March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Nice day!

Really is a nice day... surreal feeling with everything shutting down while the sun is shining and nature coming to life. Quite the juxtaposition.

[GHweatherChris]

Really is a nice day... surreal feeling with everything shutting down while the sun is shining and nature coming to life. Quite the juxtaposition.

Indeed, still normal out this way but I expect the hammer to drop tomorrow on closures.

 

But I did shoot a 38 early this afternoon under mostly sunny skies and 53 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per the 18Z ECMWF:

 

[GHweatherChris]

I think many areas will see snow tomorrow morning, regardless of what models are showing right now. (HRRR hints at it)

[BLI snowman]

2-3" is looking good for higher areas away from the water in the Portland metro. Timing is favorable with the heaviest rates coming from 4am-11am.

[Requiem]

2-3" is looking good for higher areas away from the water in the Portland metro. Timing is favorable with the heaviest rates coming from 4am-11am.

 

Would you say 2-3" could be possible for my area? (1000 ft in the West Hills close to Downtown Portland)? Or do you think there will be a very defined east/west or north/south gradient?

[umadbro]

Would you say 2-3" could be possible for my area? (1000 ft in the West Hills close to Downtown Portland)? Or do you think there will be a very defined east/west or north/south gradient?

Tons of maps have been shared. look at them.

 

If you live in the west hills at 1000 feet. You're gonna do just fine assuming the models are correct.

[Perturbed Member]

Would you say 2-3" could be possible for my area? (1000 ft in the West Hills close to Downtown Portland)? Or do you think there will be a very defined east/west or north/south gradient?

 

Look at RGEM, GEM, GFS, EURO, UKMET, NAM 3KM and even the crappy ICON. Every single model is showing a few inches for areas with some elevation and we are under 48 hrs out. You're in good shape IMO. 2-4 inches is a solid bet. 

 

Trace to 2 inch for the rest of the metro.  Among the low elevation areas, would expect amounts on the higher end for the places along the coast range from cold air damming and upsloping east winds. 

[Deweydog]

Still no forecast thread....

[Perturbed Member]

Still no forecast thread....

 

What are your thoughts? Better agreement with the models since your last "forecast". Surely you have something new to say.

[FroYoBro]

Still no forecast thread....

I just made a really good one.

[Deweydog]

What are your thoughts? Better agreement with the models since your last "forecast". Surely you have something new to say.

Surely a lot of people will “see” snow. Accumulations are going be very dependent on exact timing and intensity. Upslope spots are gonna be in the best shape for that.

[BLI snowman]

Would you say 2-3" could be possible for my area? (1000 ft in the West Hills close to Downtown Portland)? Or do you think there will be a very defined east/west or north/south gradient?

 

You'll do real good.

[Deweydog]

[Front Ranger]

Low solar. 

 

You can delay it, but it will not be denied.

[Prairiedog]

I think one reason the rivers are so low is the generally cool weather has the snow still locked up  in the highlands, which is a good thing. But obviously the lack of normal rainfall at this time of year is also playing a role. Praying for a snowier pattern in the mountains late March into April.

This time of year (mostly in April) we get snow coming off the mid to high elevations but this Feb-Mar there has been only small bounces in the rivre's (Clackamas and Sandy) due to rain and very little snow in the 2-4K elevations.  It's been a while since we've had more than .5" for the week.    The coastal streams like the Trask and Wilson have also been on the low side but not as bad as the inland streams.  Snow runoff always is a good thing and that will come later.  In the meantime, we need good ol' rain in the watershed.  With the limited moisture coming in this weekend, the Sandy will barely bounce (thats because precip will fall as snow in the hills)

I prefer the Sandy to be between 10' and 11'.  I can squeak by at 9.5'

I can't run my sled on the Clackamas below about 12.6".  I can bank fish it down to about 11.8, barely.  It's very fishable up to 14'. 

I prefer the Sandy, though and I need rain up in them there hills!

 

[umadbro]

This time of year (mostly in April) we get snow coming off the mid to high elevations but this Feb-Mar there has been only small bounces in the rivre's (Clackamas and Sandy) due to rain and very little snow in the 2-4K elevations. It's been a while since we've had more than .5" for the week. The coastal streams like the Trask and Wilson have also been on the low side but not as bad as the inland streams. Snow runoff always is a good thing and that will come later. In the meantime, we need good ol' rain in the watershed. With the limited moisture coming in this weekend, the Sandy will barely bounce (thats because precip will fall as snow in the hills)

I prefer the Sandy to be between 10' and 11'. I can squeak by at 9.5'

I can't run my sled on the Clackamas below about 12.6". I can bank fish it down to about 11.8, barely. It's very fishable up to 14'.

I prefer the Sandy, though and I need rain up in them there hills!

 

I drove along the Clackamas today. Pretty far upriver and was surprised at how low it was. I was debating doing the Sandy on Saturday but 35 degrees with wet snow falling all day doesn't sound like fun to be out in.

[Gradient Keeper]

My yard is mud free. It's actually kind of crispy. Btw, can we cancel the rest of 2020 plz.

Shouldn't that say "Put a Lime in it?"

[Gradient Keeper]

I drove along the Clackamas today. Pretty far upriver and was surprised at how low it was. I was debating doing the Sandy on Saturday but 35 degrees with wet snow falling all day doesn't sound like fun to be out in.

Well up past North Fork? I was up at Harriet Lake last Monday and the river at that time was still a bit high.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm near 290' near West Gresham. I should see at least a dusting or so. I'd think. C'MON!!!!

[umadbro]

Well up past North Fork? I was up at Harriet Lake last Monday and the river at that time was still a bit high.

Not that high. Close to Barton. South of it.

[Gradient Keeper]

Not that high. Close to Barton. South of it.

Ah, alright. That's a part of the Clackamas I'm rarely ever by.

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! or 90 degrees, SE flow aloft, and nocturnal T-Storms!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Had some light hail showers in Victoria this morning. It'll be interesting to see how this goes, feels like it's been awhile since we've seen anything this cold at the upper levels at this time of year. Then again, with sun and no snow cover even a February blast can end up only slightly below normal, the low level cold has a lot to overcome.

[Gradient Keeper]

Latest IR imagery. Hard to believe it's Mid-March.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

I am getting withdrawal symptoms not able to post in either of my Facebook weather groups. By the way, anyone who is in my PDX WX Analysis group, if you could pass along this message I would appreciate it.

 

"Good job everyone holding down the fort keeping the group active and interesting. I appreciate it. I can still read comments and messages I wish I could post right now with the possibility of snow Saturday morning. It's crazy that we're even talking about this potential at all. Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!"

[GHweatherChris]

Latest IR imagery. Hard to believe it's Mid-March.

 

 

It's gonna overachieve.

[GHweatherChris]

I am getting withdrawal symptoms not able to post in either of my Facebook weather groups. By the way, anyone who is in my PDX WX Analysis group, if you could pass along this message I would appreciate it.

 

"Good job everyone holding down the fort keeping the group active and interesting. I appreciate it. I can still read comments and messages I wish I could post right now with the possibility of snow Saturday morning. It's crazy that we're even talking about this potential at all. Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!"

Done

[Phil]

I am getting withdrawal symptoms not able to post in either of my Facebook weather groups. By the way, anyone who is in my PDX WX Analysis group, if you could pass along this message I would appreciate it.

 

"Good job everyone holding down the fort keeping the group active and interesting. I appreciate it. I can still read comments and messages I wish I could post right now with the possibility of snow Saturday morning. It's crazy that we're even talking about this potential at all. Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!"

Lose a bet?

[Gradient Keeper]

It's gonna overachieve.

It might. It looks very healthy right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

 

Done

Awesome. Thanks, I appreciate it.

 

Lose a bet?

A bet? Nope. Facebook flagged me a bunch of times for 'spam' and well my account was locked down for 30 days. 22 days to go! Almost as bad as a pizza shortage.
 

[Perturbed Member]

00z GFS still onboard

 

[Requiem]

00z GFS still onboard

 

 

Brought back some more intense snow as well. I think hills may get a sloppy half inch or so, I'm confident.

[Perturbed Member]

Brought back some more intense snow as well. I think hills may get a sloppy half inch or so, I'm confident.

 

Washington county, the snowiest climate in the entire PNW lowlands

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS still onboard

 

Looks real promising and that PDX-DLS of -8mb is just unheard of for March. Wow. Okay. C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Brought back some more intense snow as well. I think hills may get a sloppy half inch or so, I'm confident.

I'd go with 2" easily for the hills potentially 6".

[Requiem]

Mark is still saying it'll likely be conversational snow, but this is exactly what he did say during the March 2012 event...

[MossMan]

Currently 36 degrees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

33 here. 

[Perturbed Member]

The best hope for snow in PDX comes from the NWS completely downplaying this:

 

Rain with this front will reach the coast late Friday morning then
inland in the afternoon. This is a cold system and snow levels will
rapidly lower down to near 2000 feet by Friday evening. Models
indicate that the front will move inland Friday evening. Then much
colder air moves inland Friday night and Saturday as the surface low
lingers near the region, and snow levels are expected to be around
1500 feet. Instability increases Saturday afternoon and night as the
cold pool aloft moves over the region. This may support heavier
showers that will bring the colder air aloft closer to the surface,
and the best chance of snow levels lowering below 1000 feet. Even the
lowest elevations could see snow mixing in with rain Saturday evening
and night.

 

 Really odd to me that they are focusing on Saturday PM as the best shot for low elevation snow. Every single model shows the heaviest precip late Friday night into Saturday AM and that is when the best chance for snow is. 

[Front Ranger]

Where's the Wiz?