Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

There’s also this one (MJO component isolated) which has been remarkably accurate.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

Slide your fingers on the sides of the image to run through the progression. Goes out to mid-August.

[TT-SEA]

38 minutes ago, Phil said:

Slide your fingers on the sides of the image to run through the progression. Goes out to mid-August.

Little different look for early July... sort of looks like what we had last year.  

 

[MossMan]

54 minutes ago, Phil said:

2002 analog is screaming at me now. That was the only other year we had this kind of smoke coming from E-Canada. And it just so happened to be coming off a 3+ year -ENSO, near solar max. Oh, and it’s the last time we had a drought like this going into an El Niño, as well.

Look at this map from July 2002 and you’d think it was from today.

This would have been a completely sunny and bright day otherwise! Definitely had stickage as well! 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Where is the big cutoff low over California?

[MossMan]

36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Little different look for early July... sort of looks like what we had last year.  

 

I just had another flashback to my 1985 self trying to watch a scrambled Cinemax. 

[Phishy Wx]

Mt. St Helens racketing up the humor again

 

https://twitter.com/MtStHelensWA/status/1666081472963563520?s=20

 

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

2002 analog is screaming at me now. That was the only other year we had this kind of smoke coming from E-Canada. And it just so happened to be coming off a 3+ year -ENSO, near solar max. Oh, and it’s the last time we had a drought like this going into an El Niño, as well.

Look at this map from July 2002 and you’d think it was from today.

I lived in NH at the time in summer of 2002 and it was the first time in my life I experienced air quality issue from wildfires having grown up in the Carolinas 

[Anti Marine Layer]

What if the big Canadian ridge were centered directly over the PNW? You could get 4 consecutive weeks or more of 100 or higher in Portland. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I just had another flashback to my 1985 self trying to watch a scrambled Cinemax. 

It was Spectrum for us in Minnesota.  Every once in awhile you would get breaks in the scrambling... made it so worth sitting there for 3 hours getting dizzy from the patterns on the screen.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 91/50 day here. 4th 90+ of the season at this location (we had 88’s or 89’s on a few days back in mid May when PDX did it). Today was the 6th 90+ in this very young warm season there.

 

[TT-SEA]

Only 1 day below 70 at SEA on the 00Z GFS (no days below 70 on the 00Z GEFS).   Also the 00Z ECMWF is not digging that trough next week as much as previous runs showed.  ECMWF just shows a weak marine intrusion on Tuesday morning and then the marine layer is scoured out again and it's back to sunny.  This dry spell is becoming quite noteworthy and unusual for so early in the season.   Picked up right where we left off last fall.   

[Doinko]

17 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a 91/50 day here. 4th 90+ of the season at this location (we had 88’s or 89’s on a few days back in mid May when PDX did it). Today was the 6th 90+ in this very young warm season there.

 

We also managed 90 in late April here which was crazy, hopefully we won't see too many more later this summer

[NWbyNW]

10-day forecast looks good for Everett.  Wish we had some rain... Nothing too hot expect for Wednesday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

In terms of a long dry spell from mid-May through mid-June with a developing Nino... 2009 is a pretty good match for what we have seen recently.    SEA went just about 1 month with no rain at all from 5/19 through 6/18 in 2009 which is pretty rare at this time of year.   Then we had a 10-day stretch of cooler weather and occasional rain.    But early July was hot again... 87 on the 4th that year.

2009, pleasant in late July that year 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Milder low of 59 so far this morning. Looks like the first 60+ morning of the month at PDX.

00z Euro failed to show really any sort of meaningful cool down. Looks like the operational is an outlier for now in that regard, but wouldn’t surprise me to see it lead the way.

[TT-SEA]

The second half of the month could end up much cooler and cloudier... but so far this June is reminding of 2015 in terms of sunshine and consistent warmth. 

[YahRaEl]

[MossMan]

The app is still calling for rain on Friday! Also today is the warmest day for the foreseeable future. 

[TacomaWx]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The app is still calling for rain on Friday! Also today is the warmest day for the foreseeable future. 

Models have been hinting at some light rain north of Seattle this weekend but not nearly enough. 

[TacomaWx]

Didn’t make it to 80 here yesterday…78/51 temp spread. Low of 51 this morning but we should hit the 80s pretty easily this afternoon. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Models have been hinting at some light rain north of Seattle this weekend but not nearly enough. 

I am pretty skeptical... ECMWF has been trending away from rain on the west side on Friday.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am pretty skeptical... ECMWF has been trending away from rain on the west side on Friday.

Not surprising at all. Have been hoping this summer might end up like the 2019 warm season when we flipped to cooler wetter weather in mid summer but so far there’s no sign of that happening yet. You’re probably right about getting a cooler cloudier pattern at some point this month or in early July though. 

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Models have been hinting at some light rain north of Seattle this weekend but not nearly enough. 

I will take even 5 minutes of drizzle…Anything! 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Marine layer in Eugene. 

[Deweydog]

HCS???

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

HCS???

???

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Only 1 day below 70 at SEA on the 00Z GFS (no days below 70 on the 00Z GEFS).   Also the 00Z ECMWF is not digging that trough next week as much as previous runs showed.  ECMWF just shows a weak marine intrusion on Tuesday morning and then the marine layer is scoured out again and it's back to sunny.  This dry spell is becoming quite noteworthy and unusual for so early in the season.   Picked up right where we left off last fall.   

Since I have lived here, once we get in this pattern it doesn’t rain again until September. I know y’all keep sharing stories of the past with summer rain, but I don’t see it happening

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

HCS???

It’s coming!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Air quality is definitely hazy and degraded this morning, probably from the Cameron Bluffs Fire that has closed Highway 4 on the Vancouver Island. And so smoke season begins in early June this year.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

19 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I will take even 5 minutes of drizzle…Anything! 

About 5 minutes of drizzle is basically all I am expecting.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

With troughing all the way down through the the SW... that might actually result in very pleasant weather up here.   Troughing across the North Pacific and into the PNW with ridging in CA is usually what brings us our wettest and gloomiest summer patterns.   

Promises, promises.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Since I have lived here, once we get in this pattern it doesn’t rain again until September. I know y’all keep sharing stories of the past with summer rain, but I don’t see it happening

I can tell you even the crazy hot summer of 2015 did have some meaningful rain events in July and August.    In fact I think August 2015 is in the top 5 wettest at SEA even though the majority of the month was hot and sunny.   There were 3 separate significant rain events in the Seattle area that month.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ICON is much more optimistic about rain on Friday.

 

[Phil]

This is just wrong.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Milder low of 59 so far this morning. Looks like the first 60+ morning of the month at PDX.

00z Euro failed to show really any sort of meaningful cool down. Looks like the operational is an outlier for now in that regard, but wouldn’t surprise me to see it lead the way.

I suspect that was a one-off outlier, but pattern changes are difficult to predict/model, so

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I can tell you even the crazy hot summer of 2015 did have some meaningful rain events in July and August.    In fact I think August 2015 is in the top 5 wettest at SEA even though the majority of the month was hot and sunny.   There were 3 separate significant rain events in the Seattle area that month.  

But what is top 5 wet for August? 6 raindrops?

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is just wrong.

You don't like the humidity on the East Coast, so now you get to experience West Coast style weather.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ICON is much more optimistic about rain on Friday.

 

This would be pretty awesome 

[LowerGarfield]

18 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Entire garden is doing so well... beyond my expectations.

I love your garden. 

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

You don't like the humidity on the East Coast, so now you get to experience West Coast style weather.

We must have soft lungs because both my gf and I have been coughing intermittently since yesterday afternoon.

High humidity is more physically debilitating, but I can always go indoors to avoid it if necessary. Meanwhile this shit is just everywhere, even indoors, despite the air filters running nonstop.