2/4 - 2/7 Multi-Wave Storm System

[uticasnow]

Detroit looking for 2-4"

 

The dry weather will be short lived as a stronger system is set to lift through the Ohio Valley late Wednesday night into Thursday. The trough currently observed digging through the Great Basin will swing through the southern Plains and lift up the Mississippi Valley, leading to an open wave low forming along the nearly stationary frontal zone still draped just to our south and extending westward. Latest guidance indicates a coupled jet structure moving overhead, providing synoptic forcing for the low to develop. Models have been fairly consistent on the surface low tracking just to our southeast, placing SE Michigan within a favorable position for extra forcing via deformation. Accumulating snow is likely to start overnight Wednesday and continue into Thursday morning or possibly early afternoon. QPF has trended slightly upward with the 12z suite and the NAM has abandoned its previous dry solution. Current forecast is for a solid 2 to 4 inch accumulation. Depending on the track of the low, namely if a more northerly track is realized, there will be a chance for a wintry mix across the southern counties that may eat into snow accumulations.

[jaster220]

12z Euro Control...

 

Wow. Haven't seen a classic pan-handle look like this since perhaps GHD-1 

 

Nice swath from Toledo to Traverse. Would be nice if this holds and doesn't shift much more, eh?

[Niko]

Moving forward briefly from this storm.............Next week looking stormy as well.

 

NOAA:

Temperatures will remain near normal values
for early February. Large scale flow then becomes more zonal for
early next week with some moderation in temperatures likely. Another
chance for accumulating snow exists in the late Sunday to early
Tuesday time frame, but significant system timing discrepancies
exist and will bear monitoring in future forecast updates.

[OKwx2k4]

I’m an optimist. But this year just doesn’t have it. We will get some snow again. No doubt. But for here, this is not winter. Even those that don’t follow winter are like this is not a winter. It’s a long cold autumn. Wishing winter doesn’t make it happen. Being mad at people pointing out the obvious doesn’t make winter appear.

You're not wrong. Down here at my latitude, I've said that it feels like that. Even the rain, smells, green patches of grass and then the intermittent, quick disappearing frosts, I want to build a bonfire and still smell leaves when its humid and damp out....

That's autumn to me. Not winter.

Where's a gulf hurricane when you need one.

 

Here's to hope this storm hits me, but I just thought it unique the choice of words you used.

[Hawkeye]

18z GFS even more nw as it closes off the energy over Iowa.

 

[bud2380]

GFS teasing me down here with 4" this run.

 

 

[Hawkeye]

Here is the GFS trying to correct over the last day of runs.

 

[FV-Mike]

GFS teasing me down here with 4" this run.

 

 

 

GFS teasing me down here with 4" this run.

 

 

 

its been awhile since w have seen some of the pink numbers

[Clinton]

WWA being issued in my area

[jaster220]

18z GFS even more nw as it closes off the energy over Iowa.

 

 

It also develops that 3rd wave quite far west with snow breaking out in Ohio. Wonder if there's still a chance that could get drawn back into the Trough NW enough to hit the Mitt? 

[jaster220]

At Tom

 

I noticed you modified the thread title which is great, but what's going on for this event beyond the 6th? Just curious. 

[jaster220]

18z GFS with a signal for some lingering backside lake enhancement even into Thur overnight. 

 

[Clinton]

18z Euro Red River smasher.

[jaster220]

18z Euro Red River smasher.

 

DANG! What's that bullseye? Like 18+ or so??

[jaster220]

Some Bliz Warnings in WY. Energetic system 

[Hawkeye]

The 18z Euro is a bit drier again for Iowa and Wisconsin.  I was hoping to see it even a bit farther nw like the 18z GFS.

[jaster220]

Is this typical down there due to a lack of equipment to handle winter wx?

 

Road conditions may be impacted for several days across northeast Oklahoma.

[Mi_Matthew]

It also develops that 3rd wave quite far west with snow breaking out in Ohio. Wonder if there's still a chance that could get drawn back into the Trough NW enough to hit the Mitt?

Maybe. Wave 2 would likely be a rainer for me if it did though.

[Niko]

WWA being issued in my area

Congrats on your headline bud!!!

[Niko]

DANG! What's that bullseye? Like 18+ or so??

That is one wicked snow accumulation for central TX. WOW!  Pretty awesome to see this far S.

[Clinton]

21z SREF giving me a nice bump in snowfall.

[Hawkeye]

00z NAM is a continuation of its favorable trend, but it's still not to the point where snow is pulled back into eastern Iowa.  While the 18z GFS has a 500 mb low going negative and closing off over Iowa, the NAM is still a positively-tilted open wave.

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS..... not much change.  I'm thinking this is as far nw as the system will be able to track.

 

[Grizzcoat]

that's a big shift N in only 6-12 hours in S. IA.-- a full degree latitude.  May cash in on this afterall.

[Hawkeye]

00z Canadian is about the same from Texas to central Illinois, but a tick southeast and weaker on the nw/n edge from Iowa to Michigan.

[Mi_Matthew]

NAM is suggesting a long duration event for MBY. It is snowing nearly continuously for the last 27 hours of the run. It is showing what Jaster hinted at earlier with some influence of the 3rd wave.

[Hawkeye]

00z UK

 

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro.... definitely southeast for northern areas, similar to a few other models tonight.

 

[Tom]

00z Euro/Control did come a bit SE with the Wed/Thu wave but as the third wave gets its act together Friday morning, while the ULL trough tracks over head, moisture gets wrapped back into the system and keeps it snowing over IL/IN/MI a little longer than previous runs.  Something to keep an eye on.  Not to mention, but the LES signal on the backside is looking much better per the Euro/GGEM/GFS.

 

 

[Tom]

06z NAM....

 

 

[Tom]

03z SREF's really looking solid for parts of KC into MO...

 

 

[Tom]

00z EPS came in a little juicer for those of us around the GL's and in N MO (aka Clinton's area)...it's also really starting to come in nicely with a strong Lehs/LES signature for NE IL/NW IN.

 

On a side note, there is a rotating piece of energy that pivots across the GL's region into the OHV that could lay down an additional 1-2" on Sat/Sun but where exactly that tracks is up in the air.  I consider this a "bonus" opportunity.

 

 

 

[Tom]

00z GEFS...

 

 

 

 

 

06z GFS coming in hot for N IL/SE WI...Bigly Lehs/LES signal showing up this run...I panned through all 51 EPS ensembles members and many of them show a N/NNE flow persisting through Friday am rush hour.  As I mentioned before, this is prob one of the better set ups I've seen in quite some time.  Not only do we have the Arctic HP to our north seeding the cold air, but the lake is running AN and its wide open for business.  I'm actually getting pretty excited about this situation.  Could be one hellova lake plume on this side of the lake.  Reminds me of a LES set up a few years back around Christmas. Can't remember the year but we had a similar set up where that lake plume oscillated back and forth into SE WI/NE IL for 6-12 hours and dumped snow into Lake/Cook/DuPage/Will county.  Hopefully the trends continue.

 

[Tom]

Just saw the RPM model and it looks great for N IL/NW IN/SW MI...looks very similar to the GFS and a bit farther NW...doesn't look to bad for those in E IA as well.  By Thu am, the LES begins to develop across E/SE WI & NE IL and continues throughout the entire day Thursday into Friday am.  More often than not, the RPM model is a great tool to use as guidance inside 48 hours and esp when its "seeing" the Lehs/LES signal.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS actually gives DSM airport 3.0"!!! -- if this trend continues (big if) but it would make this actually an event after 48-60 hours of thinking nothing would fall. And the 6" line is only a county away. GDR may score a coup!!! 

[Clinton]

6z RGEM really getting wound up through hr 54 for folks north of I-44.

[Clinton]

6z Euro a little weaker

[Grizzcoat]

Congrats to those getting snows!! No one cares- but I will have 3-4' snowbanks with 3-4" snowcover (with bare spots)-  enjoy it. Big cutter's coming

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS is saying that dry air is squashing any snow from reaching the ground.  I can attest.  Radar looked good about 5 AM but it was just cloudy.  NWS North Platte NE even cancelled WWA's as little or no snow fell, as the lower levels were just too dry according to their reports.  Don't know if that will affect anyone else today, but something to always consider.

[Stacsh]

Looks like a long light snow here Thursday. 2-4"  sharp cutoff.  Jaster might be in the sweet spot.