GHweatherChris Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 I think you once said you've seen 15ºF rain. That's just awful. Skiing in 33-35ºF rain is the worst. I've done it before. It soaks into your clothes, especially your gloves and it does not come out.There is now way anyone has experienced 15° rain, anyone that says so is full of shittt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 There is now way anyone has experienced 15° rain, anyone that says so is full of shittt. In retrospect 93-94 was probably better than this winter for PDX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 There is now way anyone has experienced 15° rain, anyone that says so is full of shittt. We had 18-degree drizzle here at the start of the 2012 ice storm. I knew it was going to be bad when it turned to liquid precip when it was still under 20 degrees. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 I’m not seeing anything in the models that would be nearly as cold as March 2002 here. But maybe that didn’t penetrate very far south. 2002 never really got impressive with the low temps. Down here the whole thing was fairly cold, but it never delivered the cold temps this situation might. Looking at past cold snaps after March 10 it's remarkable how rare it is to get cold / clear with a legit cold continental air mass. In 1906 Clearbrook dropped to 10 on March 15 so it can certainly happen. At this point I think the blocking being shown on the recent model runs is pretty extraordinary. Certainly a chance to see some impressive cold before this is over. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Down to 34 degrees. Up to .25” on the day. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 There is now way anyone has experienced 15° rain, anyone that says so is full of shittt.There are verified METAR obs confirming it. That happens here sometimes under CAD situations following very cold Arctic air masses, as low level flow remains N/NE below the high to the NE while isentropic upglide aloft drops precip into the wedge. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Wow! The Arctic surface high shown over BC on the ECMWF at day 6 is insane. This is far from business as usual for March. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Down to 34 degrees. Up to .25” on the day. Are you getting snow? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 We had 18-degree drizzle here at the start of the 2012 ice storm. I knew it was going to be bad when it turned to liquid precip when it was still under 20 degrees.Chris isn’t the brightest bulb in the bunch. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 00Z ECMWF shows some 36-37 degree snow on Friday afternoon... then its in the mid 40s by Saturday morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 I think you once said you've seen 15ºF rain. That's just awful. Skiing in 33-35ºF rain is the worst. I've done it before. It soaks into your clothes, especially your gloves and it does not come out.I think our last nasty ice storm with temps in the teens was in 2014 or 2015. We had two of them one of those winters, one in January, and one during the middle of the day in March with temps in the 20s, which was way outside climo. And yeah, those really cold ones can even turn the beltway into a skating rink. I’ve had a few close calls over the years thinking it wasn’t cold enough to overwhelm the chemical treatment + heavy traffic+insolation. ZR is no joke. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Significant lowland snow being shown on the ECMWF. It shows it being pretty widespread also. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 I still call bullshit without proof. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Significant lowland snow being shown on the ECMWF. It shows it being pretty widespread also.Proof? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Not sure why people aren't more excited about these awesome model runs. To each their own I guess. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Significant lowland snow being shown on the ECMWF. It shows it being pretty widespread also. ECMWF often overstates snow amounts with temps in the mid to upper 30s... but we need to start seeing some kind of run-to-run consistency before that even matters. Long way to go. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Proof? 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Proof? Total snow through day 9... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Chris isn’t the brightest bulb in the bunch.I have never lied. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Not sure why people aren't more excited about these awesome model runs. To each their own I guess.Polar vortex. It’s mid-March. In January the models were showing something rivaling 1950 or 1969 which was murdered by the aforementioned PV. Certainly killed the optimism for many here. After that, an inch or two of wet slop just isn’t that exciting. GFS and ensembles have little to no cold air with the ECMWF very inconsistent. 12z run was not as cold as this run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Cold spring. Polar vortex. Alaska. Low solar. Timnipotence. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 I have never lied.^^ You just did. Right now. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 ECMWF often overstates snow amounts with temps in the mid to upper 30s... but we need to start seeing some kind of run-to-run consistency before that even matters. Long way to go.Meanwhile it’ll be 75*F here Monday. Tim-tastic. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 EPS is all in for continental cold for the 6 to 12 day period. Going to be a cold month. If this is correct it should especially show up on the low temps except early on where we might have a snow threat. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 I just want it to warm up now so it feels more like March in Redding. Hmmmm.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Not sure why people aren't more excited about these awesome model runs. To each their own I guess.Not sure why this is so perplexing. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 The EPS forecast for the EPO has changed dramtically since I last checked it a couple of day ago. The 12z showed it dropping to -5 while still showing a PNA of -2. Time to get intrigued in my estimation! It's really a miracle the +AO is forecast to survive in this kind of environment. The 0z EPS control tries to drive the huge PV into the US later in week two so it might be close to the end. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Not sure why this is so perplexing. The models are showing one of the best looking blocks I've seen so late in the season in like forever so my question stands. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 I'm sure glad I didn't take my eye off the ball this season! It should be making people wonder that I haven't just left the forum for the season like I usually do by now. Pretty obvious this isn't business as usual. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 A growing number of EPS members depict a dynamic final warming (in the form of a wave-2 vortex split like the 00z GFS operational). Worth watching. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 A growing number of EPS members depict a dynamic final warming (in the form of a wave-2 vortex split like the 00z GFS operational). Worth watching. I think something epic is brewing. The ECMWF based EPO forecast shows it CRASHING to -7! This could be yuge. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 I'm sorry to be so manic about this tonight, but it's frustrating to have nobody sharing my excitement about this possible great pattern coming up. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 I'm officially paying attention. I've also had 3 outstanding bowel movements the past 3 days. Analog? Think Cold and SNOW???? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 I'm sorry to be so manic about this tonight, but it's frustrating to have nobody sharing my excitement about this possible great pattern coming up.You’re good. The simple fact that you have the humility to apologize or admit to anything is what puts you above some of your biggest detractors here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 I've been in Bozeman since Friday, never experienced a Montana spring before (despite being married to a Montanan for 24 years), but it was in the low 60's and Sunny Friday, upper 50's yesterday with sunny periods, and I woke up this morning to snow. I contemplated taking the snows off before my trip because it looked pretty nice. I'm glad I didn't! It was pretty crazy driving through the temperature changes from staying at my wife's family place (1hr east of Missoula) to Bozeman. It was the lower twenties when I left, but quickly went to near 50 after going over a small ridge. Going over small ridge and I'm in the 60's, then low 30's, then 60's again...huge temperature swings over a 2 hour drive... It's been a lot of fun to experience.... Back to the snow this morning, I think it is supposed to clear off and warm up for next weekend. 2 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 I've been in Bozeman since Friday, never experienced a Montana spring before (despite being married to a Montanan for 24 years), but it was in the low 60's and Sunny Friday, upper 50's yesterday with sunny periods, and I woke up this morning to snow. I contemplated taking the snows off before my trip because it looked pretty nice. I'm glad I didn't! It was pretty crazy driving through the temperature changes from staying at my wife's family place (1hr east of Missoula) to Bozeman. It was the lower twenties when I left, but quickly went to near 50 after going over a small ridge. Going over small ridge and I'm in the 60's, then low 30's, then 60's again...huge temperature swings over a 2 hour drive... It's been a lot of fun to experience.... Back to the snow this morning, I think it is supposed to clear off and warm up for next weekend. Looks like about 6" here south of town already...and still dumping. The melt was seriously on before this one hit. Looks like things stay cool'ish through Tuesday with another couple of inches of snowfall Monday night. Brief warmup later this week but next weekend is looking pretty cold/snowy as of right now. How long are you in town? 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Screen Shot 2020-03-07 at 10.07.00 PM.png In retrospect 93-94 was probably better than this winter for PDX. That winter was easily better. It had a reasonable arctic airmass in November and a wet snowstorm in February. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Looks like about 6" here south of town already...and still dumping. The melt was seriously on before this one hit. Looks like things stay cool'ish through Tuesday with another couple of inches of snowfall Monday night. Brief warmup later this week but next weekend is looking pretty cold/snowy as of right now. How long are you in town?Headed back out around lunch time. My son bought 1998 Subaru for getting around town, but it needed some work. I loaded up the car with tools and came out to see him and go over the car. Luckily we had better weather than today to do the work in. 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Low clouds with a low of 28F this morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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