2/4 - 2/7 Multi-Wave Storm System

[jaster220]

Kinda wanted this to be all in one storm, instead of separate waves and breaks in between. But I guess we have to accept any snow in this type of Winter this year. Got a good friend of mine in Montreal, CA and he told me just now that they are expecting more than a foot of snow from this same storm system.

 

Yep, it gets better east of us, and SW of us, and...

 

When it's not your season, everything's a struggle 

 

Very surprised at the maps Tom posted showing snow shield still going Thu evening and Friday morning even!  My headline ends at 10 am tomorrow. 

[jaster220]

At Niko

 

Hesitancy by offices like my own, CLE, and DTX may have something to do with the elevated DGZ not being favorable for decent dendrites. Most likely to be a bunch of sugar-sand stuff that will be quite dense, but not stack efficiently. What the models are showing as 4-6"  based on temp profiles alone would in actuality be more like 2-3" thus borderline WWA levels especially when taking into account the long duration and lack of intense rates. That was in the negative AFD from GRR yesterday pm fwiw. 

[Niko]

At Niko

 

Hesitancy by offices like my own, CLE, and DTX may have something to do with the elevated DGZ not being favorable for decent dendrites. Most likely to be a bunch of sugar-sand stuff that will be quite dense, but not stack efficiently. What the models are showing as 4-6"  based on temp profiles alone would in actuality be more like 2-3" thus borderline WWA levels especially when taking into account the long duration and lack of intense rates. That was in the negative AFD from GRR yesterday pm fwiw. 

Good point!  Still think we have a shot here at 3-5", especially towards Detroit Metro.

[Stacsh]

Good point! Still think we have a shot here at 3-5", especially towards Detroit Metro.

Closer to the Low the better rates for sure.

[CentralNebWeather]

My brother texted me from the west side of the KC metro on the Kansas side.  Not a flake at his house.  Looking at radar, the heavy returns are southeast of KC.  Unless something else develops, much of KC will be missed, especially north and west it looks like.  I like to look at the KC Scout website of web cams (video) to see where it is or isn't snowing.

[Andie]

Sleet/Snow just west of me and refuses to move East.

So, screwed again unless something happens tonight.

 

Currently 43*. 28* tonight.

 

Snow and sleet is over Abilene and has been there since dawn. Looks like I missed my one lousy chance for snow.

[OKwx2k4]

Sleet/Snow just west of me and refuses to move East.

So, screwed again unless something happens tonight.

 

Currently 43*. 28* tonight.

 

Snow and sleet is over Abilene and has been there since dawn. Looks like I missed my one lousy chance for snow.

Same boat here Andie. 33° rain. The worst kind of rain.

[OKwx2k4]

Literally this close...

[MIKEKC]

Forecast for KC was a total bust. Called for 1-2 inches snow yesterday and then 1-3 today...100 percent chance of snow each day, I saw 3 flakes.

 

I’m interested in seeing how the local mets own it? I know one will say his forecast verified because we had one period of light snow. He never admits to being wrong.

 

The reason this forecast miss will be more noticeable is the fact that the parade was today and everyone prepared for snow accumulations. That’s all every station talked about, what we will we do with the accumulations before, during, and after the parade. So, more folks were weather alert then your average forecast for any given day.

 

For all getting snow today, have some fun!!

[CentralNebWeather]

Forecast for KC was a total bust. Called for 1-2 inches snow yesterday and then 1-3 today...100 percent chance of snow each day, I saw 3 flakes.

 

I’m interested in seeing how the local mets own it? I know one will say his forecast verified because we had one period of light snow. He never admits to being wrong.

 

The reason this forecast miss will be more noticeable is the fact that the parade was today and everyone prepared for snow accumulations. That’s all every station talked about, what we will we do with the accumulations before, during, and after the parade. So, more folks were weather alert then your average forecast for any given day.

 

For all getting snow today, have some fun!!

That has to be frustrating.  I feel your pain.  Happens here more times than I would ever want to count.  Has happened twice in the last week.  Still work to be done in the forecasting field.  Hopefully improvements to US models will occur.

[shakjen]

just started to snow here. But it looks like i will be right on the north edge. Don't see me getting the 1-3" they are calling for.

[jaster220]

"...so, you're saying there's a chance.." 

 

 

This snow tonight is from a coupled upper jet in combination with
moisture flowing north over the warm front to our south, ahead of
the surface wave developing over western Kentucky. The moisture
being lifted over the warm front is why the I-94 area is expecting
the greater snowfall amounts (2 to 3 inches). Meanwhile the jet
lift event is what will cause the light snow band near I-96 into
Thursday. So the glitch is the southern stream jet core is
expected to increase to near 200 knots over northern LK Huron by
midday Thursday.This results in strong FGEN just east of our
forecast area Thursday afternoon. The upper level system is
developing strongly at that point. It is more than possible snow
from that developing surface system may get as far west as central
Lower Michigan. If this happens we may end up with more snow in
the I-69 area than we are currently forecasting. This is just
something to watch tomorrow.

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

I see you've joined the headline party bud! 'grats  

[Minny_Weather]

Good returns over me right now but dry air at the surface is working its magic. 26°F.

[Mi_Matthew]

@ The Mitt peeps...

 

By all accounts this initial wave is faster than forecast. Any thoughts on what if any effect this would have on the secondary wave's impacts here? A lot of moving pieces...I have no idea if faster is good or bad.

[Minny_Weather]

After an hour or so under returns, I'm finally seeing flakes. 28.9*F.

[Minny_Weather]

Radar looks good out to the West. All of us in NW OH and SE MI may end up overachieving on totals. Especially juicy band stretching from Kokomo to Ft. Wayne moving Northeast.

 

Already a dusting down here. Snow is blowing like crazy cuz of the wind, so none of it is staying put really. 28.4*F.

[Andie]

Same boat here Andie. 33° rain. The worst kind of rain.

My radar looks the same right now. 33*. But it’s dropping and moisture moving East. May get a whiff of sleet.

[Plowguy-dupage county]

I have nothing here. Some on and off snow squalls of very fine snow. Has not amounted to anything. But i believe the snow here is to come later.

[jaster220]

@ The Mitt peeps...

 

By all accounts this initial wave is faster than forecast. Any thoughts on what if any effect this would have on the secondary wave's impacts here? A lot of moving pieces...I have no idea if faster is good or bad.

 

Traditionally, early starts were a good sign while waiting and waiting on snow to begin was never a good sign. Snow set in 90 mins ahead of schedule and is coming down at a nice moderate clip with perhaps an inch or close already. Roads slickened up in a hurry too. Leaving the office in Jackson there were only a few flurries but I drove into pixie dust before Albion, then by Marshall it was coming down good and with a legit 25F temp sticking on everything. Good luck to all us able to get in on this one. @ TOL_wx  I like your thoughts on busting high! 

[jaster220]

 Wasn't really expecting one of these

 

 

 

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2020

Areas affected...Northern Indiana into southern Michigan and far
northwest Ohio

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 052307Z - 060130Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow is expected through
the evening.

DISCUSSION...Isentropic ascent has led to a broad area of light to
moderate snow across much of the southern Great Lakes. While
snowfall rates should remain in the half inch per hour range across
most of the region, deep frontogenesis in the 850 to 500 mb layer
will lead to some banding and localized heavier snowfall rates
approaching 1 inch per hour. Composite reflectivity indicates the
heaviest band may be starting to develop from Rensselaer, IN
northeastward through Goshen and toward Jackson, Michigan. The
heavier snow rates will be limited due to the short duration of
snow, but these rates could persist for 1 to 2 hours across the
aforementioned region.

[mgeha]

Anyone in NW Ohio and Southern MI concerned about the lack of returns of returns in Indiana??  Seems like something is missing here.  

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

I see you've joined the headline party bud! 'grats  

Thanks bud....in the 3-6 inch range as this thing might be looking stronger now.

[Niko]

 Wasn't really expecting one of these

 

20200205 SPC MCD #0082.jpg

Its getting better and better.

[Niko]

@ The Mitt peeps...

 

By all accounts this initial wave is faster than forecast. Any thoughts on what if any effect this would have on the secondary wave's impacts here? A lot of moving pieces...I have no idea if faster is good or bad.

That is a good question.......

[Clinton]

Still have a little bit of light snow falling.  Going to finish up with around 3 inches.  Brutal northern edge in my area, 25 miles to my west and no accumulation, 30 miles to my east and 6 inches plus.

[jaster220]

Measured 0.9" here about 10 mins ago. Getting donut holed attm tho. As posted above, radar is anything but solid. Hopefully it fills-in enough to at least make forecast totals. Updated pm maps had me in the 3" range. 

[mgeha]

According to the 18Z GFS, this thing is just getting started with more coming later tomorrow??  Some of the local offices hinting at this actually happening, but has the GFS now confirmed it??

[Clinton]

Its getting better and better.

Good luck to you and all you guys up north!  

[Mi_Matthew]

Measured 0.9" here about 10 mins ago. Getting donut holed attm tho. As posted above, radar is anything but solid. Hopefully it fills-in enough to at least make forecast totals. Updated pm maps had me in the 3" range.

Reflectivities north of I-94 have tanked big time over here. Not good.

[Minny_Weather]

Lake enhancement is coming in CLUTCH right now before a dry slot comes in. Largest flakes I have ever seen and it's not even close. 26.2*F. 2.5" in grass, 2" on concrete where it didn't accumulate at the start. Keep in mind it first started snowing appreciably at around 6:30. That's 2.5" in under 2 hours.

[Minny_Weather]

According to the 18Z GFS, this thing is just getting started with more coming later tomorrow??  Some of the local offices hinting at this actually happening, but has the GFS now confirmed it??

Yes, models have been sniffing out a second wave tomorrow. Nothing appreciable but should be a decently wide swath of 1-2" around the area.

[Mi_Matthew]

Lake enhancement is coming in CLUTCH right now before a dry slot comes in. Largest flakes I have ever seen and it's not even close. 26.2*F. 2.5" in grass, 2" on concrete where it didn't accumulate at the start. Keep in mind it first started snowing appreciably at around 6:30. That's 2.5" in under 2 hours.

Wow. A very light dusting here. Nice score so far!

[FV-Mike]

Tom Skilling still optimistic for those close to the lake in the CHI area. 

 

"check out the latest HRRR model snowfall forecast from now through mid-morning Thursday. It's a single model but it and several other models have been putting down as much as 4" of snow in Chicago and suggests this could happen between now and mid-morning. Equally ambitious in generating snow is our 4km RPM model--which also has distributes snow in such a manner it's clear the model is incorporating some lake moisture."

 

 

 

[Tom]

2020febweath.jpgTom Skilling still optimistic for those close to the lake in the CHI area.

 

"

check out the latest HRRR model snowfall forecast from now through mid-morning Thursday. It's a single model but it and several other models have been putting down as much as 4" of snow in Chicago and suggests this could happen between now and mid-morning. Equally ambitious in generating snow is our 4km RPM model--which also has distributes snow in such a manner it's clear the model is incorporating some lake moisture."

Check out the latest 00z HRRR, it is really showing a solid LES signal into NE IL, esp Cook/DuPage/Will counties.

[Tom]

Officially snowing with mod sized flakes...no pixie dust here...let it Snow!

[Minny_Weather]

3km NAM keeps ptype as snow thru the night. Not much more in terms of additional accumulation but that would be LOVELY as I don't want any freezing rain.

[Niko]

Snowing lightly attm. Temp holding in the mid 20s.

[Mi_Matthew]

I'm expecting DTX to drop the advisory with the evening update. Moderate snow never really got going with the exception of downriver. Rest of the event looks like we grind out maybe 3" over the next 36 hours. Not headline worthy.

[Minny_Weather]

Sleet/snow cocktail now as the back edge of this wave moves thru. 3" from this first wave, and expecting more of some form of precip tomorrow. Pretty safe to say this was the sweet spot, just hope the Detroiters can get something tomorrow along with me. 25.9*F.