March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Today will probably be the mildest day of the next several.

[Omegaraptor]

12z GFS is substantially more zonal with SW flow in the mid-long range. Definitely a good thing because of how dry it’s been but it looks like the models are still confused.

 

Tomorrow should be a pretty fun and convective day. The low has trended south and also deepened the last few NAM runs.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble, GFS operational, and GFS ensemble control all show nearly a week straight of 850s in the -4 to -6.5 range.  No easy feat for early April!

[snow_wizard]

12z GFS is substantially more zonal with SW flow in the mid-long range. Definitely a good thing because of how dry it’s been but it looks like the models are still confused.

 

Tomorrow should be a pretty fun and convective day.

 

What's wrong with dry?  I for one need some sun to lift this gloomy feeling many of us are having.  Quite frankly a string of clear / frosty nights sounds wonderful to me.  If the coming pattern were pushed south just a tad we would be looking at historic cold for this time year.  That has been the case a number of times this season.

[Omegaraptor]

What's wrong with dry?  I for one need some sun to lift this gloomy feeling many of us are having.  Quite frankly a string of clear / frosty nights sounds wonderful to me.  If the coming pattern were pushed south just a tad we would be looking at historic cold for this time year.  That has been the case a number of times this season.

Nothing wrong with sun or dry, and I love big diurnal ranges. However, it’s simply been very dry in my part of the region since early February. We could definitely use a heavy rain event to alleviate the precip deficit. Would also really help spring growth come along.

[Phil]

What's wrong with dry? I for one need some sun to lift this gloomy feeling many of us are having. Quite frankly a string of clear / frosty nights sounds wonderful to me. If the coming pattern were pushed south just a tad we would be looking at historic cold for this time year. That has been the case a number of times this season.

I’ve seen the Sun once in 2 weeks and I’m good. Wish we saved this cloudiness for July though.

 

Same out there?

[Omegaraptor]

I’ve seen the Sun once in 2 weeks and I’m good.

Been a crazy cloudy spring though. Same out there?

March has definitely been sunnier than average out here. Overcast the past several days though.

[MossMan]

What's wrong with dry? I for one need some sun to lift this gloomy feeling many of us are having. Quite frankly a string of clear / frosty nights sounds wonderful to me. If the coming pattern were pushed south just a tad we would be looking at historic cold for this time year. That has been the case a number of times this season.

I would love that. This constant wet and cold is getting a little depressing with everything else going on.

[Gradient Keeper]

Tiny sun break! Sort of. More of a pocket of brightening skies. Nice nonetheless after the deluge overnight into the early-mid morning hours. C'MON!!!!

 

00z GFS in 9 hours 15 minutes

[Blizzard777]

.53 overnight....it didn’t wake me but it unfortunately wiped away my paint job on the side of the house.  It’s protected from regular rain but apparently that wasn’t regular rain early this morning.  Luckily just a small area effected 

Good day you crazy fun bunch 

[MossMan]

Up to .52” on the day.

44 degrees.

[snow_wizard]

I continue to be flummoxed by the behavior of the SOI this season.  We are currently in a Indian Ocean (becoming Maritime Continent) MJO wave and yet the SOI is tanked.  Normally those regions would bring high SOI.  Perhaps it's just a localized fluke this time around?

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF looks just plain chilly for the first third of April.  I'm a bit bummed it never becomes solidly continental though.  Maybe it will eventually evolve into that.

[Requiem]

[Omegaraptor]

I see some windy conditions tonight ✌

NAM output is yielding 49 MPH gusts for 3AM tomorrow, with EURO in the 40-45 range. Get up early and watch the squall line move through? Hmm, I might...

[Requiem]

NAM output is yielding 49 MPH gusts for 3AM tomorrow, with EURO in the 40-45 range. Get up early and watch the squall line move through? Hmm, I might...

NAM definitely neutered it this run. Sadly. Don’t know what the output is saying now.

[MossMan]

The sun!!!!!!

[Omegaraptor]

Heavy shower just came through and the sun is back out. There is another heavy shower on radar to my SW (NW of Sherwood currently) and it is beelining towards here.

[Front Ranger]

The sun!!!!!!

SW flow. Olympic Shadowing!

[Omegaraptor]

 

Sharp cutoff on this convective cloud.

[seattleweatherguy]

must be a big rainshadow over the central sound

[Jesse]

I would love that. This constant wet and cold is getting a little depressing with everything else going on.

Both February and March have been way sunnier and drier than normal. I respect the fact that people have been struggling with their mood lately but let’s keep it real.

[Jesse]

What's wrong with dry? I for one need some sun to lift this gloomy feeling many of us are having. Quite frankly a string of clear / frosty nights sounds wonderful to me. If the coming pattern were pushed south just a tad we would be looking at historic cold for this time year. That has been the case a number of times this season.

The colder solution the models have now converged upon is actually a good deal wetter than the potentially drier and ridgy one they were hinting at a few days ago. Which is good because we are way below normal for rainfall down here.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EURO 10 Day Snowfall Totals was even more bullish than the already bullish 00z. The password is bullish.

 

[Jesse]

Since the EPS probably won’t be posted anymore for awhile, I wanted to mention that it is pretty much in lockstep with the very chilly operational run through next weekend. Really excited for the potential of a cold week ahead!

[Gradient Keeper]

Since the EPS probably won’t be posted anymore for awhile, I wanted to mention that it is pretty much in lockstep with the very chilly operational run through next weekend. Really excited for the potential of a cold week ahead!

IF that leads to mountain snows and cold air convection for us, hail and thunder? Yeah. Me too.

[TT-SEA]

Since the EPS probably won’t be posted anymore for awhile, I wanted to mention that it is pretty much in lockstep with the very chilly operational run through next weekend. Really excited for the potential of a cold week ahead!

Another crock of sh*t from you. I post cold EPS maps all the time. I don't hide from things that I might not like... as some people do.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z GFS ensembles are pretty darn chilly. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty wet morning....0.74” today but has been partly sunny this afternoon and nice overall since noon. 53 here.

[snow_wizard]

Since the EPS probably won’t be posted anymore for awhile, I wanted to mention that it is pretty much in lockstep with the very chilly operational run through next weekend. Really excited for the potential of a cold week ahead!

 

The EPS teleconnection forecasts are really impressive.  We will be in a significantly negative PNA, EPO, and WPO until further notice.  That means a lot of uncertainty with details, but a good shot at abnormal cold.  I think we still have a decent shot at some continental cold before this over.  Really impressive analogs right now with many of them pre 1975.

[snow_wizard]

18z GFS ensembles are pretty darn chilly. 

 

For SEA the mean and GFS operational both bottom out around -7.

[Gradient Keeper]

Another crock of sh*t from you. I post cold EPS maps all the time. I don't hide from things that I might not like... as some people do.

 

That looks quite chilly for early April! Thanks, Tim aka "Dang It, Tim!"

[Gradient Keeper]

Is it too much to ask for an arctic front in June to lift north from South America burying Mexico in feet of snow, then the southwest US in colossal blizzards progressing northward over the PNW? C'MON!!!! Nah, that isn't unrealistic at all. I'm sure Greta what's her face believes its possible.

[Jesse]

Mild day with some morning rain and a brief bout of afternoon showers, but lots of sunbreaks as well. 57/47 here.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's breezy n stuff. I guess I should pay attention to our weather, the WRF n stuff, and not analysis for Texas. C'moN!!!!

[Jesse]

It's breezy n stuff. I guess I should pay attention to our weather, the WRF n stuff, and not analysis for Texas. C'moN!!!!

I was going to mention the SSW winds have gotten breezy this early evening.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Man that trough is looking cold for this time of year!

[Gradient Keeper]

 

[El_Nina]

Looks like some orographic enhancement is starting the rain again over parts of Marion and Clackamas counties. Now adding to the glorious 0.32" that fell before sunrise earlier today.

3.56" on the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My goodness the 00z GFS is bonkers.