2/4 - 2/7 Multi-Wave Storm System

[Hawkeye]

12z UK... there would be more snow in that eastern band after 144 hrs.

 

[Hawkeye]

Tom, that's last night's 00z run.  Pivotal has an annoying tendency to default to the previous run.  You have to be sure to change it to the current run.

[Tom]

Tom, that's last night's 00z run.  Pivotal has an annoying tendency to default to the previous run.  You have to be sure to change it to the current run.

D**n, your right...my bad...

[Tom]

12z Ukie...still showing that developing comma head though just farther east this run...

 

 

 

 

Wow, the Ukie deepens it down to the low 970's!  972mb storm near Cincinnati, OH...

 

 

[Tom]

12z GEFS...weak and SE...a majority of the members don't develop till late in the game...there is another feature that is showing up in a lot of the members and a rotating piece of energy dropping in from the north which has happened in previous LRC cycles and could lay down a couple more inches of snow.  Might consider extending that into this thread since it seems to be influencing this storm.

 

 

 

[Clinton]

12z CMC still holding on to the 3 waves blast Niko and does ok for many.

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

 

[Niko]

12z CMC still holding on to the 3 waves blast Niko and does ok for many.

Another double digit snowstorm for mby??!! Wow!

[Tom]

The subtle difference in today's 12z Ukie run and last night's is the energy that dives south out of the Upper MW.  Last night's run showed more seperation which allowed the southern energy to deepen quicker and more on it's own.

 

 

 

 

Today's run, same time stamp, you can see that same energy in the Plains is farther south and is influencing the southern stream energy...

 

[Mi_Matthew]

Yet another thread the needle event and right now we're holding the needle in SEMI, sure hope this holds.

[uticasnow]

It will change 5 times at least between now and then so don't get your hopes up!

[Tom]

The 12z Euro is trending stronger with the HP over the GL's...prob not going to cut NW as much this run...

 

 

[Hawkeye]

Euro is backtracking a bit this run.  The northern part of the western energy gets a bit more caught up in the westerlies again, which ultimately leads to the entire mess sliding eastward in a more positively-tilted way.

[Clinton]

12z Euro

[Clinton]

12z EC and EPS mean

 

[Niko]

Kinda hard to segregate these waves for next week. Hopefully, it becomes one strong wave and call it at that.

[The Snowman]

Based on this winter's trends of slight-chance-of-snow events turning into 0.5 - 1.0" and 6"+ forecasts turning into 2-4", an early 1" call for Omaha shouldn't be too far off the mark when all's said and done

Might be a bit too high at this rate

[jaster220]

Looks like it begins to neg tilt a little past this timeframe. I just got this feeling this storm is going to blow up somewhere across the OHV.

 

Define "blow up" pls? 

[jaster220]

The 12z Euro is trending stronger with the HP over the GL's...prob not going to cut NW as much this run...

 

You mean I might actually get a favorable HP for once? Woo Hoo! 

[jaster220]

Yet another thread the needle event and right now we're holding the needle in SEMI, sure hope this holds.

 

It will change 5 times at least between now and then so don't get your hopes up!

 

I mentioned this one's all about timing being just right, thus why I was hesitant to trigger a thread myself. Still, things haven't gotten dire yet, and some of those GEFS members are really impressive for SEMI. D-town may just score again! Got a hot hand this winter

[Niko]

I mentioned this one's all about timing being just right, thus why I was hesitant to trigger a thread myself. Still, things haven't gotten dire yet, and some of those GEFS members are really impressive for SEMI. D-town may just score again! Got a hot hand this winter

 

[Grizzcoat]

18Z GFS

[Grizzcoat]

2nd Wave is waving goodbye!!!

[Stacsh]

2nd Wave is waving goodbye!!!

Good. Our office isn’t buying that garbage model.

[jaster220]

The subtle difference in today's 12z Ukie run and last night's is the energy that dives south out of the Upper MW.  Last night's run showed more seperation which allowed the southern energy to deepen quicker and more on it's own.

 

 

 

 

Today's run, same time stamp, you can see that same energy in the Plains is farther south and is influencing the southern stream energy...

 

 

Looks like the main difference is simply that the main energy is just way further S on the 12z run, no?

[Niko]

@Jaster-

 

What do ya think of UKIE......I mean, if this were to happen, then, wow. One heck of a low baro

 

[GDR]

Good. Our office isn’t buying that garbage model.

true that I always go with the one that’s good for my area!

[Clinton]

18z Euro weaker and much slower with second wave.

[clintbeed1993]

I'm sorry people but this ISN'T a good winter weather pattern. Honestly it's garbage and only good for weak strung out waves with sloppy nuisance snows.  Then it warms up again later next week. Straight trash

[Niko]

18z Euro weaker and much slower with second wave.

Your area looks like something will give next week. Very interesting bud!

 

[Mi_Matthew]

NAM trending north with the first wave over last few runs. The globals that suppress the first wave are much more amped with second or third. Just taking a guess that the NAM would fall into the suppressed 2nd/3rd wave camp.

[Hawkeye]

NAM is crap for Iowa.  It has the northern stream grabbing the western energy and stretching it out into nothing.  Last night's 00z models may have been just a little tease.

[jaster220]

@Jaster-

 

What do ya think of UKIE......I mean, if this were to happen, then, wow. One heck of a low baro

 

 

Well, it kinda depends on where it goes from there? Verbatim, that's a bit too SE for most of SMI unless it takes a hard left and shoots due N from there. I think at this range, best to just consider it a nice eye candy map and leave it at that. 

[GDR]

Nam is crap for just about everyone

[Madtown]

Not the models...but this winter is crap

[Tom]

00z ICON looking interesting...

[Hawkeye]

The GFS is awful.  It doesn't even try to hold any energy back.  It's positive/strung-out energy from the start.

[Clinton]

00z ICON looking interesting...

Has a real nice comma head with that second wave.

[Madtown]

Only real hope is we are in the 5 day range where everything seems to fall apart before it slowly comes back together by 2 or 1 day out.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS is actually getting worse. (If that is even possible).