Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Blizzard777]

Snowmizer...Looks like we are screwed, I just extrapolated.

So let it be written so shall it be done 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just found this pic. This is in gorst at sea level heading to Bremerton to plow. There was 2 feet of snow on the ground at the edge of the puget sound. That is the most snow I've ever seen there. Dad says only time there was more in his life was 68/69. This pic was 02/12/19

[Blizzard777]

We have managed a nice neat parameter down here in the South Sound. It’s what we do 

 

Ok, just wonky radar echo....I assure you it is raining here.  We seem to be getting all the moisture we need now that the cold air is gone.

[Timmy]

Sunny morning here. Up to 44.

 

The last few GFS runs have been fairly chilly in the second half.

maybe mid January was just a warning shot? More mentions of of kona to come? And what ever happened to Kamchatka?

[MossMan]

.5 degrees away from 50!

[MossMan]

.2 degrees away from 50!

[Blizzard777]

.5 degrees away from 50!

   

[Timmy Supercell]

[kokaneekidz]

Just found this pic. This is in gorst at sea level heading to Bremerton to plow. There was 2 feet of snow on the ground at the edge of the puget sound. That is the most snow I've ever seen there. Dad says only time there was more in his life was 68/69. This pic was 02/12/19

If the Chief's make it to Superbowl then 1969 is a great analog. Fwiw

[Deweydog]

maybe mid January was just a warning shot? More mentions of of kona to come? And what ever happened to Kamchatka?

Kamchatka married Kuchera and they had an alcoholic son who lives in La pine.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow up to 50 here. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is not even close to anything interesting at day 10. The cold it was showing in the mid and long range is gone... everything keeps shifting west with each run.

 

[MossMan]

12Z ECMWF is not even close to anything interesting at day 10. The cold is was showing in the mid and long range is gone... everything keeps shifting west with each run.

 

2/15/20.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunny and 51. Heading outside with the fam.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z ECMWF is not even close to anything interesting at day 10. The cold it was showing in the mid and long range is gone... everything keeps shifting west with each run.

 

 

Give it a few days Tim. 

[GHweatherChris]

52 here, shorts and tshirt weather!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

57F with sunshine. Beautiful March day.

[Dave]

Gorgeous out! If it's not gonna be snowy, this is the best alternative.

[Deweydog]

MLK is rolling over in his grave.

[TT-SEA]

52 and partly sunny here... rain over Seattle has no chance of making it out here with the east wind in charge.

[MossMan]

52 and partly sunny here... rain over Seattle has no chance of making it out here with the east wind in charge.

I wish the sun was out here but at least it’s dry and mild...I will take that.

[Deweydog]

Go Hawks!!!

[TT-SEA]

I wish the sun was out here but at least it’s dry and mild...I will take that.

Its raining just to my west but the clouds just break up as the move into the Snoqualmie Valley. Sun has been shining almost all day. Rain lifting north.

 

[Jesse]

Can’t wait for the rain to come back.

[MossMan]

[Omegaraptor]

HIO is at 54 right now. These warm front events seem to always overperform.

[Jesse]

HIO is at 54 right now. These warm front events seem to always overperform.

Rabbits pouring out of hats today.

[ShawniganLake]

12Z ECMWF is not even close to anything interesting at day 10. The cold it was showing in the mid and long range is gone... everything keeps shifting west with each run.

 

Another tough to crack Alaskan vortex!

[ShawniganLake]

Still in the 30s here. Raining with about 10” of slush on the ground

[AJ1013]

Big heatwave here in Tucson. Low was 41F this morning, high will be roughly 75F which will be the warmest day since the first week of December. 

[Requiem]

It’s breezy here...looks like Redding was also breezy. Sad. #newbakersfield

 

But for real, the East winds are kicking up here.

[TT-SEA]

It's clear this morning and there was no snow overnight... but I-90 in North Bend is still a mess.

 

 

A little improved 4 days later.   A foot of snow is gone in the valley.

 

[Deweydog]

More and more evidence coming in that supports the theory of snow melting in temperatures ABOVE 32 degrees Fahrenheit. This could be big moving forward with the decade-long Nina on the doorstep.

[TT-SEA]

More and more evidence coming in that supports the theory of snow melting in temperatures ABOVE 32 degrees Fahrenheit. This could be big moving forward with the decade-long Nina on the doorstep.

Fast melt without rain... a little unusual around here.

[Omegaraptor]

Nice day.

[Guest LaPineLurker]

Tim is probably still dreaming of Hawaii. How can the 50s be warm enough.

[TT-SEA]

Tim is probably still dreaming of Hawaii. How can the 50s be warm enough.

 

 

Odd statement.   Its all relative.   It feels very warm today compared to this past week.     This is about a nice as it gets for January.

[Phil]

If it were true wouldn't there be any kind of effect of global temperatures? The globe continues to warm with weather becoming less and less extreme by the year.

This type of linear thinking is silly. The system’s response to any external forcing (whether it be solar forcing or something else) is probably state dependent. IE: The same forcing can trigger a *completely different* response depending on the system state at the time.

 

There is a heavy, resonant, fluid-inertial component to the system. The warming trend that began in the 1600s is a result of a multitude of factors, solar forcing being just one of them. It’s a very dynamic, convoluted process..in fact the upper oceans/lower troposphere “warming” have often (historically) been a symptom of the system shedding heat/priming itself to do so. This is both true in the shorter term (see El Niño) and in much longer term oscillations of similar dynamic structure.

[MossMan]

Just hit 50.0!

 

One week ago today it was about to start snowing.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Fast melt without rain... a little unusual around here.

 

There's been almost no rain here since the snow started, but just piles of snow and a bit of snow on the sheltered grass left. High dewpoints and strong winds destroy snow.