March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

WSU just closed... my son is moving home today presumably until next fall.

[jakerepp]

That is a southward shift from the 00Z and 06Z runs though.

Is it? swear I saw one recently that was south of this. Maybe I was mistaken, or it wasn't the 00Z.

[jakerepp]

WSU just closed... my son is moving home today presumably until next fall.

All courses online then?

[TT-SEA]

Is it? swear I saw one recently that was south of this. Maybe I was mistaken, or it wasn't the 00Z.

 

 

Yeah earlier runs were farther south... then the 00Z run shifted way north to include all of the Seattle area.   The 06Z shifted south again and the 12Z run is still farther south.

[TT-SEA]

All courses online then?

 

Yes.

[jakerepp]

Yeah earlier runs were farther south... then the 00Z run shifted way north to include all of the Seattle area.   The 06Z shifted south again and the 12Z run is still farther south.

Ah, got it. I must've have missed the 00Z then. 

[Phil]

Our president... in his infinite wisdom... said we need warmer weather and this will go away.

 

But it is just an unavoidable biological fact that sunlight and natural vitamin D strengthens our immune system and UV rays destroy the virus. Of course rain is also life-giving. Go figure!

UV spectrum radiation likely isn’t present in sufficient quantities to “destroy” the virus within the timeframe of potential transmission. Temperature and humidity might be more important if airborne droplets propagate the virus since that would affect droplet size (hence buoyancy). But I’m only hypothesizing on that since we don’t know much about this virus yet.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Might have to make a trip to the cabin, looks like a impressive push of arctic air coming there with snow.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows upper 50s to around 60 degrees for highs for most of western WA and OR by Tuesday already.

 

A much quicker warm up than previous runs.

[Jesse]

UV spectrum radiation likely isn’t present in sufficient quantities to “destroy” the virus within the timeframe of potential transmission. Temperature and humidity might be more important if airborne droplets propagate the virus since that would affect droplet size (hence buoyancy). But I’m only hypothesizing on that since we don’t know much about this virus yet.

I will agree with the president I constantly mock so long as his statements align with my personal weather biases.

[TT-SEA]

I will agree with the president I constantly mock so long as his statements align with my personal weather biases.

 

 

Cut the crap.   

 

It does not matter who said it... its just a biological fact.  Viruses all but disappear when it warms up and the sun angle is higher.    I put the part about Trump in just for Andrew.  

[Phil]

There are plenty of viruses and illnesses that don't really improve with warmer weather or are more endemic in warm climates. Just yesterday Dr. Michael Osterholm from the CDC was saying that we don't have enough information to answer whether COVID-19 will improve with warmer weather so lets not make unsubstantiated claims about that.

 

About vitamin D, there is some evidence in the medical literature that healthy vitamin D levels improve resistance to upper respiratory infections. There are plenty of other benefits too. However it is pretty silly to think the sun will make a dramatic difference with this given the nature of modern lifestyles. We can make vitamin D at a fairly impressive rate if we are shirtless or mostly naked and outside when the sun is high in the sky. The needle will move much less in reality given that most people these days spend so much time indoors and are rarely walking around with lots of skin exposed. It shouldn't be a surprise then that the rates of vitamin D deficiency are really high in many industrialized countries, even at the equator. Of course your rate of cholecalciferol synthesis is even lower if you have a darker skin color.

 

The most practical solution that I've found for this is just going to the store and picking up some cheap Vitamin D3 and taking about 3000-4000 IU per day. Healthy vitamin d levels year around and without having to irradiate myself in the sun.

Vitamin-D is underrated IMO. I’ve been taking 2000-5000IU of D3 per day since 2013 for deficiency (and seasonal depression), and though I can’t prove it quantitatively, I believe it’s greatly improved my overall health. Also, I was unable to fully recover from my substance abuse issues until I started supplementing with it. Could be placebo effect or whatever, maybe my improved health is partially or completely a result of the successful rehabilitation, but overall this is my subjective take on it.

[TT-SEA]

Vitamin-D is underrated IMO. I’ve been taking 2000-5000IU of D3 per day since 2013 for deficiency (and seasonal depression), and though I can’t prove it quantitatively, I believe it’s greatly improved my overall health. Also, I was unable to fully recover from my substance abuse issues until I started supplementing with it. Could be placebo effect or whatever, maybe my improved health is partially or completely a result of the successful rehabilitation, but overall this is my subjective take on it.

 

 

Its a huge deal in the medical field.    And supplements are really important in northern climates in the winter.   But you can't replicate nature... and being outside in the sun.   That is the best way to flood your system with natural vitamin D.   Those warm weather vacations in the dead of winter to low latitude places like Hawaii also help immensely.   

[Deweydog]

Last I heard was that baby was in Reno with the vitamin D.

 

I haven’t heard of ANY babies getting this virus so far?

[Jesse]

Didn’t Fred request that we move this discussion to a new thread like two pages ago?

[Perturbed Member]

Vitamin-D is underrated IMO. I’ve been taking 2000-5000IU of D3 per day since 2013 for deficiency (and seasonal depression), and though I can’t prove it quantitatively, I believe it’s greatly improved my overall health. Also, I was unable to fully recover from my substance abuse issues until I started supplementing with it. Could be placebo effect or whatever, maybe my improved health is partially or completely a result of the successful rehabilitation, but overall this is my subjective take on it.

 

Agreed. The research seems to show that Vitamin D is more important than it is given credit for. I too was deficient in it, at about 9 ng/ml many years ago. I took upwards of 10,000 IU D3/day for a while until I got up to 60ng/ml and then took 3000-4000 IU per day to maintain. I do think I've had better health subjectively but I of course can't prove a causal relationship. 

Vitamin D is important, but I think trying to rely on the sun as your main source of it is silly and unrealistic for the vast majority of people who live a modern lifestyle. I think people should get tested and supplement with D3.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If the models are similar tomorrow I think we will see the NWS put up watches for the PDX Metro, N. Coast Range, Lower Columbia Valley, and Cascades/Foothills. Right now I think the North Coast Range and Lower Columbia Valley could really score. Here I think 3-5" is a solid bet. GFS shows a switch over to snow here around 8-11pm Friday evening. 

[TT-SEA]

Agreed. The research seems to show that Vitamin D is more important than it is given credit for. I too was deficient in it, at about 9 ng/ml many years ago. I took upwards of 10,000 IU D3/day for a while until I got up to 60ng/ml and then took 3000-4000 IU per day to maintain. I do think I've had better health subjectively but I of course can't prove a causal relationship. 

Vitamin D is important, but I think trying to rely on the sun as your main source of it is silly and unrealistic for the vast majority of people who live a modern lifestyle. I think people should get tested and supplement with D3.

 

Unfortunately... that is the same to nature as not eating and fruits or vegetables and thinking a vitamin supplement has you covered.   It helps but its not the same.

[TT-SEA]

Some needs to start a virus topic on the main forum here... this going to be a huge part of the conversation for the next couple months.

[GHweatherChris]

Some needs to start a virus topic on the main forum here... this going to be a huge part of the conversation for the next couple months.

Anyone can start a topic on the forum, have at it buckaroo.

[TT-SEA]

Anyone can start a topic on the forum, have at it buckaroo.

 

Done.

[Deweydog]

The snow talk has certainly gone viral!

[Perturbed Member]

Unfortunately... that is the same to nature as not eating and fruits or vegetables and thinking a vitamin supplement has you covered.   It helps but its not the same.

 

Of course vitamin supplements do not replace real food. Real food contains a lot more than just micronutrients. With regards to Vitamin D, I'm not aware of any data or studies that suggests supplemented D3 cannot replace naturally produced D3. All evidence seems to indicate they are physiologically identical and I think it makes sense to treat it as such until there is evidence showing otherwise. 

 

Trips to Hawaii are awesome but not a practical or financially sensible way to get vitamin D for most people . I feel great when I vacation there too, but I don't attribute that to a special vitamin D that is different from what I supplement with. It is more likely to be from other factors such as not having work and other daily sources of stress. 

 

Edit: Will move further discussion to the new thread.

[Jesse]

[FroYoBro]

Nice to see the Euro trend closer to the GFS.

 

I’m starting to have hope that this will be my biggest event of the winter. It will only take half an inch!

[Gradient Keeper]

Snow!

[Timmy]

[Jesse]

How the pattern progresses next week should be interesting to follow. Lots of uncertainty with that ULL spinning over California. Could easily end up on the cool and wet side if it ends up a little further north than progged.

[Perturbed Member]

Nice to see the Euro trend closer to the GFS.

 

I’m starting to have hope that this will be my biggest event of the winter. It will only take half an inch!

 

Yeah it is still super marginal but at least has some credibility.

 

-10C 850mb temps in the gorge, surface temps there in the mid 20s and an east wind along with healthy precip rates from an ideally positioned low. Hopefully that frontogenesis being advertised actually pans out. I'll take some Jan 10 2017 style frontogenesis and convection please  . Even though that was a different setup.

 

[Deweydog]

How the pattern progresses next week should be interesting to follow. Lots of uncertainty with that ULL spinning over California. Could easily end up on the cool and wet side if it ends up a little further north than progged.

D**n!

 

https://www.usbr.gov/projects/index.php?id=29

[Jesse]

d**n!

 

https://www.usbr.gov/projects/index.php?id=29

 

:-/

[Jesse]

Yeah it is still super marginal but at least has some credibility.

 

-10C 850mb temps in the gorge, surface temps there in the mid 20s and an east wind along with healthy precip rates from an ideally positioned low. Hopefully that frontogenesis being advertised actually pans out. I'll take some Jan 10 2017 style frontogenesis and convection please  . Even though that was a different setup.

 

 

Starting to look like a pretty fun event to track even if we ultimately don't end up with anything. Some interesting dynamics potentially at play, especially for so late in the season.

[El_Nina]

Starting to look like a pretty fun event to track even if we ultimately don't end up with anything.

:-/

[Jesse]

:-/

 

That's half the fun of this weather stuff, the uncertainty. Oh and hitting a phat dab right as it starts to puke half dollar sized flakes at 3am.

[El_Nina]

That's half the fun of this weather stuff, the uncertainty. Oh and hitting a phat dab right as it starts to puke half dollar sized flakes at 3am.

I run so it's okay.

[Perturbed Member]

Starting to look like a pretty fun event to track even if we ultimately don't end up with anything. Some interesting dynamics potentially at play, especially for so late in the season.

 

Yep and if we do get anything it will be especially special given how late it is. I had already written the winter off so anything here is a win. I might drive a little west into the coast range to get my fix if I have to since I think the odds for a few inches look good there.

[BLI snowman]

NAM is still noticeably further north and then west with the low. Good dynamics on the Olympic Peninsula and Hood Canal but not much anywhere else.

[Omegaraptor]

Yep and if we do get anything it will be especially special given how late it is. I had already written the winter off so anything here is a win. I might drive a little west into the coast range to get my fix if I have to since I think the odds for a few inches look good there.

Could be some snow at the top of the West Hills.

[Phil]

Vitamin-D is underrated IMO. I’ve been taking 2000-5000IU of D3 per day since 2013 for deficiency (and seasonal depression), and though I can’t prove it quantitatively, I believe it’s greatly improved my overall health. Also, I was unable to fully recover from my substance abuse issues until I started supplementing with it. Could be placebo effect or whatever, maybe my improved health is partially or completely a result of the successful rehabilitation, but overall this is my subjective take on it.

I love the outdoors/hate the indoors, man. I typically spend several hours per day outside, though during the summer it was only because I had to work outside..we’ll see what happens this year since I’ve resigned from that job, lol.

 

But yeah, I always have my window open except for the dead of winter and the dog days of summer. Like, anytime I’m there I need it open. My gf and I get into drawn out arguments over it. I’ll never understand people that need the indoor temp within the same 2-3*F range. It’s weird.

[Esquimalt]

NAM is still noticeably further north and then west with the low. Good dynamics on the Olympic Peninsula and Hood Canal but not much anywhere else.

Yeah its the only one still showing awesome amounts here.  NAM 3km has me at 5 inches.