2/4 - 2/7 Multi-Wave Storm System

[Mi_Matthew]

Sleet/snow cocktail now as the back edge of this wave moves thru. 3" from this first wave, and expecting more of some form of precip tomorrow. Pretty safe to say this was the sweet spot, just hope the Detroiters can get something tomorrow along with me. 25.9*F.

Agreed on the sweet spot. Only report DTX put out is 1" in Ann Arbor. Gotta imagine someone in Monroe County has gotten 2". Not even 0.5" in MBY. Hope the rest goes better. You should do well if you can dodge any more mixing.

[jaster220]

Lake enhancement is coming in CLUTCH right now before a dry slot comes in. Largest flakes I have ever seen and it's not even close. 26.2*F. 2.5" in grass, 2" on concrete where it didn't accumulate at the start. Keep in mind it first started snowing appreciably at around 6:30. That's 2.5" in under 2 hours.

 

Confirms my hunch that you were finally going to get some lake enhancement. Nice score! Eye balling 1.2" and just light snow continuing currently. 

[Minny_Weather]

Confirms my hunch that you were finally going to get some lake enhancement. Nice score! Eye balling 1.2" and just light snow continuing currently. 

It was so cool to see returns blowing up as they got closer to me.

[Mi_Matthew]

Well I stand corrected. No headline changes... I hope they're right.

[mgeha]

I'm expecting DTX to drop the advisory with the evening update. Moderate snow never really got going with the exception of downriver. Rest of the event looks like we grind out maybe 3" over the next 36 hours. Not headline worthy.

Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI948 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020.UPDATE...The strong surge of leading isentropic ascent moved east of theregion entering late evening after producing snow accumulationgenerally around 1 inch south of the M-59 corridor. The next phase ofthe event brings a round of similarly stronger forcing associatedwith a small but intense mid level wave within the deep SW flow thatmaintains a background of weak isentropic lift. The associated liftis enhanced within a deep layer of low static stability above 850 mbthat has pockets of instability centered around 600 mb and is beingfed by specific humidity around 4 g/kg. Coverage may not be as solidas the early evening surge but areas of snow showers increasing againfrom the SW are expected to be equally productive. An additional 1to 2 inches of accumulation is likely in this phase of the eventbetween about 10 PM and 4 AM. The Winter Weather Advisory remains ineffect with the update including some timing detail going through thelate night.

[Mi_Matthew]

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
948 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

.UPDATE...

The strong surge of leading isentropic ascent moved east of the
region entering late evening after producing snow accumulation
generally around 1 inch south of the M-59 corridor. The next phase of
the event brings a round of similarly stronger forcing associated
with a small but intense mid level wave within the deep SW flow that
maintains a background of weak isentropic lift. The associated lift
is enhanced within a deep layer of low static stability above 850 mb
that has pockets of instability centered around 600 mb and is being
fed by specific humidity around 4 g/kg. Coverage may not be as solid
as the early evening surge but areas of snow showers increasing again
from the SW are expected to be equally productive. An additional 1
to 2 inches of accumulation is likely in this phase of the event
between about 10 PM and 4 AM. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect with the update including some timing detail going through the
late night.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
948 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

.UPDATE...

The strong surge of leading isentropic ascent moved east of the
region entering late evening after producing snow accumulation
generally around 1 inch south of the M-59 corridor. The next phase of
the event brings a round of similarly stronger forcing associated
with a small but intense mid level wave within the deep SW flow that
maintains a background of weak isentropic lift. The associated lift
is enhanced within a deep layer of low static stability above 850 mb
that has pockets of instability centered around 600 mb and is being
fed by specific humidity around 4 g/kg. Coverage may not be as solid
as the early evening surge but areas of snow showers increasing again
from the SW are expected to be equally productive. An additional 1
to 2 inches of accumulation is likely in this phase of the event
between about 10 PM and 4 AM. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect with the update including some timing detail going through the
late night.

Yep. Funny that my county is the same color on the map as on November 11th! I will be shocked (pleasantly, of course) if there's more than 2" on the ground by 4AM.

[Plowguy-dupage county]

Got to love Chicago area forecasts. Accuweather 3-6. Weatherbug 2-3. Noaa 2-4. Special weather statement doesn't even mention a total.

[Tom]

Just measured 0.3” on my deck...snowing pretty good with nice sized dendrites. Temps in the upper 20’s is really helping with the fluff factor. Radar trends look pretty good with the wave tracking over NE IL. Looking forward to seeing what the lake can add tomorrow.

[Mi_Matthew]

Just measured 0.3” on my deck...snowing pretty good with nice sized dendrites. Temps in the upper 20’s is really helping with the fluff factor. Radar trends look pretty good with the wave tracking over NE IL. Looking forward to seeing what the lake can add tomorrow.

Good luck over there, Tom! RGEM sends a lot of love your way too!

[Niko]

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

1017 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020
 

MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-060900-

/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-200206T0900Z/

Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor,

Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe

1017 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020
 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST

THURSDAY...
 

* WHAT...Snow expected. Additional accumulation of 1 to 2 inches

  for totals of 2 to 4 inches. A burst of heavier snow redevelops

  mainly from Midnight to 3 AM.
 

* WHERE...Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee

  and Monroe Counties.
 

* WHEN...From now until 4 AM Thursday.
 

* IMPACTS...Untreated roads remain hazardous through the late

  night.

 

[Tom]

Good luck over there, Tom! RGEM sends a lot of love your way too!

Thanks bud! Ya, this LES set up is trending more interesting. Last minute surprises are always fun. Some of the CAM’s paint .40-.50” qpf suggesting intense bursts of snow. I’m wondering if LOT issues some sort of Lake Effect advisory overnight.

[Mi_Matthew]

Niko, you take a peek at the RGEM yet? Furthest west with the final wave so far! Maybe it'll make up for the lackluster first batch of precip.

 

Edit: GFS coming in with beefier totals too.

[Tom]

Took a peak outside and it’s coming down nicely! Picked up a quick 0.5” since I measured last time. The dendrites are nice and fluffy. Stacking up pretty good. Hopefully this can go all night. It looks beautiful out there this evening. Temp is 28F with a slight wind out of the East.

[Niko]

Niko, you take a peek at the RGEM yet? Furthest west with the final wave so far! Maybe it'll make up for the lackluster first batch of precip.

 

Edit: GFS coming in with beefier totals too.

Also....radar is exploding. After midnight it will snow moderate to hvy at times.

[Mi_Matthew]

Five hours into the WWA with three to go and still not even half an inch has accumulated. This is a bust.

 

However, tonight's loss looks like tomorrow/tomorrow night's gain as the final wave keeps inching back west with each run.

[Mi_Matthew]

Meanwhile, radar is re-igniting over Chicago. A lot of people are going to wake up surprised.

[Stacsh]

Literally a joke on radar over my area all night. Missing heavy band by 10 miles.

[Tom]

I just woke up not long ago and measured 2.1" on my deck of real fluffy, powdery white gold!  To my surprise, the defo band is tracking in a perfect spot and it has been snowing non stop since it started.  Looks like we have several more hours to go before it exits and then the bonus LES kicks in later today.  Awesome!

 

After last nights model runs, it wasn't looking like this defo band would set up this far north.  You win some, you lose some...today, Chicago and crew have won a nice surprise.  As crazy as this sounds, but this might end up being the biggest snowstorm of the season (3.4" back on Oct 31st and Nov 11th) from just synoptic snows.  If the LES kicks in as advertised around Noon today, then it can potentially snow off & on throughout the remainder of the day into Friday morning's rush hour for counties adjacent to the lake.

 

The latest long range 06z HRRR shows waves of LES starting up around Noon today and continuing till 7:00am Friday morning when what looks like a potential Lake Plume may develop!

 

  

[Tom]

Looking at the higher rez radar, you can already see little pockets of heavier snow embedded within the SW flow coming in off the lake into Lake/Cook county in NE IL.  The Lehs is already starting to pick up and winds have increased out of the N @ ORD while coming in out of the NE along the lake aiding a growing convergence.  This should grow as the day progresses and increase in intensity.  I think the set up is looking rather interesting for NE IL as we progress throughout the day and into the evening.

 

At this time, light to mod SN is falling with winds out of the N @ 14...getting a bit breezy out there...looks like #realwinter has arrived...

[jaster220]

Best of luck with the lake today Tom. Finally, its your friend again!

[Minny_Weather]

An additional half inch of ice-topped snow fell overnight. Second wave this afternoon looks pretty potent, hoping I can get an additional inch or two from that along with the SE MI people who missed out yesterday. I-69 may even see 3". 25.2*F.

 

Toledo Express recorded 2.9" yesterday which sounds about right. Don't know when the additional half inch fell but that may need to be added to that total.

[Niko]

Jaster....how did ya do so far w snow totals

 

Clinton---i think you said you received around couple of inches right

[Clinton]

Jaster....how did ya do so far w snow totals

 

Clinton---i think you said you received around couple of inches righ

A little over 3

[Niko]

A little over 3

Congrats bud! Keep adding in that snow dept. 

[FV-Mike]

Had 2.5. Some nice bands over night. Everything is covered looks nice out there

[Plowguy-dupage county]

Ended up with just over an inch in the Naperville are. Lol

[Tom]

I've added 0.7" since measuring around 2:30am and its snowing nicely right now as the lake machine kicks in.  I love these type of snows that have big fluffy dendrites and esp seeing it snow like this during the day.  This has to be the best winter morning of the season!  

[Tony]

I've added 0.7" since measuring around 2:30am and its snowing nicely right now as the lake machine kicks in.  I love these type of snows that have big fluffy dendrites and esp seeing it snow like this during the day.  This has to be the best winter morning of the season!  

Maybe the Lake will be our friend today and be able to add on several inches.

[brianc400]

I've added 0.7" since measuring around 2:30am and its snowing nicely right now as the lake machine kicks in.

0.7” is my total in my area. But it looks like the machine is turning in just north of me. Let’s see!

[Tom]

0.7” is my total in my area. But it looks like the machine is turning in just north of me. Let’s see!

I think we'll do alright in that dept later this afternoon/evening and add on some additional snow.  I'm hoping for a couple inches, maybe more if things work out just right.

[Stacsh]

ofc the heavier band now sets up north of my area right now.  South last night, North today.  dusting of snow.  

[Mi_Matthew]

Biggest question for my area is when/if this elongated dry slot fills back in. All the hi-res models say it should. This FZDZ- can go away anytime now.

[Tony]

Looks like the LES is starting to take shape in Cook/Dupage/Lake Counties

[FV-Mike]

Looks like the LES is starting to take shape in Cook/Dupage/Lake Counties

Yep, I am right on the boarder of Kane/DuPage and getting nice flakes

[jaster220]

Jaster....how did ya do so far w snow totals

 

Clinton---i think you said you received around couple of inches right

 

Only had 2" total when I measured this morning. A little bit lower than I'd hoped with my office saying 94 region would be the jack-zone. Taller grass was not covered in fact. Still, I'm fine for my amount considering others getting whiffed and such. I see also, Marshall is getting a decent band so there should be some new to measure later when I get home. Good luck over your way bud! 

 

A little over 3

 

Nice Clinton. About what you thought, right? 

[Clinton]

Only had 2" total when I measured this morning. A little bit lower than I'd hoped with my office saying 94 region would be the jack-zone. Taller grass was not covered in fact. Still, I'm fine for my amount considering others getting whiffed and such. I see also, Marshall is getting a decent band so there should be some new to measure later when I get home. Good luck over your way bud! 

 

 

Nice Clinton. About what you thought, right? 

Yes it is, it did take all day to get there lol.

[jaster220]

Looks like the "bonanza band" I was hoping to score set-up about 1.5 counties to my west. That region is a snow magnet whether LES or synoptic. I swear, they rarely "lose" over there!

 

[Niko]

Only had 2" total when I measured this morning. A little bit lower than I'd hoped with my office saying 94 region would be the jack-zone. Taller grass was not covered in fact. Still, I'm fine for my amount considering others getting whiffed and such. I see also, Marshall is getting a decent band so there should be some new to measure later when I get home. Good luck over your way bud! 

 

 

Nice Clinton. About what you thought, right? 

Thanks amigo. Didn't get much outta this, but at least it looks and feels like Winter outside w snow otg.

[Niko]

Yes it is, it did take all day to get there lol.

Story of this Winter......

[Niko]

Looks like stacsh and jaster are getting some good snowfall now by looking at the radar......

 

Eventually, that looks to shift eastward towards mby.