the winter and those events can't be removed. 

 

And it has not been dry otherwise.   SEA has only had one day this year with 0.00 and that was on 1/1.   Getting close to record territory in terms of persistent rain.    Its rained on 29 out of the last 32 days.

 

And it looks like it will rain on most of the days for the rest of the month as well.

[El_Nina]

We had two major rain events... one before Christmas and one in January and both resulted in widespread river flooding.   

 

Of course... that is a normal way to get to average precip around here in the winter and those events can't be removed. 

 

And it has not been dry otherwise.   SEA has only had one day this year with 0.00 and that was on 1/1.   Getting close to record territory in terms of persistent rain.    Its rained on 29 out of the last 32 days.

 

And it looks like it will rain on most of the days for the rest of the month as well.

Portland had it's two driest years back to back in 2018 and 2019. A lot of our rain has been coming all at once rather than being spread out over time, too. They've been complaining about that in California a lot because when you get all the rain at once it just goes straight into the ocean rather than seeping into the ground.

[TT-SEA]

Portland had it's two driest years back to back in 2018 and 2019. A lot of our rain has been coming all at once rather than being spread out over time, too. They've been complaining about that in California a lot because when you get all the rain at once it just goes straight into the ocean rather than seeping into the ground.

 

 

Great... we just need to stop making generalizations about the entire region.   For some of us... its been unusually persistently wet for more than month and that looks to continue.   It makes sense that this would happen after an unusually quiet November.   But we are doing good now in terms of rain and mountain snow.   There are no problems up here.   

 

Not saying you did this specifically.   But its a common issue on this forum.

[OysterPrintout]

GFS ensemble really has this long range pattern nailed down. 

 

[El_Nina]

Great... we just need to stop making generalizations about the entire region.   For some of us... its been unusually persistently wet for more than month and that looks to continue.   It makes sense that this would happen after an unusually quiet November.   But we are doing good now in terms of rain and mountain snow.   There are no problems up here.   

 

Not saying you did this specifically.   But its a common issue on this forum.

No absolutely it's been wetter up there than down here, especially the past month. Our somewhat similar geographical locations are running 70% here average precip and 140% there in the last month. Definitely a contrast.

[MossMan]

GFS ensemble really has this long range pattern nailed down.

 

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Wow!