Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[BLI snowman]

Portland had it's two driest years back to back in 2018 and 2019. A lot of our rain has been coming all at once rather than being spread out over time, too. They've been complaining about that in California a lot because when you get all the rain at once it just goes straight into the ocean rather than seeping into the ground.

 

 

It's been very persistently wet and cloudy around Portland. I had measurable rain every day December 31-January 19 and PDX is not far behind at 18/20 with the other two days seeing a trace. The rain has just been very light for the most part.

[TT-SEA]

Still a little snow left here and sandy roads. Filtered sun through high clouds and 50 currently.

 

[Omegaraptor]

No absolutely it's been wetter up there than down here, especially the past month. Our somewhat similar geographical locations are running 70% here average precip and 140% there in the last month. Definitely a contrast.

That AR that hit WA and missed OR certainly helped.

 

It’s certainly been very cloudy in the last month even for the PNW. However since November was unusually sunny you kinda have to expect it to go the other way sometimes. After all the PNW is the cloudiest place in the country in winter.

[Deweydog]

The pavement has a really bizarre look to it today around town. Can’t quite put my finger on exactly why.

[MossMan]

Still a little snow left here and sandy roads. Filtered sun through high clouds and 50 currently.

 

I don’t think Jesse wants us to post pics of our snow anymore.

[MossMan]

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

Euro looks pretty wet the rest of the month. This would put PDX over 7 inches for January. Good to see!

 

[Phil]

We have a pretty solid window of opportunity coming up in early Feb. Some promising model runs in that time frame and the EPS teleconnection forecasts continue to trend better. Finally a signal for some -WPO which is something that has been lacking this winter, and the PNA goes negative again.

Early Feb might be rushing it a bit.

[Phil]

Holy mustard sauce.

 

[Jesse]

Ice age? Ice age.

[El_Nina]

It's been very persistently wet and cloudy around Portland. I had measurable rain every day December 31-January 19 and PDX is not far behind at 18/20 with the other two days seeing a trace. The rain has just been very light for the most part.

The first 20 days of this year have been pretty wet but that's pocket change compared to having the two driest years ever back to back.

[Phil]

It's basically been a drier version of January 1953, that month also had some arctic air make it down to the border, albeit not as intensely.

 

Upside to that is the cold in AK actually has been impressive for a change. Anchorage is posting a -14 departure right now and is looking at another extended stretch of deep cold. If the month ended today it would be their coldest January on record and 2nd coldest month overall.

How is Alaskan cold an “upside”?

 

That’s terrible for you guys unless there’s large scale forcing to dislodge it like 1989.

[Phil]

It could be sunny for 150 days in a row... and Tim would be scolding people for enjoying the first wet day and invoking an 0.08” rainfall surplus @ SEA as the reason.

 

Likewise... it could be 100*F and sunny every day all summer and he would be happy as a clam.

Fixed.

[TT-SEA]

Fixed.

Not true.

 

I was cheering for rain after only a couple dry weeks last March.

 

And 100 and sunny would be miserable. 75-85 is the sweet spot in the summer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How is Alaskan cold an “upside”?

 

That’s terrible for you guys unless there’s large scale forcing to dislodge it like 1989.

 

At least everyone is not torching. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some pretty massive spread with the GFS ensembles once we get into early February. 

[MossMan]

Early Feb might be rushing it a bit.

We need to rush it! Snowmizer and myself will not be in the state in mid February. We need this to progress right along!!

[Esquimalt]

Not true.

 

I was cheering for rain after only a couple dry weeks last March.

 

And 100 and sunny would be miserable. 75-85 is the sweet spot in the summer.

How’s the long range eps looking?

[TT-SEA]

How’s the long range eps looking?

 

 

Waiting for it to finish... looks about like the 00Z run at 336 hours.  

 

A little bit warmer and more zonal though.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 15... potential is there but not a robust as the 00Z run.

 

Running the loop... it appears that the cold is mostly moving east at this time and ridging is trying to build back in from the SW.

 

 

[mtep]

Took a drive to Silver Lake park a couple hours ago. It's still a winter wonderland over there. If anyone feels like going on a scenic drive through north Whatcom county I highly recommend taking S Pass Rd from Everson to Silver Lake.  https://imgur.com/a/8XLtc3R

[Jesse]

Sort of a nice looking cinnamon bun swirling offshore today.

 

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?sat_500+9

[jcmcgaffey]

Sort of a nice looking cinnamon bun swirling offshore today.

 

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?sat_500+9

Ya I was watching that this morning and was thinking that the storms out in the pacific the last week or so have all looked really beautiful as they have swung into the NW. A lot of low pressures and good rotations.

[Phil]

The insane +AAM deposition in the tropics this month is something you’d expect to see in developing or well-established strong El Niño regimes. In this case I presume the +IOD compensated for the Pacific in maintaining the E-IO subsidence/dual uplift centers in the WPAC/W-IO. Interesting how there are different external conduits into ENSO modes..really is true that ENSOs come in many different flavors and two ENSOs with the exact same ONI value can have wildly different purpose/meaning and characteristics.

[Phil]

Note the increasing amplitude and focus of the WWBs as the seasonal cycle has rendered the warm pool more dominant over the +IOD.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.90.5S-5N.gif

[Deweydog]

The insane +AAM deposition in the tropics this month is something you’d expect to see in developing or well-established strong El Niño regimes. In this case I presume the +IOD compensated for the Pacific in maintaining the E-IO subsidence/dual uplift centers in the WPAC/W-IO. Interesting how there are different external conduits into ENSO modes..really is true that ENSOs come in many different flavors and two ENSOs with the exact same ONI value can have wildly different purpose/meaning and characteristics.

Holy , January!

 

Put simply, AAMIODE-IOWPAC/WIOENSOENSOENSOsONI.

[Requiem]

The insane +AAM deposition in the tropics this month is something you’d expect to see in developing or well-established strong El Niño regimes. In this case I presume the +IOD compensated for the Pacific in maintaining the E-IO subsidence/dual uplift centers in the WPAC/W-IO. Interesting how there are different external conduits into ENSO modes..really is true that ENSOs come in many different flavors and two ENSOs with the exact same ONI value can have wildly different purpose/meaning and characteristics.

What does this mean in layman’s terms?

[Phil]

As easterlies(associated w/ -QBO) continue to descend through the spring/summer, and the tropical tropopause rises/cools over the Pacific, it may act to narrow/intensify the HC/ITCZ over the EPAC and finally complete the move into El Niño that was blocked last year by mature +QBO/feedback by ill-times OKW returns (heart of boreal summer during +PMM).

[BLI snowman]

The first 20 days of this year have been pretty wet but that's pocket change compared to having the two driest years ever back to back.

 

Even with the dry last two years, the 2010s were a wet decade overall with only 2013, 2018, and 2019 being drier than average. Which included four consecutive wet years between 2014-17.

[Phil]

But..the one wrinkle is the super-PV in the stratosphere and the potential for a dynamic final warming (similar effects to a SSW). This could, in theory, produce enough high amplitude intraseasonal activity (MJO et al) to destructively interfere with the climatologically-favored lower frequency progression.

 

The “spring barrier” is real. Definitely not making a definitive ENSO call until the stratosphere/NAM/RWB-MJO structures are sorted out for the F/M/A timeframe.

[BLI snowman]

How is Alaskan cold an “upside”?

 

That’s terrible for you guys unless there’s large scale forcing to dislodge it like 1989.

 

Really refreshingly nice to see that region cold again actually. It's literally been years (March 2017 and then spring 2013 prior to that) since they had any meaningful cold anomalies at any time of the year. Been a truly runaway stretch of unprecedented warmth up there. 

 

And historically, Alaskan cold and good PNW winter weather are not mutually exclusive. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Euro looks pretty wet the rest of the month. This would put PDX over 7 inches for January. Good to see!

 

471A2C5D-8823-4AA0-AE76-7590862E8928.jpeg

we went from January 2018 all the way to December 2019 without a month above 4” of rainfall per month here in Tacoma. Now it looks like we will have back to back wetter than normal months finally.

[MossMan]

What does this mean in layman’s terms?

It either means that we are entering a multi year super Niño for the ages, or it might snow in February. Still trying to decode it.

[TacomaWaWx]

12Z EPS at day 15... potential is there but not a robust as the 00Z run.

 

Running the loop... it appears that the cold is mostly moving east at this time and ridging is trying to build back in from the SW.

 

 

I’m hoping we can score again in February but I’ve already seen 1.5” of snow which is better than several dud years I can remember. Olympia to Seattle May not have done well but Seattle north did really well this January.

[SnarkyGoblin]

Little bit off-topic - but check out these videos:

 

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/incredible-sights-from-newfoundland-after-30-of-snow-fall-in-record-blizzard

 

30 inches of snow in almost 100mph winds! That would be quite the experience.

[El_Nina]

Even with the dry last two years, the 2010s were a wet decade overall with only 2013, 2018, and 2019 being drier than average. Which included four consecutive wet years between 2014-17.

The dry seasons have been much longer and hotter as well.

2014 and 2015 were a couple of the worst snowpack years on record for Oregon, despite a ton of rain during the winter.

[Requiem]

we went from January 2018 all the way to December 2019 without a month above 4” of rainfall per month here in Tacoma. Now it looks like we will have back to back wetter than normal months finally.

If we’re lucky PDX will have an above average rainfall month as well. We sadly missed out on the AR in December (among other things).

[TigerWoodsLibido]

48/39 so far.  We had a +9.5 departure yesterday and are currently at +3.9 for the month to date. Currently 11th warmest on record but that will likely go up.

[Deweydog]

If we’re going to do it, let’s do it right.