March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

12z Euro looks pretty splitty overall. At least CA might finally start to catch up on rainfall.

[TT-SEA]

A long string of sunny, warm days per the 12Z ECMWF beginning Monday... most days will probably be close to 60 or warmer in the Seattle area.

 

As of now it shows this continuing right through next weekend.    But the pattern has been cold weekends and nice work weeks lately so we will see.

 

If the 12Z ECMWF is right... some places will be close to 70 by next weekend.

[Front Ranger]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still looking at about 2-5" up here Friday night/Saturday AM. I cannot see anywhere below 500' getting more than a sloppy 1/2" just too warm.

[TacomaWaWx]

A long string of sunny, warm days per the 12Z ECMWF beginning Monday... most days will probably be close to 60 or warmer in the Seattle area.

 

As of now it shows this continuing right through next weekend.    But the pattern has been cold weekends and nice work weeks lately so we will see.

 

If the 12Z ECMWF is right... some places will be close to 70 by next weekend.

Kind of interesting how we could go from upper 30s to around 40 for highs and then possibly into the upper 60s a week later. Last winter had a pretty dynamic changing of the seasons as well....38 for a high temp on 3/8 and then up to 70 10 days later.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kind of interesting how we could go from upper 30s to around 40 for highs and then possibly into the upper 60s a week later. Last winter had a pretty dynamic changing of the seasons as well....38 for a high temp on 3/8 and then up to 70 10 days later.

 

In 2011 the place I used to live in Oklahoma set an all-time record low of -28 on February 10th. By the 18th they had highs in the mid-80s with lows in the 60s!

[Jesse]

WaterPNormWRCC-NW.png

Shockingly wet!

[TT-SEA]

Nobody said that the rainy season as a whole has been shockingly wet.  

 

But it has been wetter than normal for most of western WA.    The WRCC map is just wrong for the area between Seattle and Olympia.. for reasons stated before.  Even OLM is still wetter than normal for the rainy season.  Although that WRCC map does feed the drought narrative for some on here... its bad data up here but it looks scary!  

 

Oregon is a different story... genuinely dry there.  

 

Also worth noting that the driest weather in western WA was back in October and November and that is pretty meaningless now given how wet its been since mid-December.

[umadbro]

Man, you two have been beating the same topic to death for years now.

[Deweydog]

First world problems.

[TT-SEA]

Man, you two have been beating the same topic to death for years now.

 

 

It just pisses Jesse off that the same part of the "region" continues to be wetter than normal.     I have tried to break it down better lately because regional statements often don't fit.    This year is another good example.   I have also added signature in my footer stating this.

 

But I guess its easier for him to just mock the people that live in the wetter than normal areas rather than look at the actual data.     

[Front Ranger]

Nobody said that the rainy season as a whole has been shockingly wet.  

 

But it has been wetter than normal for most of western WA.    The WRCC map is just wrong for the area between Seattle and Olympia.. for reasons stated before.  Even OLM is still wetter than normal for the rainy season.  Although that WRCC map does feed the drought narrative for some on here... its bad data up here but it looks scary!  

 

Oregon is a different story... genuinely dry there.  

 

Also worth noting that the driest weather in western WA was back in October and November and that is pretty meaningless now given how wet its been since mid-December.

 

We know the map is not totally accurate in every area. Big picture, it's fairly close.

 

Also, to the bolded: looking like October, November, and now March will end up pretty dry. That's half the rainy season. 

 

Doesn't make any sense to claim it's meaningless, given that it's all part of the water year.

[ShawniganLake]

Wasn’t that long ago when our Canadian friends were looking at 8+ inches for this “event”.

Euro and GEM showed over 20” here a few days ago.

[TT-SEA]

We know the map is not totally accurate in every area. Big picture, it's fairly close.

 

Also, to the bolded: looking like October, November, and now March will end up pretty dry. That's half the rainy season.

 

Doesn't make any sense to claim it's meaningless, given that it's all part of the water year.

Not meaningless from a stat perspective. But from a water supply perspective it is now.

[ShawniganLake]

Raindrops just tested positive on the splat test here. 40F.

[Deweydog]

[ShawniganLake]

Local forecasts from Environment Canada indicates an inch or so of snow here tomorrow morning (2-4cm)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ensembles were decent. 

[Requiem]

So many models look great and of course EURO comes in with absolutely zilch— story of Portland weather right there.

[TT-SEA]

15-day precip anomaly per the 12Z EPS.   Nature is finally flipping the script along the West Coast with CA wetter than normal and WA drier than normal.

 

As usual... Oregon follows CA when its dry there and then WA when its dry there.    Ridiculous.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Snow is coming! ... WOW

[Jesse]

Nice day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like everyone in the WV was below freezing this morning. 

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like the nam finally caved to the other models on big snow potential here. I’d actually given up on it the other day. Put my snowblower away for the season on Tuesday.

[Esquimalt]

Looks like the nam finally caved to the other models on big snow potential here. I’d actually given up on it the other day. Put my snowblower away for the season on Tuesday.

Yeah just saw that.  Really sad because it was a great setup there for a couple of days

[seattleweatherguy]

Snow is coming! ... WOW

Congrats! We will get nothing here but chilly temps

[El_Nina]

Despite it looking like spring out there it is pretty chilly. Feels continental.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Rooting for you PDXers.  You've been waiting.  Yeah it'll be March slop but it's better than nothing.

[Gradient Keeper]

Congrats! We will get nothing here but chilly temps

I'm not sure if I'll see any, but someone, somewhere is definitely going to see snow!

[Requiem]

ICON caved— every model on board for some flurries. Can’t believe EURO decided to just flop like that while every other model improved.

[Deweydog]

Flurries!

 

Furies?

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS starting to back off a little bit on that frontogenesis to the NE of the low. Still fairly good result but much less precip now. 

 

[Requiem]

18z GFS starting to back off a little bit on that frontogenesis to the NE of the low. Still fairly good result but much less precip now.

 

That’s definitely more realistic. EURO is concerning though.

[Esquimalt]

ICON caved— every model on board for some flurries. Can’t believe EURO decided to just flop like that while every other model improved.

Check the RGEM if you want a treat. 

[Perturbed Member]

That’s definitely more realistic. EURO is concerning though.

It may be realistic at your elevation, but I do think even an inch would be considered quite successful at the lowest elevations. I think 1-3 inches looks like a reasonable bet for you and maybe non accumulating snow or a trace is the most likely outcome for the rest. 

 

I'm not complaining given the time of year and how low our bar is. 

[Gradient Keeper]

As my Dad who hated the East wind and Cold would always say, "We are one day closer to Spring!" Rest in peace, Pops.

 

The sun is out. A Robin is currently waltzing through the front yard trying to detect worms. I'm breathing. My family is healthy. My Cat's asleep. My knee is just tolerable enough to allow me to walk. No complaints!

 

Fish Sticks and baked potato for dinner. No complaints.

[Perturbed Member]

Check the RGEM if you want a treat. 

 

Yeah the GEM and RGEM are the most aggressive with snow here now but I expect they will back off on the precip amounts in the same way the Euro and GFS have now. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

15-day precip anomaly per the 12Z EPS.   Nature is finally flipping the script along the West Coast with CA wetter than normal and WA drier than normal.

 

As usual... Oregon follows CA when its dry there and then WA when its dry there.    Ridiculous.

 

Back to the stupid Rex Block

[Dave]

My yard is mud free. It's actually kind of crispy. Btw, can we cancel the rest of 2020 plz.

[GHweatherChris]

Nice day!