2/4 - 2/7 Multi-Wave Storm System

[jaster220]

Looks great here to! That’s a definite shift NW...

 

 

12z GFS 10:1 and Kuchera

 

Nice to see the GFS back from it's vacation at Hilton Head 

[bud2380]

here comes the NW trend... usually followed by a SE trend in 24 hours. 

[Tom]

Looking closer at the 12z GGEM, its certainly painting a wild looking Lehs/LES signal on the backside...

 

 

 

[Tom]

12z GEFS...NW shift is legit...

 

 

 

[jaster220]

After all the drama and negativity from yesterday’s runs, they are quickly being eroded today. It’s funny how emotional one can get from this hobby. Patience is a virtue.

 

Talk about a "comeback storm". That GFS loop of runs is laughable, and yes, one of the reasons I'd all but written off anything sig with this event. Sigh..models. You made a great post wrt the Low-res vs High-res models this morning. That was great intel on the topic. They may strike kismet on an upgrade if they keep the lower resolution in play until say, h72 then switch to the higher resolution for the near-term. I think in their zealousness to improve the tool, they went to the extreme by trying to pin-point too closely "amounts" at longer and longer ranges. The models are "too sensitive" for their own good now at d3+ imho. Just my comment to your great post this early morning. 

 

That 12z GFS via Kuchera map is more like what I'd expect from this scenario. Let's hope we're onto something here. If wave 2 goes big/ger, maybe wave 3 doesn't happen or is a lot weaker than models had it yesterday. Other than a Miller-B x-fer, I don't remember too many situations where a good hit here was followed by a big event immediately on the EC. Maybe my memory is clouded, but nothing really comes to mind. Usually it's us or them. 

[bud2380]

UKIE holding firm on the track.  If anything a slight sag south from 00z.  

 

[Tom]

Talk about a "comeback storm". That GFS loop of runs is laughable, and yes, one of the reasons I'd all but written off anything sig with this event. Sigh..models. You made a great post wrt the Low-res vs High-res models this morning. That was great intel on the topic. They may strike kismet on an upgrade if they keep the lower resolution in play until say, h72 then switch to the higher resolution for the near-term. I think in their zealousness to improve the tool, they went to the extreme by trying to pin-point too closely "amounts" at longer and longer ranges. The models are "too sensitive" for their own good now at d3+ imho. Just my comment to your great post this early morning. 

 

That 12z GFS via Kuchera map is more like what I'd expect from this scenario. Let's hope we're onto something here. If wave 2 goes big/ger, maybe wave 3 doesn't happen or is a lot weaker than models had it yesterday. Other than a Miller-B hand x-fer, I don't remember too many situations where a good hit here was followed by a big event immediately on the EC. Maybe my memory is clouded, but nothing really comes to mind. Usually it's us or them. 

Appreciate that bud...this particular set up can be a learning lesson when having to deal with multiple waves along a tight thermal boundary.  Next weeks pattern will be another good test to both the ICON/NAVY bc of a similar pattern setting up along a thermal gradient.  The higher rez models compute so much more data that it probably doesn't do it justice.  The saying, "keep it simple, stupid" comes to mind when looking back at what just has transpired over the past 24-36 hours in the model world.  I agree, maybe they should tweak their coding to allow for lower resolution post d3???

 

 

IMO, if the second wave is stronger and doesn't drag its feet with the energy along the gulf states, then the third wave should fade.  Take a look at the 12z GEFS members and suddenly all of them have a wound up second wave.

 

[Tom]

12z Ukie also showing the Lehs/LES potential...

 

[jaster220]

 

 

12z GEFS...NW shift is legit...

 

And for once, the d3/4 significant shift is our friend.    Can the dynamics improve as well, and make this the biggie we've been hoping for?  Surprised how much snow survived 51F and full sun even out in the farm fields, not just shaded spots. Then temps plummeted into the upper 20s, another good sign of a change of flavor. Sky currently here at lunchtime has those wispy high clouds indicative of the Jet nearby. All good omens in my experience. 

[jaster220]

GFS n NAM look good.

 

GFS looks fantastic. Hoping others will follow suit with the beefier amount up our way, vs just down south. Sure glad Stacsh in his optimism called Storm/winter ova! Now I can keep all his snow plus my own. 

[jaster220]

Appreciate that bud...this particular set up can be a learning lesson when having to deal with multiple waves along a tight thermal boundary.  Next weeks pattern will be another good test to both the ICON/NAVY bc of a similar pattern setting up along a thermal gradient.  The higher rez models compute so much more data that it probably doesn't do it justice.  The saying, "keep it simple, stupid" comes to mind when looking back at what just has transpired over the past 24-36 hours in the model world.  I agree, maybe they should tweak their coding to allow for lower resolution post d3???

 

 

IMO, if the second wave is stronger and doesn't drag its feet with the energy along the gulf states, then the third wave should fade.  Take a look at the 12z GEFS members and suddenly all of them have a wound up second wave.

 

 

I'm not sure I remember seeing a panel where every member was such a cc of the other? I suppose it happens close range but they're rarely posted near term. Great look there! Giddy-up! 

[Niko]

GFS looks fantastic. Hoping others will follow suit with the beefier amount up our way, vs just down south. Sure glad Stacsh in his optimism called Storm/winter ova! Now I can keep all his snow plus my own. 

 

   

 

[jaster220]

Interesting. Apparently we're not the only ones bemoaning the horrid model performance. From a poster at AmWx

 

 

I don't think I've ever seen this much consistent inconsistency in the models in winter over the conus in my short years following.  1 or 2 hundred miles on tracks this far out, sure.  But we've been seeing 3 to 5 hundred mile to shredded nothingness this winter.  I know in the tropics models always struggle with weak systems and with weak steering.  There really hasn't been strong ridges and strong lows this season and hardly any deep arctic air dropping down, for a lot of reasons that have been posted, and the baroclinic zone has been very low this winter IMO .  I wonder if this  is causing the problem with the models across the conus.  With such a consistent weak split flow across the conus, as fine a resolution as some have (and that is totally subjective) it's just not fine enough to whittle out the details and/or how much climo is influencing some of them (I'm not sure how much climo data they put weight on).  Regardless, if this keeps up, I think this may be one of the worse model verification winters in a long time because d**n near none of them have verified, especially in our area,  for snowfall, or QPF for that matter, outside 24 hours.  They're not even verifying that well in the mountains out to the W/NW where it should be close to cut and dry.  The mountains in BC should have about 800 inches of snow by now lol.  Just my armchair 2 cents but something is really strange this winter model wise.  Maybe it will snap back late and cover some of the models butts, however, as has been posted, the long range models don't look that good.  But then again 2 months ago the long range looked better than it is right now.  If this pans out this may be a winter to study the complete failure IMO of the "new and improved" models across the board.  I'll wait for someone smarter than me (which are many) and read the book.

[snowstorm83]

Looking closer at the 12z GGEM, its certainly painting a wild looking Lehs/LES signal on the backside...

 

 

 

 

Love that inverse lollipop right over Lincoln 

[jaster220]

Love that inverse lollipop right over Lincoln 

 

Tom's snow had to be extracted from somewhere.    (j/k ofc) Thx for taking one for the Mod nonetheless. 

 

Going to post the overnight here for posterity to see the contrast with the next one 

 

- Light snow possible Wednesday night and Thursday -

A medium range guidance consensus suggests that a developing low

pressure system over the Arklatex region early Wednesday will move

northeast and tap abundant gulf moisture. Trends in latest

guidance suggest that several weaker low pressure waves will move

ne and potentially bring our area some light snow Wednesday night.

 

The main sfc low will become better organized over the TN valley

region and continue to strengthen as it moves ne to the mid

Atlantic region Thursday. Our area may continue to see some

lighter deformation zone snow Thursday well to the northwest of

the sfc low track. However guidance trends suggest the main low

and heavier pcpn will stay well to the se of our fcst area.

 

The weather pattern will become more tranquil again Friday into

the weekend though some light snow showers and flurries may

linger.

[Tom]

12z Euro on board...will post maps soon...

[Niko]

EURO looking very good for some at hr 60.......

[Hawkeye]

The Euro even gets an inch back to Cedar Rapids.

[Hawkeye]

That's a real nice hit for Oklahoma and Texas.

 

[Niko]

Bullseye!!!! on the EURO.

[Tom]

12z Euro...as @BrianJK once said, the Euro is "back to its senses"...

 

 

 

 

[Tony]

12z Euro...as @BrianJK once said, the Euro is "back to its senses"...

Could be one of the better/best event for the winter excluding Halloween of course. Would like to see more precip out of this but at least we have something to track.

[Tom]

Could be one of the better/best event for the winter excluding Halloween of course. Would like to see more precip out of this but at least we have something to track.

Today's 12z runs definitely bring us back in the game and I'm hoping to see the lake be our "friend" this go-around.  Looks like we'll finally have some decent arctic air to tap and a solid northeasterly flow for more than just a few hours.  This is one of the better set ups we've seen in recent years to get both synoptic snow and Lehs/LES.  Hopefully the models juice up in the coming 24-36 hours as the system gets going down in the deep southern states.  The GOM has been a big influence this year so I wouldn't discount it as we get closer to the event.

[Minny_Weather]

God please no I don't want ice.

[jaster220]

Bullseye!!!! on the EURO.

 

SEMI magnet set on High Pwr I see..

[jaster220]

Today's 12z runs definitely bring us back in the game and I'm hoping to see the lake be our "friend" this go-around.  Looks like we'll finally have some decent arctic air to tap and a solid northeasterly flow for more than just a few hours.  This is one of the better set ups we've seen in recent years to get both synoptic snow and Lehs/LES.  Hopefully the models juice up in the coming 24-36 hours as the system gets going down in the deep southern states.  The GOM has been a big influence this year so I wouldn't discount it as we get closer to the event.

 

WSWatches expanded SW in TX all the way to the Mexico border.  Word is today's 12z runs included sampling of the trough. Tomorrow's 12z runs for the imbedded shortwave. Could that final facet be the "juice-up" wild card?? 

[Clinton]

12z EPS mean

[mlgamer]

Clinton, I literally came here to see if you had posted the 12z Euro Ens. and BINGO here they are.  Just wanted you to know I appreciate you posting these whenever somethin' is a brewin'.

[Clinton]

Clinton, I literally came here to see if you had posted the 12z Euro Ens. and BINGO here they are.  Just wanted you to know I appreciate you posting these whenever somethin' is a brewin'.

No problem man!

[Clinton]

SREF mean continues to increase amounts over Oklahoma and Texas and also KC.

[jaster220]

SREF mean continues to increase amounts over Oklahoma and Texas and also KC.

 

Wonder if that's due to the pivot or what exactly? Either way, can't be a bad sign for those of us further down stream

[bud2380]

About 25% of the Euro ensembles bring the 2" line up to Iowa City/CR.  So maybe an outside chance we sneak 1-2" out of this. 

[uticasnow]

Accu-weather on WWJ Radio for Detroit area is talkling Sleet and freezing rain, no mention of snow

[jaster220]

Haha, I guess this entire event from TX to MI falls thru the 2-day gap due to WPC's 5 day schedule. 

 

[jaster220]

Accu-weather on WWJ Radio for Detroit area is talkling Sleet and freezing rain, no mention of snow

 

Apparently they've not heard of the Detroit snowstorm magnet this winter? 

[jaster220]

18z NAM = baby steps towards the globals. Snow swath now crossing the southern Mitt border. 

[Tom]

12z Euro Control...

 

 

[jaster220]

Tom's snow had to be extracted from somewhere.    (j/k ofc) Thx for taking one for the Mod nonetheless. 

 

Going to post the overnight here for posterity to see the contrast with the next one 

 

As expected, quite the different tone this afternoon..

 

- Accumulating snow Wed night to Thu am

This storm system is looking stronger with time. Basically a

strengthening low pressure system tracks northeastward through

Ohio. We will be on the cold side of this storm...so snow is

expected. It does look like the upper jet will be coupled so the

lift will be deep. With a trowal overhead...this will be a

prolonged event with snow arriving roughly 21z to 23z Wed then

pulling away 15z to 18z Thu for the synoptic part. Lake effect on

the backside could cause it to linger longer. Impacts are looking

increasingly likely...especially closer to the low track.

[jaster220]

12z Euro Control...

 

Nice LEhS signal for S Lake Michigan regions. 

 

Also, the expanding shield as it heads our way is very good signal imho. As GRR notes, it should be a well-developed classic wrapped-up storm. 

[Niko]

SEMI magnet set on High Pwr I see..