March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Perturbed Member]

I wonder what the magical temps will have to be to actually get sticking snow on the streets IF this happens.  Sun angle has warmed surfaces and even during the day it will be tough to get sticking snow on the streets with a higher sun.  I'd bet temps would have to be 28f max to get things sticking.  Hey, I'd still be happy with 33f snow in March for a day.  Looks to me there will be possible light southerly drift to start with.  That isn't going to help either if we want sticking snow on the valley floor. 

 

 

I think good precip rates and just around freezing is still good enough. It is hard to get those together though, especially this time of year. Upper 20s and snow isn't going to happen with this. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Good chance most people will atleast see some snow in the air. Euro is pretty chilly too. Maybe this will be a fun Portland special to make up for the lame winter down there.

[Requiem]

At least the last 6 if not more GFS runs actually take a really similar track with the Friday low and the ensemble support looks good too. Hopefully counts for something. I'm still quite skeptical about the GFS and its cold bias but having the euro on board makes me feel better about seeing something. Snow in the air at the lowest elevations looking quite doable.

The EURO being similar inspires confidence. I may get a few flurries here at the top of the West Hills.

[Dave]

It has been beautiful for the last several days. Frosty mornings and mild days. Hardly a cloud in the sky. My prediction for eugene is a few positive windshield splats.

[GHweatherChris]

I feel a rug pull is on the horizon.

[Esquimalt]

I feel a rug pull is on the horizon.

I feel it’s a northerly pull

[Perturbed Member]

Mark:

[GHweatherChris]

I feel it’s a northerly pull

Rugs can be pulled in any direction.

[Requiem]

I feel it’s a northerly pull

Of course— that would be preferable for you. Either way PDX has a better chance simply because of the added Gorge influence this weekend, I feel.

[Perturbed Member]

I feel it’s a northerly pull

 

I think climo would favor you, especially this time of year. 

[van city]

I see people get excited about cold rain. Time to move on to spring.

[Jesse]

Mark:

Mark’s ready for spring.

[Jesse]

I feel it’s a northerly pull

I really hope you don’t get any snow

[Deweydog]

[Omegaraptor]

Mark:

This February/March it’s been pretty easy to know when it’s a weekend simply by looking outside. Warm/sunny Monday-Thursday... then cold troughing moves in on Friday like clockwork and it warms up again on Monday.

[van city]

I really hope you don’t get any snow

Probably not. In mid March he need a lot more than this to get snow.

[Jesse]

Probably not. In mid March he need a lot more than this to get snow.

Then it ain’t gonna happen since this is TOP TIER!!

[BLI snowman]

I am glad the Euro is in our camp right now. That’s got to be worth like four or five NAMs if I’m getting my model exchange rates right.

 

JMA also disagrees with the NAM.

 

72 hours on the NAM is basically 168 hours on the GFS and 240 hours on the Euro.

[Perturbed Member]

JMA also disagrees with the NAM.

 

72 hours on the NAM is basically 168 hours on the GFS and 240 hours on the Euro.

 

You forgot the all important top tier NAVGEM. Disagrees with the NAM and is south as well.

 

[BLI snowman]

You forgot the all important top tier NAVGEM. Disagrees with the NAM and is south as well.

 

 

 

 

That was the 06z, though. 12z and 18z didn't fully load.

[Deweydog]

Still no forecast thread?

[Perturbed Member]

That was the 06z, though. 12z and 18z didn't fully load.

 

Yeah those runs might finish by the weekend at the current pace..

[Prairiedog]

I think good precip rates and just around freezing is still good enough. It is hard to get those together though, especially this time of year. Upper 20s and snow isn't going to happen with this. 

 

It would have to be really heavy rates, night-time but accums will be brief on the roadways.  The asphalt is  soaking a lot of solar up during the day now and makes it pretty tough to get a 33f snowflake to last on a 45-50f street.  Those street temps could be a little colder when the precip starts but still too warm.  It could happen briefly but unless it's prolonged heavy snow, it just won't be cold enough.   If it's daytime, obviously will be even tougher.  I'll still take an inch of wet snow and bare pavement over no snow at all in March. 

 

[Jesse]

Still no forecast thread?

Cuz you haven’t made one yet.

 

May I suggest calling it, “The March 2020 late season viral outbreak (too corona 2 snow) contest thread”? We can at least make that the working title.

[umadbro]

Enjoying these beautiful days. It's gonna be depressing when/if wet snow starts falling. It won't stick and would just be an annoyance. I'm ready for summer. 57/40 today. I was happy to not scrape frost off the windshield this morning.

[Perturbed Member]

UKMET is south too. Good low position on most models outside of the NAM and ICON. 

 

Still so many ways this thing can screw up even assuming the low comes south. Hopefully don't end up with the classic cold air getting held up and not getting here through the gorge before the precip ends problem.

[Jesse]

Should be another nice sunset and moonrise this evening. 55/38 here today.

[Jesse]

UKMET is south too. Good low position on most models outside of the NAM and ICON. 

ukmet1.png

 

Still so many ways this thing can screw up even assuming the low comes south. Hopefully don't end up with the classic cold air getting held up and not getting here through the groge before the precip ends problem.

Great news. Would be nice to even just see some flakes.

[Perturbed Member]

Great news. Would be nice to even just see some flakes.

Yeah getting a few inches would need things to come together nearly perfectly but think seeing flakes is probably more likely than not now.

 

I expect the NAM to come in line by tomorrow if not tonight.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This will over perform in some places I'd bet. Should be a pretty decent storm in the okanagan. 50 mph winds with blowing snow and low 20's is impressive for March.

[OysterPrintout]

Cuz you haven’t made one yet.

 

May I suggest calling it, “The March 2020 late season viral outbreak (too corona 2 snow) contest thread”? We can at least make that the working title.

 

SNOVID2020

[Requiem]

This cold will not quit. My teachers recommended I stay home tomorrow as well, but I’d rather get back to school ASAP tbh. Out of precaution I’ll probably take another day .

[FroYoBro]

This cold will not quit. My teachers recommended I stay home tomorrow as well, but I’d rather get back to school ASAP tbh. Out of precaution I’ll probably take another day .

 

Have you been tested?

[Requiem]

Have you gotten tested?

No, I don’t think it’s that bad yet. There’s a case near my house (which is concerning), but slowly I’m getting better. Should be able to finally get back to school on Friday. I honestly feel bad missing school— I don’t think I’m sick enough to deserve that privilege.

[Perturbed Member]

This cold will not quit. My teachers recommended I stay home tomorrow as well, but I’d rather get back to school ASAP tbh. Out of precaution I’ll probably take another day .

 

I hope you feel better soon but seriously don't go back if you're sick and especially if you can't rule out COVID19. You might be fine but think about other people, especially the elderly and vulnerable. 

[Perturbed Member]

00z NAM clearly trending south relative to 18z which was south of the 12z.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

00z NAM clearly trending south relative to 18z which was south of the 12z.

hr 51 is north of 18z

[Deweydog]

Conflicting reports!!!

[Perturbed Member]

hr 51 is north of 18z

Yeah it was out to HR 45 when I posted

 

Last 3 runs

 

 

 

 

It ends up curving back NW afterwards so it really doesn't come as far south as I expected based on the above images. NAM hasn't fundamentally changed.

[Front Ranger]

A fairly cool month might possible if we weren't overachieving on high temps every day.

 

OLM is running a -2.0!