March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS doesn't look much different. The lowland snow band is focused slightly further south I guess on this run. 

[GHweatherChris]

GFS doesn't look much different. The lowland snow band is focused slightly further south I guess on this run.

I am only concerned about my backyard, hence that run was not on board.

[MossMan]

No snow for me. Going to get the mower ready for the season on Saturday.

[TT-SEA]

No snow for me. Going to get the mower ready for the season on Saturday.

 

Yep... next week is looking beautiful now.   Good lawn mowing weather.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the record I would be surprised if there was significant lowland snow anywhere Saturday below 500'. 

[El_Nina]

Hit a low of 25 this morning. Only 3 degrees higher than the low of 22 this season set back in October. Gonna be some confused plants.

[FroYoBro]

For the record I would be surprised if there was significant lowland snow anywhere Saturday below 500'.

Yeah, the best dynamics look to be during the day on Saturday. Doesn’t work in March.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yep... next week is looking beautiful now.   Good lawn mowing weather.  

I will be going to cabin to enjoy some cold dry air and snow then come back home to a 60 degree work week. Perfect combination of weather.

[Jesse]

Such a downer that we go back to a boring and dry pattern so quickly after this weekend.

 

Low of 29 here this morning. Definitely racking up a good number of freezes this month so far. This morning is freeze #6.

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah, the best dynamics look to be during the day on Saturday. Doesn’t work in March.

 

Most of the action happens 12z-18z Saturday, good timing.

 

Even so, will be tough to get accumulation on all surfaces at the lowest elevations.

[Jesse]

Most of the action happens 12z-18z Saturday, good timing.

 

Even so, will be tough to get accumulation on all surfaces at the lowest elevations.

 

Yeah, from what I can tell the best dynamics are actually late night Friday into early Saturday. 

[Prairiedog]

29f here as well.  Third morning this week I've had to chip ice out of the guides of my fishing rod for the first couple hours of fishing.  Rivers are incredibly low and clear.  I've got two more weeks to chase winter steelhead before I switch over to Springers and I just don't see much rain to bounce the rivers over the next 10 days.  Can't run my sled and my favorite bank drifts are just pathetically low.  Sure beautiful mornings on the rivers though. 

[Perturbed Member]

Best GEM run for PDX yet. Pretty good agreement with the GFS. Snow in the air for valley floor likely.

 

 

 

 

Nice to see the GEM trending colder too. A bit warmer than the Euro and GFS but starting to get good agreement.

 

[Jesse]

29f here as well.  Third morning this week I've had to chip ice out of the guides of my fishing rod for the first couple hours of fishing.  Rivers are incredibly low and clear.  I've got two more weeks to chase winter steelhead before I switch over to Springers and I just don't see much rain to bounce the rivers over the next 10 days.  Can't run my sled and my favorite bank drifts are just pathetically low.  Sure beautiful mornings on the rivers though. 

 

I think one reason the rivers are so low is the generally cool weather has the snow still locked up  in the highlands, which is a good thing. But obviously the lack of normal rainfall at this time of year is also playing a role. Praying for a snowier pattern in the mountains late March into April.

[FroYoBro]

Yeah, from what I can tell the best dynamics are actually late night Friday into early Saturday.

Looking at the GFS again and it looks like I was off on the times for sure. My bad.

 

Saturday morning could be some nice wet snow watching.

[Jesse]

I think one reason the rivers are so low is the generally cool weather has the snow still locked up  in the highlands, which is a good thing. But obviously the lack of normal rainfall at this time of year is also playing a role. Praying for a snowier pattern in the mountains late March into April.

 

Looks like snowpack in the Mount Hood basin is currently sitting at 89%. Not terrible but could be a lot better too. Things start to get more dire as you move south through Oregon. Snowpack for the Rogue/Umpqua and Klamath basins are currently sitting at 69% and 63% respectively.

 

On a brighter note, the south Washington Cascades are currently 102% of normal. 

[Jesse]

Looking at the GFS again and it looks like I was off on the times for sure. My bad.

 

Saturday morning could be some nice wet snow watching.

 

You became enchanted by Andrew's spell.

[Jesse]

After a spike/rebound next week, the 12z ensembles are generally below average from day 7 to the end of the run.

[FroYoBro]

You became enchanted by Andrew's spell.

I’ll do anything he wants as long as I get my half inch.

[Jesse]

[ShawniganLake]

If this gfs run verified, March 2020 would end up drier than March 2019. March 2019 only had 0.57” of precip here.

[Perturbed Member]

Such a downer that we go back to a boring and dry pattern so quickly after this weekend.

 

Low of 29 here this morning. Definitely racking up a good number of freezes this month so far. This morning is freeze #6.

 

Yeah pretty disappointing. Was hoping we could stop having Sacramento's climate for a few weeks. 

 

All the more reason to enjoy whatever we get Friday-Saturday.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Sunday morning per 12Z ECMWF:

 

[Perturbed Member]

Last 3 euro runs for precip

 

 

 

Not the greatest trend...

[TT-SEA]

Last 3 euro runs for precip

 

 

 

Not the greatest trend...

 

 

Seattle folks don't have to worry about precip type... there is not even going to be much precip at all.

[Omegaraptor]

Pretty heavy snowfall in the Sierras on Euro, where they need it. Wonder how much AlTahoe will get.

[Jesse]

Last 3 euro runs for precip

 

 

 

Not the greatest trend...

 

Seems to be backing off quite a bit on the frontogenesis on the NE quadrant of the low idea.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is a little warmer than the 00Z run by Monday... good shot at 60 out here.

[MossMan]

Total snow through Sunday morning per 12Z ECMWF:

 

Wasn’t that long ago when our Canadian friends were looking at 8+ inches for this “event”.

[Perturbed Member]

Seems to be backing off quite a bit on the frontogenesis on the NE quadrant of the low idea.

 

Yeah, the 12z GFS, GEM, UKMET still have it, showing ~1 inch precip totals. The 06z Euro looked pretty decent too, big drop off for the 12z.

[MossMan]

Total snow through Sunday morning per 12Z ECMWF:

 

However Brian in Leavenworth might do well!

[TacomaWaWx]

We’ve picked up 1.60” in the last 5 weeks here. Not much the next 10 days pretty interesting how we’ve went from very dry to very wet and back to dry up here in western WA.

[TacomaWaWx]

Wasn’t that long ago when our Canadian friends were looking at 8+ inches for this “event”.

Probably will be no snow at all north of Seattle and maybe some snow in the air from Seattle to Olympia. People are gonna score down south though!

[Jesse]

We’ve picked up 1.60” in the last 5 weeks here. Not much the next 10 days pretty interesting how we’ve went from very dry to very wet and back to dry up here in western WA.

 

Been a pretty gripping progression of very dry to very dry to briefly near average to very dry down here.

[TT-SEA]

We’ve picked up 1.60” in the last 5 weeks here. Not much the next 10 days pretty interesting how we’ve went from very dry to very wet and back to dry up here in western WA.

 

 

Yeah... the last 4 weeks have been drier than normal out here as well.   

 

I am sure April will be very wet again like it has been in the Seattle area every year since 2017. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Been a pretty gripping progression of very dry to very dry to briefly near average to very dry down here.

How far below average is PDX for this rain year? I think we’re just about average....quite a bit better than last year up here in Washington anyways.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yeah... the last 4 weeks have been drier than normal out here as well.   

 

I am sure April will be very wet again like it has been in the Seattle area every year since 2017.

 

3 dry Marches in a row...2.05” here in 2018 and 1.44” in 2019. Will probably be similar this year at the end of the month.

[TT-SEA]

3 dry Marches in a row...2.05” here in 2018 and 1.44” in 2019. Will probably be similar this year at the end of the month.

Yep.

[Jesse]

How far below average is PDX for this rain year? I think we’re just about average....quite a bit better than last year up here in Washington anyways.

Yeah I hear it’s been a very rough average rain year up there so far.

 

PDX is about 7” below average since 10/1.

[TT-SEA]

How far below average is PDX for this rain year? I think we’re just about average....quite a bit better than last year up here in Washington anyways.

 

 

SEA is actually about 2 inches above normal for the rainy season and 4 inches above normal for the year.    

 

Still about 20 inches above normal out here for just this year... and KUIL is almost 16 inches above normal for the same period.

 

A dry March for western WA was sort of inevitable.    And a wet April also seems inevitable at this point.