March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z NAM has the Monday system as a very clear squall line.

 

Nice!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tomorrow morning looks pretty wet here on the 00z NAM. Pretty chilly post frontal airmass Monday night too. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS decides to park the ULL over the West permanently.

 

At least that would be drier and a little sunnier for WA.

[Phil]

00Z GFS decides to park the ULL over the West permanently.

 

At least that would be drier and a little sunnier for WA.

Better that than a heat ridge. Count your blessings!

[Omegaraptor]

GFS ensembles have completely caved.

 

Looks like we could be waiting quite a while for our first 70 this year.

[snow_wizard]

If the models continue to trend colder we will be getting into snow territory.  No matter how you slice it the 0z GFS was about as cold of a model run as you will ever see this time of year.  The details are really abnormal as well.  Nothing like a typical cool / cold pattern in April.

[ShawniganLake]

[Omegaraptor]

If the models continue to trend colder we will be getting into snow territory.  No matter how you slice it the 0z GFS was about as cold of a model run as you will ever see this time of year.  The details are really abnormal as well.  Nothing like a typical cool / cold pattern in April.

So I’ve been thinking after looking at this run. Extreme blockiness was the theme for late September/October last year and it’s been the theme since February and now the models are trending towards it again. Probably would have been the theme in January as well if not for the record strong PV. Wonder if with the deep solar minimum this might be the regime for the next couple years. If so, this could finally be the regime that gives us another 36-37, 48-49, 49-50, or 68-69.

 

Just a thought I had. Doesn’t mean I’m right.

[Cloud]

Just for the record... the worst situation in Italy was in the northern part of the country and New Orleans and Florida experienced a massive surge of people from elsewhere in the country recently.      This will likely wane as it gets warmer and start up more in the southern hemisphere as they move into winter.     And either way... we know that viruses like the flu are seasonal and disappear when it turns warmer so that would be good.    Continuing winter-like weather through spring is not ideal right now... but what people want is irrelevant anyways.

 

I don't want to get into the warm weather debate and how this virus is/will behave because I rather listen to health professionals than anyone else. Simply put, we don't even know how covid-19 is behaving so I'm not going to label it a "flu." The only thing that matter to me is finding treatment and cure for this thing before summer, even if warmer weather slows the spread of the virus and WHO/CDC still can't find the cure for this thing, it will make its appearance again in the fall/winter as there may be asymptomatic carriers throughout the year. 

[snow_wizard]

So I’ve been thinking after looking at this run. Extreme blockiness was the theme for late September/October last year and it’s been the theme since February and now the models are trending towards it again. Probably would have been the theme in January as well if not for the record strong PV. Wonder if with the deep solar minimum this might be the regime for the next couple years. If so, this could finally be the regime that gives us another 36-37, 48-49, 49-50, or 68-69.

 

Just a thought I had. Doesn’t mean I’m right.

 

You could be onto something.  Should be some huge potential over the next couple of winters.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS would be some light snow showers Monday and Tuesday night and then a nice slug of snow Wednesday morning. 

[snow_wizard]

The WRF does show lowland snow in some places Wednesday morning.  Certainly possible the way things are looking.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That would be a chilly first week of April!

[Omegaraptor]

You could be onto something.  Should be some huge potential over the next couple of winters.

Yeah I’m thinking something real big could be coming in the next couple winters. As much as I don’t like using this word the PNW is very due for a regional blast.

 

Also, one thing you said in your first post that I didn’t put emphasis on is that this isn’t like a typical April cold pattern. I was also thinking about exactly that. When you think of recent cold springs you think 2008 or 2011, but this upcoming pattern isn’t like those years at all. It’s more like the early 1950s or mid 1930s.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is indicating 2pm temps in the upper 30s to mid 40s for all of Western WA on Thursday.  Looks like a really cold week coming up.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah I’m thinking something real big could be coming in the next couple winters. As much as I don’t like using this word the PNW is very due for a regional blast.

 

Also, one thing you said in your first post that I didn’t put emphasis on is that this isn’t like a typical April cold pattern. I was also thinking about exactly that. When you think of recent cold springs you think 2008 or 2011, but this upcoming pattern isn’t like those years at all. It’s more like the early 1950s or mid 1930s.

 

Yup.  The atmosphere is taking on a way different look than recent years.  This solar min has gotten quite remarkable and we might be seeing some effects from that.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Yup.  The atmosphere is taking on a way different look than recent years.  This solar min has gotten quite remarkable and we might be seeing some effects from that.

 

Considerable less in the way of greenhouse emissions entering the atmosphere recently.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z Euro 10 Day Snowfall Totals

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Dumping heavy rain here currently. Heavy rain moving through Puget sound.

[Gradient Keeper]

2:35 AM Radar Update

Incoming! It is absolutely pouring over the Coast Range. It is going to be a WET morning!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

2:45 AM Radar Update

Puget Sound

Northwest Oregon

 

Pouring rain up north too, but not looking as heavy further south into Oregon!

 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

2:35 AM Radar Update

Incoming! It is absolutely pouring over the Coast Range. It is going to be a WET morning!

 

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massive gullywashing rain underway up here.

[Gradient Keeper]

massive gullywashing rain underway up here.

Yeah this is quite an active, strong little system. The chick on the news last night (Fox 12?) I think said this was a weak system and never mentioned a word about heavy rain. Whoops!

 

12z EURO in 7 hours 56 minutes

[Requiem]

Yeah this is quite an active, strong little system. The chick on the news last night (Fox 12?) I think said this was a weak system and never mentioned a word about heavy rain. Whoops!

 

12z EURO in 7 hours 56 minutes

Could be a nice windy spring system tomorrow into Monday too. Maybe some gusts 30-40, idk....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That radar is blowing up. Reminds me of a line coming through in Oklahoma. 

[Gradient Keeper]

That radar is blowing up. Reminds me of a line coming through in Oklahoma. 

Just add 1000-3000J/kg CAPEs and 50kts+ shear it would be!

[Timmy]

Did it rain last night ?

[TacomaWaWx]

Picked up 0.61” this morning to go to 2.96” for the month. This is our biggest daily rainfall here since 2/1.

[Jesse]

Looks like some fairly heavy snow over the Cascade passes this morning.

[TacomaWaWx]

Next couple days could be interesting weather wise. Could be a decent front that pushes through Monday and maybe even some thunderstorms Monday afternoon.

[Jesse]

Looking like a pretty chilly week coming up.

[Omegaraptor]

PNA and EPO have both dropped like a rock from yesterday’s forecast.

[Jesse]

PNA and EPO have both dropped like a rock from yesterday’s forecast.

Those index forecasts follow the models so that makes sense.

 

LOVED yours and Jim’s convo last night. This pattern definitely has an old school feel to it for this time of year.

[MossMan]

Currently heavy duty drizzle and 43 degrees.

.16” so far on the day, 3.84” for the month, and 22.04” for the YTD.

[ShawniganLake]

Partly sunny this morning. 0.07” of rain overnight. On top of 0.32” yesterday afternoon and evening

[ShawniganLake]

Quite the winter like pattern in the gfs next week. Probably at least some wet snow at times for some higher elevations

[Christensen87]

That low moving in around Friday looks fun.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fairly moist run. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.52" of rain since midnight. 4.68" on the month. Average for March here is 9". 

[TacomaWaWx]

First week of April not looking so dry and sunny now lol. Should be interesting weather this week.