March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Now is never a good time to be in the bullseye. Things will probably shift before all is said and done.

Haha yeah if your in the bullseye a few days before that’s almost never a good sign unfortunately. We’ve all had this happen to us over the years.

[Phil]

Now is never a good time to be in the bullseye. Things will probably shift before all is said and done.

This. So many times I’ve been modeled in a deform band bullseye more than 48hrs out and at the last minute the jackpot moves 50-75 miles NW. Has to be within 24hrs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low of 31 this morning. NWS going with lows Sunday night of 20-25 in the N. Oregon Foothills. Record low at Silver Falls Monday morning is 21, could be close. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gfs is on its own compared to cmc icon and rgem with the depth of the low pressure. Gfs is much weaker.. Euro will be interesting. 

[BLI snowman]

NAM and GFS are pretty different.

[FroYoBro]

The GFS has been pretty adamant that the Portland area will be in the sweet spot for wet snow.

 

Like others have said, we are totally screwed.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

NAM and GFS are pretty different.

Strength is a big difference. 

[Jesse]

Gfs is on its own compared to cmc icon and rgem with the depth of the low pressure. Gfs is much weaker.. Euro will be interesting.

That low will end up stronger and further north than currently forecast. At least that’s the case 9 times out of 10.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That low will end up stronger and further north than currently forecast. At least that’s the case 9 times out of 10.

I can see this giving most places from woodburn north to Everett a decent chance of spotty snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That low will end up stronger and further north than currently forecast. At least that’s the case 9 times out of 10.

 

This is a common myth perpetuated on this forum. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS looking more Tim-friendly in the mid-range. 

[ShawniganLake]

This is a common myth perpetuated on this forum.

“If” it’s stronger it’ll probably be further north.

[TT-SEA]

GFS looking more Tim-friendly in the mid-range. 

 

 

Friendly for everyone in WA right now... given that warmer weather and UV rays are a benefit during a virus pandemic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Friendly for everyone in WA right now... given that warmer weather and UV rays are a benefit during a virus pandemic.

 

Typical narcissistic post. Assuming what you want is best for everyone! 

[Jesse]

This is a common myth perpetuated on this forum.

Time to BUST it.

[Jesse]

Are we seriously going to start taking the people who want rain are pro-virus angle here? Good lord. Just when you think we’ve hit the basement.

[Jesse]

12z GFS has some nice rainfall at times for Northern California. Sierra snow.

[OysterPrintout]

SO if there is SUN then Tim LIVES...BUT if there is snow thennnnnn NO DONT BAN ME FRED

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WRF goes a little crazy. Shows about 6-8" up here. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could end up fairly similar to the March 2006 event. 

[Jesse]

Ensembles hint that after waiting for about another week for the next storm after Friday/Saturday we could slip into a slightly wetter pattern around the equinox.

[Jesse]

I saw a post today that parts of the California Northwest coast that average 120" of rain a year are currently running a 90" rainfall deficit. This years drought is off the charts in some parts of California. 

 

That's ridiculous. We were just down in Crescent City and Arcata toward the end of February and I didn't realize how dry it had been down there.

 

Fortunately models seem to be trying to bring in a pattern that gives you guys at least a little precip down there, but it would take a lot to make up such a staggering defecit. All you can really hope for at this point is just not being quite as far below average.

[Omegaraptor]

Alaska vortex looks to be gone for good on GFS as the final warming begins.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF coming in a little farther south with the low on Friday... less precip and less snow for the Seattle area.

[Jesse]

Looks like the Euro shows the Portland area doing pretty well.

 

Low comes onshore around Lincoln City at 06z Saturday.

[TT-SEA]

Snow through Saturday morning...

 

[Prairiedog]

I go to a private college-prep high school, and I’ve been told that colleges (hopefully) take that into account.

My wife teaches at a private college prep hs near Portland., La Salle.    If the unfortunate happens and schools shut down , all the students have iPads and will be able to work at home.  How are you all set up for on-line school?  It's worked pretty well for snow days on the rare times that has happened. 

[TT-SEA]

Updated map through noon on Saturday... snowing in the Portland area on Saturday morning.   Dry in the Seattle area after Friday evening.

 

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Saturday... pretty crazy for Portland and also up north.

 

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Sunday... there is not much precip that day even in Portland so I believe it assumes snow cover.

 

[BLI snowman]

High temps on Saturday... pretty crazy for Portland and also up north.

 

Extremely thin margin for error. But the Euro, GFS, and CMC all agree on good frontogenesis banding on the NE side of the low. Likely will be a narrow corridor with a few inches somewhere in the lowlands.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow for the entire event... through Monday morning.

 

[Perturbed Member]

Our president... in his infinite wisdom... said we need warmer weather and this will go away.   

 

But it is just an unavoidable biological fact that sunlight and natural vitamin D strengthens our immune system and UV rays destroy the virus.   Of course rain is also life-giving.    Go figure!   

 

There are plenty of viruses and illnesses that don't really improve with warmer weather or are more endemic in warm climates. Just yesterday Dr. Michael Osterholm from the CDC was saying that we don't have enough information to answer whether COVID-19 will improve with warmer weather so lets not make unsubstantiated claims about that. 

 

About vitamin D, there is some evidence in the medical literature that healthy vitamin D levels improve resistance to upper respiratory infections. There are plenty of other benefits too. However it is pretty silly to think the sun will make a dramatic difference with this given the nature of modern lifestyles. We can make vitamin D at a fairly impressive rate if we are shirtless or mostly naked and outside when the sun is high in the sky. The needle will move much less in reality given that most people these days spend so much time indoors and are rarely walking around with lots of skin exposed. It shouldn't be a surprise then that the rates of vitamin D deficiency are really high in many industrialized countries, even at the equator. Of course your rate of cholecalciferol synthesis is even lower if you have a darker skin color. 

 

The most practical solution that I've found for this is just going to the store and picking up some cheap Vitamin D3 and taking about 3000-4000 IU per day. Healthy vitamin d levels year around and without having to irradiate myself in the sun.

[Requiem]

My wife teaches at a private college prep hs near Portland., La Salle. If the unfortunate happens and schools shut down , all the students have iPads and will be able to work at home. How are you all set up for on-line school? It's worked pretty well for snow days on the rare times that has happened.

We don’t have school-sanctioned iPads, but Google Classroom sets us up for at least a couple days of digital learning. I’m not sure how two weeks of that would look— the most school we’ve ever missed due to something other than a government holiday (or teacher planning day) was back in Jan 2017 and we didn’t do anything those few days.

[MossMan]

High temps on Saturday... pretty crazy for Portland and also up north.

 

My area is the hot spot. Typical for backdoor events.

[Requiem]

There’s apparently a case of COVID-19 being treated very close to my house....

 

Anyways I’m almost tempted to get tested if I don’t get better within the next few days.

[Prairiedog]

There are plenty of viruses and illnesses that don't really improve with warmer weather or are more endemic in warm climates. Just yesterday Dr. Michael Osterholm from the CDC was saying that we don't have enough information to answer whether COVID-19 will improve with warmer weather so lets not make unsubstantiated claims about that. 

 

About vitamin D, there is some evidence in the medical literature that healthy vitamin D levels improve resistance to upper respiratory infections. There are plenty of other benefits too. However it is pretty silly to think the sun will make a dramatic difference with this given the nature of modern lifestyles. We can make vitamin D at a fairly impressive rate if we are shirtless or mostly naked and outside when the sun is high in the sky. The needle will move much less in reality given that most people these days spend so much time indoors and are rarely walking around with lots of skin exposed. It shouldn't be a surprise then that the rates of vitamin D deficiency are really high in many industrialized countries, even at the equator. Of course your rate of cholecalciferol synthesis is even lower if you have a darker skin color. 

 

The most practical solution that I've found for this is just going to the store and picking up some cheap Vitamin D3 and taking about 3000-4000 IU per day. Healthy vitamin d levels year around and without having to irradiate myself in the sun.

Having iPads is a double edge sword as it opens up other cans of worms but it it an option.  It has worked well for snow days and I think it would probably work well for any prolonged shutdowns.  La Salle has a lot of kids that travel over seas for a lot of reasons and with Spring Break coming up some will be going.  Not sure how good of an idea that is right now.  What I find more concerning are the number of kids heading out to Disneyland.  Now,  that looks to be a potentially big problem! 

 

[jakerepp]

Total snow for the entire event... through Monday morning.

 

Wow, this is impressive. 

Small shift north and I'm in business. Not expecting anything. Don't really even care that much at this point, so I'll root for Portland to score!

[TT-SEA]

Wow, this is impressive. 

Small shift north and I'm in business. Not expecting anything. Don't really even care that much at this point, so I'll root for Portland to score!

 

That is a southward shift from the 00Z and 06Z runs though.

[Perturbed Member]

NAM and GFS are pretty different.

 

The 12z ICON actually does the same thing the NAM does with the low pulling west. Pretty unusual looking progression IMO. Will assume they are both on crack for now.