March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

I've had a lot of sub 50 highs this month.  Certainly well above the normal number of days.

 

49/39 here today with .15" of precip and light to moderate rain since this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

I find the 00Z GFS to be pleasing.    Would like a couple more sunny days now.   

[El_Nina]

I find the 00Z GFS to be pleasing.    Would like a couple more sunny days now.

 

Surprising.

 

 

 

I hope things trend cooler and wetter... would you have guessed? We could probably put that in our signatures and just save the time of typing it all the time.

[Jesse]

What a bummer. I'm guessing the Euro will probably cave tonight.

[Jesse]

Precip and mountain snow potential cut way down on this run. Just when you think things are finally looking a little better on that front.

 

Most places down here are running about 50% of average for precip month to date. And now it appears April will be starting out on a warm and dry note...

[El_Nina]

Precip and mountain snow potential cut way down on this run. Just when you think things are finally looking a little better on that front.

 

Most places down here are running about 50% of average for precip month to date. And now it appears April will be starting out on a warm and dry note...

If it really worked out that way it wouldn't be surprising to me. It would be so easy to root for warm and dry

[Jesse]

If it really worked out that way it wouldn't be surprising to me. It would be so easy to root for warm and dry

 

The wind of a changing climate at your back!

[Jesse]

GEM still on the warm and dry train too. Show's over.

[El_Nina]

GEM still on the warm and dry train too. Show's over.

I already have an August tan.

[snow_wizard]

The sun continues to be incredibly quiet.  Only two days had a small spot out of the last 60, and flux values have once again dropped to the lowest levels in 6 months.  Looking like Dalton minimum levels if you look at the last two cycles combined.

[snow_wizard]

GEM still on the warm and dry train too. Show's over.

 

We'll see.  We still have about 1/3 of the ensemble members in the cold camp.  At any rate all models are showing a cold trough early next week.  Certainly going to see more frost.

[MossMan]

Currently 43 degrees. Up to .12” of dribbles on the day.

[Jesse]

Currently 43 degrees. Up to .12” of dribbles on the day.

Dribbles aren’t so bad. We just got back from an hour+ long walk through our neighborhood and hardly even got very wet, despite the fact that it was raining lightly the whole time.

 

Frogs were sounding nice with earthworms out in full force. 46 currently.

[Jesse]

We'll see. We still have about 1/3 of the ensemble members in the cold camp. At any rate all models are showing a cold trough early next week. Certainly going to see more frost.

True that all the models have now come around to the cold trough on Monday/Tuesday. It’s the stuff afterward they disagree about now, like if it decides to really dig over us or get pushed East by the ridge.

 

I don’t hate the Euro solution at all. It seems there are a few different outcomes are on the table right now, from chilly and wet with low snow levels to cool and dryish with mild days and frosty nights. All models agree we get some more decent rainfall between now and Monday as well.

[MossMan]

Dribbles aren’t so bad. We just got back from an hour+ long walk through our neighborhood and hardly even got very wet, despite the fact that it was raining lightly the whole time.

 

Frogs were sounding nice with earthworms out in full force. 46 currently.

The frogs are amazing right now, a much needed soothing sound.

[El_Nina]

0.08" since midnight makes it 3.02" MTD.

[El_Nina]

Pretty ridiculous that after this little wet period we go back into at least a week of dry.

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS:

 

5-10 day period:

 

 

 

 

10-15 day period:

 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty ridiculous that after this little wet period we go back into at least a week of dry.

 

 

We can't seem to get into a pattern with alternating rainy and sunny days either.  

[TacomaWaWx]

We can't seem to get into a pattern with alternating rainy and sunny days either.

 

Yeah thats true for the most part here. We just went 10 days without rain and now we’ve had 6 in a row. On a bigger scale...after getting 18 inches of rain in 8 weeks...we’ve now gotten 3 inches in the last 7 weeks. Before the long December/January rain period in late October through early December... we also went for 7 weeks with just 2.5 inches of rain.

[Blizzard777]

45* and cloudy 

2.13 mtd precipitation 

Now, on over to the virus thread sadly 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS is on a nice improving trend right now for keeping it chilly longer next week.  The 6z kept it cold longer than the 0z and now the 12z is better yet.  Pretty crazy ensemble spread on the 6z as early as day 5.

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  The 12z resurrects the cold snap.

[The Swamp]

We need some warm temps into the low 70's to kill this corona virus.

 

It has a fatty outside shell of a layer that would melt with some heat therefore killing it on surfaces around town.

 

Fingers crossed for an extended period of warmth.

 

It's also past time to get the people back to work.  If you are old or sick, stay home.  It's time to get back to business in my opinion.

[Jesse]

We need some warm temps into the low 70's to kill this corona virus.

 

It has a fatty outside shell of a layer that would melt with some heat therefore killing it on surfaces around town.

 

Fingers crossed for an extended period of warmth.

 

It's also past time to get the people back to work. If you are old or sick, stay home. It's time to get back to business in my opinion.

You have no idea what you’re talking about. If warm weather really played a meaningful role in stopping the coronavirus, we wouldn’t see it being a huge problem in places like Italy or Spain, or Florida and Louisiana, in our country. Or a really hot, sunny, and dry place like Qatar.

 

It’s ok to say you are just ready for some sunny and warm weather without making a half-assed attempt to virus-shame anyone who isn’t.

[FroYoBro]

We need some warm temps into the low 70's to kill this corona virus.

 

It has a fatty outside shell of a layer that would melt with some heat therefore killing it on surfaces around town.

 

Fingers crossed for an extended period of warmth.

 

It's also past time to get the people back to work.  If you are old or sick, stay home.  It's time to get back to business in my opinion.

 

Congratulations on posting the newest "Most Ignorant Post of 2020!"

[TT-SEA]

You have no idea what you’re talking about. If warm weather really played a role in stopping it, we wouldn’t see it being a huge problem in places like Italy or Spain, or Florida and Louisiana, in our country. Or a really hot, sunny and dry place like Qatar.

 

It’s ok to say you are just ready for some sunny and warm weather without making a half-assed attempt to virus-shame anyone who isn’t.

 

 

Just for the record... the worst situation in Italy was in the northern part of the country and New Orleans and Florida experienced a massive surge of people from elsewhere in the country recently.      This will likely wane as it gets warmer and start up more in the southern hemisphere as they move into winter.     And either way... we know that viruses like the flu are seasonal and disappear when it turns warmer so that would be good.    Continuing winter-like weather through spring is not ideal right now... but what people want is irrelevant anyways.

[Jesse]

Nice to see the 12Z GFS extend the cold snap a bit. Could be a good deal of mountain snow followed by some frosty mornings next week. Hopefully the models can keep up the momentum and converge on a colder and wetter solution today.

[TacomaWaWx]

We need some warm temps into the low 70's to kill this corona virus.

 

It has a fatty outside shell of a layer that would melt with some heat therefore killing it on surfaces around town.

 

Fingers crossed for an extended period of warmth.

 

It's also past time to get the people back to work.  If you are old or sick, stay home.  It's time to get back to business in my opinion.

If this was supposed to be humorous I don’t think it worked well.

[Jesse]

If this was supposed to be humorous I don’t think it worked well.

 

I wish it was.

[ShawniganLake]

Just for the record... the worst situation in Italy was in the northern part of the country and New Orleans and Florida experienced a massive surge of people from elsewhere in the country recently. This will likely wane as it gets warmer and start up more in the southern hemisphere as they move into winter. And either way... we know that viruses like the flu are seasonal and disappear when it turns warmer so that would be good. Continuing winter-like weather through spring is not ideal right now... but what people want is irrelevant anyways.

A study from the university of Edinburgh that I read showed 3/4 of the corona viruses studied had a high degree of seasonality. Hopefully this one is not in the other 25%.

[snow_wizard]

We need some warm temps into the low 70's to kill this corona virus.

 

It has a fatty outside shell of a layer that would melt with some heat therefore killing it on surfaces around town.

 

Fingers crossed for an extended period of warmth.

 

It's also past time to get the people back to work.  If you are old or sick, stay home.  It's time to get back to business in my opinion.

 

I'm thinking that's why warm weather countries aren't seeing it nearly as bad.

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see the 12Z GFS extend the cold snap a bit. Could be a good deal of mountain snow followed by some frosty mornings next week. Hopefully the models can keep up the momentum and converge on a colder and wetter solution today.

 

The change in the GEM is dramatic vs the 0z.  Still room for it trend even colder the way it looks now.  I would love to get a taste of some of the serious cold being shown over SW Canada.  At any rate this looks like old time stuff.

[MossMan]

Currently windy, dribbly, and 46 degrees. About to take a walk since it’s just dribbles.

.08” on the day, 3.67” on the month, and 21.87” on the year.

[Phil]

We need some warm temps into the low 70's to kill this corona virus.

 

It has a fatty outside shell of a layer that would melt with some heat therefore killing it on surfaces around town.

 

Fingers crossed for an extended period of warmth.

 

It's also past time to get the people back to work. If you are old or sick, stay home. It's time to get back to business in my opinion.

This is the dumbest s**t I’ve ever heard.

[Phil]

Just for the record... the worst situation in Italy was in the northern part of the country and New Orleans and Florida experienced a massive surge of people from elsewhere in the country recently. This will likely wane as it gets warmer and start up more in the southern hemisphere as they move into winter. And either way... we know that viruses like the flu are seasonal and disappear when it turns warmer so that would be good. Continuing winter-like weather through spring is not ideal right now... but what people want is irrelevant anyways.

There’s lots of community spread in both New Orleans and Miami/Fort Lauderdale right now.

 

Not all viruses are seasonal.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  I was looking a little bit deeper into how unstable the models have been with this possible coming cold snap.  Some of the greatest uncertainty you will ever see at such close range.  The 12z GEM is about 180 degrees out of phase with the 0z by or even slightly before day 5.

[TT-SEA]

There’s lots of community spread in both New Orleans and Miami/Fort Lauderdale right now.

 

Not all viruses are seasonal.

 

 

Many are... so warmer weather will improve the overall situation either way.   

 

But it does not matter what people want.   Nature is running the show as usual.

[Phil]

Or warm weather could make it worse, if more people are inclined to leave their homes and spread it.

 

There’s no evidence this virus responds significantly to temperature. Stop invoking the virus to ram your personal weather preferences down other people’s throats. It’s gross.

[TT-SEA]

Or warm weather could make it worse, if more people are inclined to leave their homes and spread it.

 

There’s no evidence this virus responds significantly to temperature.

 

 

Its going to warm up in the northern hemisphere either way.   And people are going to do what they are going to do.  

 

Sun and natural vitamin D are good for the immune system and kills many viruses.    And its good for many people mentally as well and that plays a role in overall health.  We could play this dumb game all day long but none of it changes anything.