March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

How did a discussion about average annual precip in certain microclimates morph into beating the same dead horse about where it's been wetter than average?

 

I mean I know the answer. But still.

[Jesse]

They were certainly not the epicenter.

 

I saw snow falling with that trough. Even during THE DAY.

[jcmcgaffey]

I don't care if Randy's house high up in the mountains there averages 200 inches of rain per year. Its still been even wetter than the normal there.

 

 

 

Side note - SEA and OLM are both just about 4 inches above normal for the year. That drier than normal area is not real and includes 4 stations with partial data blended in.

. While I agree with your statement about the stations being off and Randy’s area being wetter than normal. Any area east of I5 is going to be wetter than PDX especially the further East you go. Every mile east of I5 is substantially wetter. West of I5 can be quite a bit drier unless you’re in the north king/south Snohomish convergence zone.

[MossMan]

I don't care if Randy's house high up in the mountains there averages 200 inches of rain per year. Its still been even wetter than the normal there.

 

 

 

Side note - SEA and OLM are both just about 4 inches above normal for the year. That drier than normal area is not real and includes 4 stations with partial data blended in.

I’m in the purple!

[Jesse]

I’m in the purple!

 

That means lots of snow!

[Omegaraptor]

How did a discussion about average annual precip in certain microclimates morph into beating the same dead horse about where it's been wetter than average?

 

I mean I know the answer. But still.

You’d think with North Bend being drier than average this March (at least according to WRCC maps) we’d be able to avoid beating the dead horse about precipitation north and east of Seattle.

 

Guess not.

 

[TT-SEA]

. While I agree with your statement about the stations being off and Randy’s area being wetter than normal. Any area east of I5 is going to be wetter than PDX especially the further East you go. Every mile east of I5 is substantially wetter. West of I5 can be quite a bit drier unless you’re in the north king/south Snohomish convergence zone.

 

That is not entirely true.   There are many areas that are basically flat for a few miles to the east of I-5.   Actually most of the drive from Seattle to Bellingham in fact... except for the southern part of Whatcom County and the northwest corner of Skagit County.

[MossMan]

If I remember correctly I had 4” of snow in April of 2008. I was living at our family lake house at the time. Elevation is just under 500’. Was pretty epic to see that much snow in April!

[Jesse]

00z ensembles are incredibly consistent with the cold, for this late in the season.

[TT-SEA]

You’d think with North Bend being drier than average this March (at least according to WRCC maps) we’d be able to avoid beating the dead horse about precipitation north and east of Seattle.

 

Guess not.

 

26DE7A07-D2CA-4D08-BFB3-1B6BDAB2A97A.png

 

 

I stated numerous times that its been a drier than normal March here and for the entire area.  

 

But you act as if his precip totals (like today) are just because he lives in some magically wet area... but its been way wetter than normal in his area.     And its not that different than the Portland area on average.   There are many times when he gets way less rain than most areas.

[TT-SEA]

If I remember correctly I had 4” of snow in April of 2008. I was living at our family lake house at the time. Elevation is just under 500’. Was pretty epic to see that much snow in April!

 

 

Pretty sure that was the day we had 6 inches here... that was the second fastest snow melt I have seen here as it was almost all gone by noon.  The fastest was losing 24 inches overnight in early December 2007.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

If the 00Z GFS is right... most of the precip along the West Coast over the next week will be focused on Oregon.    Nature is balancing it out.   

 

[Omegaraptor]

I stated numerous times that its been a drier than normal March here and for the entire area.  

 

But you act as if his precip totals (like today) are just because he lives in some magically wet area... but its been way wetter than normal in his area.     And its not that different than the Portland area on average.   There are many times when he gets way less rain than most areas.

Looking at WRCC stations in Snohomish and Skagit Counties:

 

Monroe, at 120’ elevation, gets 48” of rainfall per year.

 

Arlington, at 100’ elevation, gets 46” per year.

 

Sedro-Woolley, at 70’ elevation, gets 46” per year.

 

But clearly Mossman’s location at 550’ elevation gets 37” per year.

[TT-SEA]

Feels more normal and comforting than obsessing over death stats in the other thread.  

[Jesse]

Looking at WRCC stations in Snohomish and Skagit Counties:

 

Monroe, at 120’ elevation, gets 48” of rainfall per year.

 

Arlington, at 100’ elevation, gets 46” per year.

 

Sedro-Woolley, at 70’ elevation, gets 46” per year.

 

But clearly Mossman’s location at 550’ elevation gets 37” per year.

 

You know he is just going to keep changing the subject and trying to refocus things. I think it's obvious to just about anyone at this point that Mossman's location is notably wetter than PDX. But getting him to admit that is a losing battle.

 

Of course, admitting that location is wetter than PDX doesn't mean that anyone is going to forget what has been rammed down out throats for years now. Some parts of NW Washington have been WET at points if you look at certain time frames!

[MossMan]

That means lots of snow!

Yay!

[TT-SEA]

Looking at WRCC stations in Snohomish and Skagit Counties:

 

Monroe, at 120’ elevation, gets 48” of rainfall per year.

 

Arlington, at 100’ elevation, gets 46” per year.

 

Sedro-Woolley, at 70’ elevation, gets 46” per year.

 

But clearly Mossman’s location at 550’ elevation gets 37” per year.

 

 

I actually never said it was exactly the same as PDX... but it was not that different than the Portland area overall.      You guys act like he gets 200 inches of rain per year.    Battle Ground averages 51 inches for example.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ensembles are incredibly consistent with the cold, for this late in the season.

Yeah the period of chilly weather just keeps extending further and further out. A TON of Mt. Snow

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[MossMan]

Pretty sure that was the day we had 6 inches here... that was the second fastest snow melt I have seen here as it was almost all gone by noon. The fastest was losing 24 inches overnight in early December 2007.

Oh and I met my wife that month...All in all it was quite the dynamic month!

[MossMan]

Looking at WRCC stations in Snohomish and Skagit Counties:

 

Monroe, at 120’ elevation, gets 48” of rainfall per year.

 

Arlington, at 100’ elevation, gets 46” per year.

 

Sedro-Woolley, at 70’ elevation, gets 46” per year.

 

But clearly Mossman’s location at 550’ elevation gets 37” per year.

I’m currently at 24.25” of rainfall since January 1st.

[TT-SEA]

I’m currently at 24.25” of rainfall since January 1st.

 

 

Monroe was at 28.24 inches for the year before today... so you are running at least 4 inches behind that station which is much lower than your mountain chalet.   

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF keeps the rain farther south on Saturday... possibly a dry day for most of western WA.

 

Sunday looks pretty dry as well.   

[Jesse]

Euro shows temps in the mid to upper 30s in the Willamette valley on Saturday afternoon with moderate precip. That would be pretty historic.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EURO 10 Day Snowfall Totals

Seriously?

 

[Omegaraptor]

00z EURO 10 Day Snowfall Totals

Seriously?

 

Excellent mountain snow pattern comes and I can’t even ski it. Worst possible timing. I’d be pretty excited if all the ski resorts weren’t closed.

[Jesse]

Excellent mountain snow pattern comes and I can’t even ski it. Worst possible timing. I’d be pretty excited if all the ski resorts weren’t closed.

Less chance of wildfires this summer and fuller rivers is excitement enough.

[Phil]

You’d think with North Bend being drier than average this March (at least according to WRCC maps) we’d be able to avoid beating the dead horse about precipitation north and east of Seattle.

 

Guess not.

 

26DE7A07-D2CA-4D08-BFB3-1B6BDAB2A97A.png

Tim won’t be happy until the average January afternoon is 95*F with no clouds and all the trees are dead.

[snow_wizard]

Truly remarkable duration of below normal temperatures being shown on the last few ensemble runs.  850s of -2 or below for nearly the entire run.  Now we have another sub -5  period developing early in week 2.

[BLI snowman]

Rainfall accumulating here.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like an historically cold April may be possible the way this is going.  It appears the second round of cold now showing up for week two may be more continental than what we will be seeing this week.  Should be an interesting mix of well below normal max and min temps over the next two weeks.  It will be interesting to see how many days have both well below normal.

 

One noteworthy thing that has emerged is 1955 being a nearly constant analog for a few weeks now.  Doesn't get much colder than that year!

 

Also a really interesting progression of temperatures this year.  Temps below are from MBY.

 

Jan = 43.1 ... +3.1

Feb = 41.6 ... 0.0

Mar = 42.9 ... -1.7

 

April looks like it will be an easy -3.0 or lower.

[jcmcgaffey]

Quote from Komo weather

 

“Does the weather play a role in the spread of COVID-19? A recent study published to the research site SSRN finds 90 percent of the virus transmission has occurred within a certain temperature (37-63 degrees F) and humidity range. For example, warmer Florida has seen a slower growth rate compared to our relatively cooler Washington State. The statistical connection of warm, humid weather inhibiting the spread of the coronavirus is not full-proof, however, as more laboratory tests are needed and are currently being conducted.”

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Absolutely nasty morning, rain, snow, and hail. 34 degrees. Over 1 1/2" of precip in the past 30 hours. 

[FroYoBro]

Just had a refreshing rain shower pass on through here. Sitting at 40 degrees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oregon snow pack took a massive jump overnight. It will be above average in most of the state by weeks end. 

[TT-SEA]

Oregon snow pack took a massive jump overnight. It will be above average in most of the state by weeks end.

Nice!

[Front Ranger]

[Front Ranger]

Quote from Komo weather

 

“Does the weather play a role in the spread of COVID-19? A recent study published to the research site SSRN finds 90 percent of the virus transmission has occurred within a certain temperature (37-63 degrees F) and humidity range. For example, warmer Florida has seen a slower growth rate compared to our relatively cooler Washington State. The statistical connection of warm, humid weather inhibiting the spread of the coronavirus is not full-proof, however, as more laboratory tests are needed and are currently being conducted.”

Chicken or egg? Either way, that data is already outdated. Florida's spread has been more rapid than WA over the past couple weeks.

 

I think you just have to look at when the virus arrived at different locations. Once it gets going, weather doesn't seem to play a large role.

[TacomaWaWx]

Down to 36 this morning...no rainfall so far today. Picked up 0.80” yesterday and 0.75” the day before to go to 3.90” for March.

[TacomaWaWx]

Cliff mass thinks some places even close to sea level could see flakes in the air this week according to his latest blog. Pretty interesting how we’ve had anomalous cold to start and finish this cold season...just couldn’t get a good set up in the prime of this winter unfortunately.