March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

FWIW the NAM (esp 12km) tends run a bit cool/moist in the boundary layer. Less of an issue with the 3km version. This is assuming all else is equal w/ precip placement/intensity, storm track, etc.

 

The ECMWF is (usually) far superior. Which is ironic since it’s a global model and the NAM is built for mesoscale dynamics. But alas..

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah its the only one still showing awesome amounts here.  NAM 3km has me at 5 inches. 

 

The ICON follows pretty much the same track as the NAM. I don't really trust the ICON for anything though and the NAM is more useful within 48 hrs and in the higher resolution variants IMO.

[OysterPrintout]

The snow talk has certainly gone viral!

What we all need is some vitamin S!

 

 

 

 

 

 

S=snow

[Phil]

I don’t know things work out there, but around here the NAM is usually an unreliable piece of garbage. Every now and then it’ll score a coup, but it’s rare.

 

The 12km version is a disaster..it seldom gets the location of the mesoscale features correctly. Can be 100 miles off with a deform band within 6hrs of initialization.

 

The 3km is much better. But still loses to the HRRR at game time in ~ 60-70% of cases. At least that’s my experience.

[Deweydog]

NAM bad!!!!

 

FV3 good!!!!

[Esquimalt]

The ICON follows pretty much the same track as the NAM. I don't really trust the ICON for anything though and the NAM is more useful within 48 hrs and in the higher resolution variants IMO.

Interestingly the icon is much warmer.  Shows all rain down here. 

[Perturbed Member]

I love the outdoors/hate the indoors, man. I typically spend several hours per day outside, though during the summer it was only because I had to work outside..we’ll see what happens this year since I’ve resigned from that job, lol.

 

But yeah, I always have my window open except for the dead of winter and the dog days of summer. Like, anytime I’m there I need it open. My gf and I get into drawn out arguments over it. I’ll never understand people that need the indoor temp within the same 2-3*F range. It’s weird.

 

Yeah I too try to spend as much time outdoors as my schedule allows, especially in the summer. The fresh air is nice and also being exposed to natural light and moving around is refreshing. I work a desk job like many and sometimes work weird shifts too and I feel really screwed up if my circadian rhythm gets out of wack. Being outside helps me reset and synchronize instead of sitting in a dark office. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-R-eqJDQ2nU

 

This was a really good talk on this topic. It's pretty ridiculous how many things in the body are actually tied to this circadian rhythm. Seems to be at least one of the reasons why people feel more well by going out for a little walk.

[Perturbed Member]

Interestingly the icon is much warmer.  Shows all rain down here. 

 

Yeah it is often like that, seems it has a warm bias at least for the surface temp. 

[Perturbed Member]

I don’t know things work out there, but around here the NAM is usually an unreliable piece of garbage. Every now and then it’ll score a coup, but it’s rare.

 

The 12km version is a disaster..it seldom gets the location of the mesoscale features correctly. Can be 100 miles off with a deform band within 6hrs of initialization.

 

The 3km is much better. But still loses to the HRRR at game time in ~ 60-70% of cases. At least that’s my experience.

 

I've found the 3km NAM to be at least worth looking at in the short range. It has had some solid wins like the Jan 10 2017 snowstorm in PDX that most models really struggled with. The 12km generally seems to be here, especially towards the end of its range.

 

 

GFS ensembles showing pretty good confidence in the position of that low by Friday AM. Would be curious to see what the EPS members think. I'd be pretty surprised if the NAM ends up being correct on this vs GFS/Euro/GEM.

[Jesse]

NAM bad!!!!

FV3 good!!!!

Hate to interrupt the proclamations and posturing, but what do you think will happen?

[Prairiedog]

How the pattern progresses next week should be interesting to follow. Lots of uncertainty with that ULL spinning over California. Could easily end up on the cool and wet side if it ends up a little further north than progged.

 

 

Yeah it is still super marginal but at least has some credibility.

 

-10C 850mb temps in the gorge, surface temps there in the mid 20s and an east wind along with healthy precip rates from an ideally positioned low. Hopefully that frontogenesis being advertised actually pans out. I'll take some Jan 10 2017 style frontogenesis and convection please  . Even though that was a different setup.

 

I wonder what the magical temps will have to be to actually get sticking snow on the streets IF this happens.  Sun angle has warmed surfaces and even during the day it will be tough to get sticking snow on the streets with a higher sun.  I'd bet temps would have to be 28f max to get things sticking.  Hey, I'd still be happy with 33f snow in March for a day.  Looks to me there will be possible light southerly drift to start with.  That isn't going to help either if we want sticking snow on the valley floor. 

 

[Jesse]

I wonder what the magical temps will have to be to actually get sticking snow on the streets IF this happens.  Sun angle has warmed surfaces and even during the day it will be tough to get sticking snow on the streets with a higher sun.  I'd bet temps would have to be 28f max to get things sticking.  Hey, I'd still be happy with 33f snow in March for a day.  Looks to me there will be possible light southerly drift to start with.  That isn't going to help either if we want sticking snow on the valley floor.

 

28F isn’t going to happen with precip around, but we wouldn’t need temps anywhere near that for sticking. Even this time of year snow can stick at 32-33 without too much trouble if precip rates are heavy enough and it’s night time.

[Deweydog]

Hate to interrupt the proclamations and posturing, but what do you think will happen?

Dunno...

 

Lack of model consistency and the calendar suggests it’s a wide range of possibilities combined with a fairly narrow window of lowland scoreability.

 

Wait for it...

 

Time will tell!

[Jesse]

NAM is still noticeably further north and then west with the low. Good dynamics on the Olympic Peninsula and Hood Canal but not much anywhere else.

I am glad the Euro is in our camp right now. That’s got to be worth like four or five NAMs if I’m getting my model exchange rates right.

[Jesse]

Dunno...

Lack of model consistency and the calendar suggests it’s a wide range of possibilities combined with a fairly narrow window of lowland scoreability.

Wait for it...

Time will tell!

Scared to make a forecast...it’s ok we’ve all been there

[Deweydog]

Scared to make a forecast...it’s ok we’ve all been there

Cool spring.

[Jesse]

Cool spring.

 

Give me broad brushed or give me death!

[Deweydog]

Give me broad brushed or give me death!

I must have missed yours amidst the virus updates.

[Jesse]

I must have missed yours amidst the virus updates.

 

I've been saying we should make a forecast thread for like two days now!

[Deweydog]

I've been saying we should make a forecast thread for like two days now!

You NEED a specific thread to make a forecast?

 

Millennials...

[Jesse]

You NEED a specific thread to make a forecast?

 

Millennials...

 

This is coming from the guy who has made more humorously titled forecasts threads than any one else here by a margin of EURO to NAM??

 

Ok boomer...

[Esquimalt]

RGEM/HRDPS coming on more similarly to the nam

[Jesse]

18z Fv3 looks pretty good for Portland. Low landfalls a little south of Tillamook. Also shows an enticingly wet pattern for us in the mid-range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z Fv3 looks pretty good for Portland. Low landfalls a little south of Tillamook. Also shows an enticingly wet pattern for us in the mid-range.

 

I am excited about this weekend. 

 

That one in the mid-range is kind of a classic system for a March snow up here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run is beautiful.

[Jesse]

I am excited about this weekend. 

 

That one in the mid-range is kind of a classic system for a March snow up here. 

 

Some chilly troughing on the long range 18Z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some chilly troughing on the long range 18Z.

 

Beautiful.

[Jesse]

I bet you can't wait to see the ensembles Andrew.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I bet you can't wait to see the ensembles Andrew.

 

I am changing my last name to Ensemble.

[Jesse]

I am changing my last name to Ensemble.

 

:0

[SilverFallsAndrew]

:0

 

Middle name GFS.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Game on, My lady came up to me and said we need to go to the cabin! good timing.

[Kayla]

I wonder what the magical temps will have to be to actually get sticking snow on the streets IF this happens. Sun angle has warmed surfaces and even during the day it will be tough to get sticking snow on the streets with a higher sun. I'd bet temps would have to be 28f max to get things sticking. Hey, I'd still be happy with 33f snow in March for a day. Looks to me there will be possible light southerly drift to start with. That isn't going to help either if we want sticking snow on the valley floor.

 

Doubt you’ll see very little if any sticking snow on road surfaces with this. It has to be a heck of a lot colder than 28 degrees during the day to see those road surfaces turn white this time of year.

[Jesse]

A fairly cool month might possible if we weren't overachieving on high temps every day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles could have been better. Could have been worse too. 

[TacomaWaWx]

I’m very interested to see what happens this weekend...even if we don’t get snow in Tacoma it’s still going to be pretty interesting. Some of us will definitely score something.

[TacomaWaWx]

49/41 today with 0.05” this morning.

[Perturbed Member]

At least the last 6 if not more GFS runs actually take a really similar track with the Friday low and the ensemble support looks good too. Hopefully counts for something. I'm still quite skeptical about the GFS and its cold bias but having the euro on board makes me feel better about seeing something. Snow in the air at the lowest elevations looking quite doable. 

[Esquimalt]

Does anyone have the 18Z Euro maps?

[TT-SEA]

Does anyone have the 18Z Euro maps?