Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

Long range more snow

 

 

[Jbolin]

Good to see you, Jb.

 

12z ECMWF in 6 hours 57 minutes

Thanks man, it's been a rough 2 weeks for me with a seemingly unending battery of tests but only one more test to go before a "game plan" is worked out/on between my Dr. and I.

[Gradient Keeper]

Thanks man, it's been a rough 2 weeks for me with a seemingly unending battery of tests but only one more test to go before a "game plan" is worked out/on between my Dr. and I.

You're welcome. I can't imagine man. You will remain in my thoughts and prayers. Stay strong.

[Cloud]

Should point out the 6z GFS is showing it’s in the mid-30’s Sunday at 4pm for most of W. WA. Any snowfall would not accumulate under 500’. Temps would then fall rapidly after sunset and hopefully there’s still some moisture left. This is the coldest it’s been in the last few runs and it’s certainly trending colder, it’s a good 3-4 degrees colder compared to 0z run at this hour.

 

Good news.

[Cloud]

LR is certainly ripe with potential.

[Jbolin]

You're welcome. I can't imagine man. You will remain in my thoughts and prayers. Stay strong.

Thanks Rob, I appreciate it as well as the other member's thoughts/wishes. 

[Meatyorologist]

A few notes before I head offline:

 

• Lots of rain in the short term. Like, several inches outside of rain shadowed regions, but even those areas will score from time to time as precip flow will change in direction
• Saturday night is pointless unless your name is Tim and you live in foothill bushwhack country where you need oxygen masks to breathe and if you jump you'll get lost in orbit (okay that's hyperbole, but you get my point: 800'+ snow levels)
• Sunday night colder air behind vortmax will brush by, along with some moisture and upper-level energy. Could be some spotty snow down to sea level, especially in the PSCZ and up in the foothills/on top of hills
• Sunday/Sun night has been trending colder on GFS, but not by much. Saturday front is also moving ahead in timing at an alarming pace.
• People who love our microclimates (like me) are in for a treat Sunday/Sunday night. There will undoubtedly be certain places, possibly within the Seattle border, that get snow simply due to elevation while areas just 100 or so feet lower get nothing. 200-300' snow levels during the day, dropping to sea level overnight
• Possible overrunning event later next week. Too early to get excited for that, but could be some interesting weather.
• Plenty of potential in the 8-12 day timeframe. Will keep an eye on what models do, but an idea of some Alaskan blocking and a digging trough has proliferated throughout the modelsphere. EPS is promising.

 

Related: this is one of my favorite meteorological pictures I have. It shows Capitol Hill snowcapped like a mountain after some convective snow. The snow level parked itself around 250'. Could this be a common scene around the region Monday morning?

[TT-SEA]

Great post Meatyorologist!   You had another very informative post yesterday as well. 

[jakerepp]

All I can see when I look at the new Word and Outlook Icons are snowfall rates. 

[TT-SEA]

In an extremely wet month like this... it becomes apparent that the WRCC maps underestimate positive anomalies.

SEA is at +2.57 and WFO SEA is at +2.11 inches for the month and this maps shows its drier than normal in the Seattle area. That is simply not true for any location in western WA this month. Olympia is now at +6.63 inches. It's comical to see this map show it's pretty close to normal there.

 

 

I assume this is because its using many sites and just a few of those not recording precip properly will erroneously drag down the anomalies in that area.   I am not sure how else to explain it... but its always seemed like these maps underestimate precip anomalies and this month illustrates that more distinctly.   There is no debate that its been very wet across all of western WA this month.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Been bouncing between 45F and 46F overnight. On and off rain.

[TacomaWaWx]

Things are looking interesting next month. Hopefully it pans out that way.

[TacomaWaWx]

0.10” so far this morning...8.94” for January.

[TacomaWaWx]

A few notes before I head offline:

 

• Lots of rain in the short term. Like, several inches outside of rain shadowed regions, but even those areas will score from time to time as precip flow will change in direction
• Saturday night is pointless unless your name is Tim and you live in foothill bushwhack country where you need oxygen masks to breathe and if you jump you'll get lost in orbit (okay that's hyperbole, but you get my point: 800'+ snow levels)
• Sunday night colder air behind vortmax will brush by, along with some moisture and upper-level energy. Could be some spotty snow down to sea level, especially in the PSCZ and up in the foothills/on top of hills
• Sunday/Sun night has been trending colder on GFS, but not by much. Saturday front is also moving ahead in timing at an alarming pace.
• People who love our microclimates (like me) are in for a treat Sunday/Sunday night. There will undoubtedly be certain places, possibly within the Seattle border, that get snow simply due to elevation while areas just 100 or so feet lower get nothing. 200-300' snow levels during the day, dropping to sea level overnight
• Possible overrunning event later next week. Too early to get excited for that, but could be some interesting weather.
• Plenty of potential in the 8-12 day timeframe. Will keep an eye on what models do, but an idea of some Alaskan blocking and a digging trough has proliferated throughout the modelsphere. EPS is promising.

Related: this is one of my favorite meteorological pictures I have. It shows Capitol Hill snowcapped like a mountain after some convective snow. The snow level parked itself around 250'. Could this be a common scene around the region Monday morning?

hillswhie.png

I’ve seen this type of scene many times at my house over the years. It’ll be snowing and sticking at my house but a quick 5 minute walk down the hill it’s not sticking at all. Probably the way it’ll be on Sunday. Either way it’s very interesting that we are in yet another possible snow situation for the 3rd time in 4 years on the Super Bowl.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Seems like a pretty sharp north-south cutoff on the Tuesday overrunning event.

[Cloud]

Not really seeing much differences on the 12z for the weekend stuff with the exception of it running 1-2 degrees warmer. It may not mean much but in a marginal event like this one, as it is starting to look like it, the +/- 1 or 2 degrees makes a difference on who gets snow and snow accumulation Sunday night.  As such, we are seeing less snow accumulation over Puget Sound this run. 

[Esquimalt]

Seems like a pretty sharp north-south cutoff on the Tuesday overrunning event.

How much are you expecting here?

[Cloud]

Outside of 7 days, the GOA ridge is developing much much quicker. It looks decent by Day 9

[Cloud]

Colder air settles back in by Day 9.

 

 

[Cloud]

This is a pretty significant development with the GOA ridge on this run inside 10 days but it doesn't follow the trend of the previous runs so it may just be an outlier. Would like to see how this continue to trend and if it's in line with the ensembles. 

[Blizzard777]

LR is certainly ripe with potential.

LR.....Local Region??? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, looks like we could see some chilly weather in February. Sunday is looking really snowy IMBY now. 

[Cloud]

LR.....Local Region??? 

Long range?

[Blizzard777]

Long range?

Copy......so simple 

[Cloud]

Here we go again. Wow. 

 

[El_Nina]

0.08" since midnight makes it 11.58" for January. We'll make it over a foot once the month is over.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Full on arctic blast next weekend on this run. 

 

[Cloud]

It's a full blown arctic blast for everyone. 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Definitely interesting how it seems like all the models are showing colder weather coming up now. This winter may not be done for yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Now that we are moving into February it seems plausible. 

[Cloud]

Gotta run but this weekend still looking marginal for those at sea level, should be great for Tim. 

 

Inside 10 days, the GOA ridge merger is happening a lot sooner and it stays there giving us a full blown arctic blast starting second week of Feb. 

 

That was an extremely fun 12z run. Take it as a huge grain of salt though, need to see how this trend. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Gotta run but this weekend still looking marginal for those at sea level, should be great for Tim. 

 

Inside 10 days, the GOA ridge merger is happening a lot sooner and it stays there giving us a full blown arctic blast starting second week of Feb. 

 

That was an extremely fun 12z run. Take it as a huge grain of salt though, need to see how this trend.

 

yes lol we all know about what happened 2 weeks ago. Definitely not getting excited yet. Early next week looks good though should be fun for some people atleast.

[El_Nina]

I'm liking my chances at a dusting Sunday evening.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm liking my chances at a dusting Sunday evening.

 

Yeah, the GFS has really upped precip amounts on Sunday. COULD be sub-40 highs in the valley if it were to verify.

[TT-SEA]

Wow... huge improvements on the 12Z GFS.

 

Second week of February is looking very interesting now on most of the models.

[El_Nina]

Yeah, the GFS has really upped precip amounts on Sunday. COULD be sub-40 highs in the valley if it were to verify.

Will you be in Oregon by then?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Will you be in Oregon by then?

 

Yes. Almost perfect timing. Getting back mid-day Friday, which should be a nice day it appears. 

[Omegaraptor]

Here we go again

 

Looks like Puget Sounders will finally get some long-awaited sun... just maybe not with the temperatures they were hoping for.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It will change a million times of course, but the long range would be pretty nice. Probably lots of sunny days in the 40s with cold overnight lows. That is a massive ridge it shows setting up. 

[Blizzard777]

45*

mtd rainfall 7.16 

I feel like we’re in the middle of rollercoaster ride ( had a few fun events but not the major event) and Mother Nature is clicking us up a hill ( we our primed with moisture). Will she gently release us out of this wet pattern or will this turn into a wild chaotic downhill ride?!?

Active pattern continues and that make me a happy camper