March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Hungry coast range today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently 42, low of 34 this morning. Actually a few sunbreaks. 

[Jesse]

Currently 42, low of 34 this morning. Actually a few sunbreaks.

 

Andrew did you see that the Northern Oregon Cascades are up to 98% of normal snowpack and the Willamette Basin is up to 96% and even the southern Oregon basins have seen like a 10% jump!

[El_Nina]

Just saw Dave Salesky.

[Jesse]

Heard that Timberline and meadows have had over two feet of snow in the last 36 hours.

[Jesse]

Fortunately the 12Z Euro is a little cooler and wetter this weekend than the GFS. Seems to put some sort of deformation zone over the Puget Sound area on Saturday. Would be nice if we could get in on that action down here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heard that Timberline and meadows have had over two feet of snow in the last 36 hours.

 

Bachelor had about 30". SCORE

[MossMan]

Sunny drizzle with a few snowflakes mixed in currently!

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Euro is not on board with the GEM not being on board.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heavy shower started as hail/grapuel and turned to snow. 34 with light snow at noon on March 31st. 

 

[Jesse]

Heavy shower started as hail/grapuel and turned to snow. 34 with light snow at noon on March 31st.

 

Your hemlocks are looking healthy, Andrew.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro is not on board with the GEM not being on board.

As expected. GEM is the outlier.

[Phil]

Much like what happened with the super +AO/+EPO combos in 2006/07 and 2011/12, the Arctic ice pack has taken a massive hit. Huge quantities of old, think, multiyear ice have been flushed out of the basin through of the Fram strait, while the constant churning/tumbling has broken up CAB ice and slowed refreezing across the basin.

 

Gonna be an ugly melt out, unless the pattern this summer is very, very, very favorable for ice maintenance.

 

[Kayla]

Heavy shower started as hail/grapuel and turned to snow. 34 with light snow at noon on March 31st. 

 

 

That's some of the greenest dormant grass I've ever seen!!

[Jesse]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's some of the greenest dormant grass I've ever seen!!

 

Fertilized about a week and a half ago. It's greening up, it will grow enough to mow soon.  

[Jesse]

Fertilized about a week and a half ago. It's greening up, it will grow enough to mow soon.

Do you fertilize using sheep poop?

[Jesse]

Looks like a fairly intense cell is about to move directly over PDX.

 

A shower clipped us earlier and dropped the temp to 45. The sun is out again now but still feels chilly with a WNW breeze. DPs have dropped into the low to mid 30s.

[BLI snowman]

The virus?

 

Not many sunspots this year in Chinese wet markets.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do you fertilize using sheep poop?

 

It is good fertilizer, so yes for the garden, no to the front lawn. 

[Jesse]

Not many sunspots this year in Chinese wet markets.

Surprising since I’ve heard ingesting them with turmeric can increase sexual prowess.

[Phil]

You just had to come and crash our cold spring party.

Ha, well it doesn’t really factor into your May-August weather. All of the severe melt out will likely be on the Eurasian side + CAB domain, and you’re not advecting air from there into the PNW at that time of year.

 

But it goes to show how destructive a +EPO/+NAM circulation can be. That combo was rare during the ice building era of the 1960s/70s..z-cells were set up such that when super +EPO happened, it was usually in tandem with a -NAO/-NAM and often -PNA. Much less WAA/clouds/windiness/ice flushing with that pattern of sunlight is absent.

[BLI snowman]

Surprising since I’ve heard ingesting them with turmeric can increase sexual prowess.

 

I heard cumin can also do that.

[Jesse]

I heard cumin can also do that.

Let’s not put the cart before the horse.

[Phil]

People think of +AO as a “cold arctic” pattern. But that’s not true at the surface during the arctic winter.

 

It’s a cloudy, windy, anti-radiative pattern in the absence of sunlight. It flushes old/thick ice into the NATL, and slows refreezing.

 

So the basin is subsequently more vulnerable to meltout come summer. Just the worst possible combo. That +AO circulation even slows the Beaufort Gyre (the BG holds MYI in place in the western Arctic for several years at a time, allowing it to grow). That can have decadal scale consequences depending on the persistence of patterns.

 

It’s a terrible pattern to have during the winter.

[Jesse]

PDX reporting heavy hail, temp down to 43 there

 

Just some light rain here on the northern edge of the cell. 44 degrees. Hoping for some intense showers to track this way at some point today.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like shower coverage is starting to increase in the south sound. Had a brief heavy hail shower move through yesterday maybe we will see more today.

[Phil]

PDX reporting heavy hail, temp down to 43 there

 

Just some light rain here on the northern edge of the cell. 44 degrees. Hoping for some intense showers to track this way at some point today.

Heavy hail. Can’t say I’ve ever seen that ob before.

[Jesse]

Heavy hail. Can’t say I’ve ever seen that ob before.

I was thinking the same thing.

[Deweydog]

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

[Cloud]

Good lord.

 

Will the GFS deliver for once this season?

Stay tuned.

[El_Nina]

Getting some light hail.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Good lord.

 

I normally prefer warm and dry weather as we head into April but this year I wouldn't mind cold and wet weather if it helps people stay at home to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus.

[Timmy Supercell]

No hail or thunder here, but had a few decent showers around noon!

[Gradient Keeper]

3 hail shower/storms today so far. The 2nd one I let it pelt me IN THE FACE. Because I can. I like the cold core convective stuff, but only quick hitting troughs, not a persistent chilly/cold pattern. C'MON!!!!

[Winterdog]

Had a vigorous thunder storm with up to half inch hail a while ago. Video won’t upload but here is what’s left

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles look nice.

[Jesse]