March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

January is going to be the warmest month this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

January is going to be the warmest month this year.

 

We couldn't have it any other way. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just told my wife we could have our snowiest April since 2008. She was not pleased. 

[Omegaraptor]

I just told my wife we could have our snowiest April since 2008. She was not pleased.

 

On a serious note, anything past 72 hours is still a complete crapshoot.

[ShawniganLake]

Gfs ensembles drop to -9C for Vancouver

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  Fantastic GFS run.  A lot more long fetch northerly flow in the believable range.  We could easily see record cold with this.  The GFS ensemble mean and operational both drop below -7 in a few days.  Really nippy for this time of year.  Phil and I had speculated this could happen when the PV finally gave out, but seeing it so close is really something.

[Jesse]

On a serious note, anything past 72 hours is still a complete crapshoot.

The models have gotten more consistent now that they’ve resolved how that ULL south of the Aleutians will behave the next few days.

[snow_wizard]

This run seems to indicate a lot more potential for nighttime clearing than previous runs.

[snow_wizard]

The models have gotten more consistent now that they’ve resolved how that ULL south of the Aleutians will behave the next few days.

 

And the setup is already in place at 72 hours.

[Jesse]

And the setup is already in place at 72 hours.

Think he’s just getting a little spooked.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at this run again the word historic seems to be a reasonable.  We'll see if the ECMWF looks anything like it.

[snow_wizard]

Think he’s just getting a little spooked.

 

This has to be the solar aspect coming into play.  It's just too different.

[Gradient Keeper]

When was the last time we saw models look this chilly/good for early April? Pretty nifty stuff.

 

00z WRF shows gradients increasing sharply after midnight and a windy night on tap peaking 1-4 AM. Gusts 30-35mph perhaps some locally to 40mph around Salem. Neat.

 

 

 

[Jesse]

January is going to be the warmest month this year.

 

In terms of departure from average, that actually wouldn't be hard to do. Especially since cold season months generally have greater variability about their mean than warm season months.

 

Now watch PDX pull of a 75 degree average in August...

[Omegaraptor]

In terms of departure from average, that actually wouldn't be hard to do. Especially since cold season months generally have greater variability about their mean than warm season months.

 

Now watch PDX pull of a 75 degree average in August...

January was 4.4°F above average. August 2017, in comparison, was 4.1°F above average. January being the warmest month this year by departure from average is more likely than not. Blowtorch of a month it was - average temp was similar to an average Sacramento January.

[Jesse]

January was 4.4°F above average. August 2017, in comparison, was 4.1°F above average. January being the warmest month this year by departure from average is more likely than not.

January 1953 was about 6 degrees above average. And an even bigger departure compared to the baseline back then.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Gfs ensembles drop to -9C for Vancouver

 

Would be happy to see that bust, it will feel like a typical February day at the surface. It's been a dry month.

[Requiem]

When was the last time we saw models look this chilly/good for early April? Pretty nifty stuff.

 

00z WRF shows gradients increasing sharply after midnight and a windy night on tap peaking 1-4 AM. Gusts 30-35mph perhaps some locally to 40mph around Salem. Neat.

 

 

 

 

I know NAM and GFS are saying 40-45, interestingly (HRRR much higher but it's the HRRR).

[El_Nina]

January 1953 was about 6 degrees above average. And an even bigger departure compared to the baseline back then.

Weed.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like NWS Portland has updated their historical climate data with weather through January 2020 and they’ve added a couple new features as well.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/index.php

[Phil]

January is going to be the warmest month this year.

Poor Tim.

[Jesse]

Weed.

Again??

[El_Nina]

Again??

ZING

[Gradient Keeper]

I know NAM and GFS are saying 40-45, interestingly (HRRR much higher but it's the HRRR).

Intriguing. What is the HRRR showing 50-55mph?

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 50 minutes

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF isn't quite as spectacular as the GFS, but still cold.  It shows a couple of days with northerly or easterly surface pressure gradients with cold 850s.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EURO 10 Day Snowfall Totals. Wow.

 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF meteograms show a low of 31 for SEA on Thursday.  That is bloody impressive.

 

All of the record low temps for SEA for April 1 - 10 are in the 29 to 33 range.

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  The GFS meteograms show SEA with a 42 - 29 spread on Thursday.  This is not business as usual.

[Requiem]

Winds are starting to roar here...

[TacomaWaWx]

Radar is lit up pretty well.

[snow_wizard]

Radar is lit up pretty well.

 

There could be some squalls later tonight, but the best dynamics may be down south.  Certainly potential for thundershowers and hail in the coming days.  The best shot for snow may be Wednesday night.

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS...

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Lord is telling us to stay inside.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temp starting to drop now. Moderate rain and 38. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty heavy rain moved through with that front this morning...up to 0.58” today already most of which fell between 4 and 5am.

[TacomaWaWx]

Could be fairly interesting weather wise this afternoon. Looks like I’m in a good spot to see some thunderstorms today.

[El_Nina]

0.42" with the front down here this morning.

[Blizzard777]

43*

.33 overnight in the bucket

3.08 mtd 

 

[MossMan]

.86” so far on the day, 5.25” for the month, and 23.45” YTD.

Currently cloudy and 40 degrees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wednesday morning looking good for 1-3" of snow up here.