2023 - 2024 Autumn & Winter Discussions

[Black Hole]

Oops, just realized I linked the wrong image earlier. Let's try this one for the first 2/3 of September. The main points are still the same. 

[OKwx2k4]

@Black Hole I'm really still OK with a trough in the west at this point in the game, as the westward shift in Niño hasn't really had its effects yet along with the Bering Sea still shuffling into place. 

That last map is the perfect mid-autumn map. It's all coming together perfectly for cold, in my opinion. 

Can almost just feel it in the air this year it seems like. 

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

@Black Hole I'm really still OK with a trough in the west at this point in the game, as the westward shift in Niño hasn't really had its effects yet along with the Bering Sea still shuffling into place. 

That last map is the perfect mid-autumn map. It's all coming together perfectly for cold, in my opinion. 

Can almost just feel it in the air this year it seems like. 

Agreed. Everything seems to be going according to plan at this point. It's fun to track and see how it evolves! 

[jaster220]

Just an early "seasonal reminder" that a HEAVY SNOW WARNING can in some cases call for more snow in a given time period than a WSWarning!

[OKwx2k4]

Lot of folks out west looking to kick off their snow seasons right in the next 10 days. Especially the PNW, but in fantasy ranges (240-384), every western state receives snow. 

[Andie]

73* at 5am. On our way to 89/90*
Low 90’s all week.  Rain still out of the picture.  

[mlgamer]

With a new LRC setting up soon, I once joked with Gary Lezak on the old KSHB weather blog about this and he laughed and pretty much agreed. All in fun.

 

[OKwx2k4]

22 hours ago, mlgamer said:

With a new LRC setting up soon, I once joked with Gary Lezak on the old KSHB weather blog about this and he laughed and pretty much agreed. All in fun.

 

Lezak's theory holds more provable merit than many of the other weather/climate-related theories have over the same span. Its still not perfect, but I have to give dues where they are due. 

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Lezak's theory holds more provable merit than many of the other weather/climate-related theories have over the same span. Its still not perfect, but I have to give dues where they are due. 

You do not often respond to my posts so to be clear I believe the LRC is pretty much what Lezak claims it to be. At the time I was noting that though a "unique" whether pattern sets up each year we had had very similar winters over recent years. Overall I think there are other longer term patterns that the LRC works within that explains why we have below normal snowfall for years on end for example. Like I said, Gary understood my point and laughed about it.

[Up_north_MI]

At our place at Higgins Lake in northern lower Michigan in the past 23 years we’ve averaged 66.5” of snow during the 7 ElNino winters, 80” during the 11 LaNina winters and 73.5 during the 5 Neutral winters. So unless something out of the ordinary happens we’ll be looking at a below average snow amount in our area more then likely. 

[Niko]

45 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

At our place at Higgins Lake in northern lower Michigan in the past 23 years we’ve averaged 66.5” of snow during the 7 ElNino winters, 80” during the 11 LaNina winters and 73.5 during the 5 Neutral winters. So unless something out of the ordinary happens we’ll be looking at a below average snow amount in our area more then likely. 

I am hoping for a Christmas Blizzard!!!! 

[OKwx2k4]

14 hours ago, mlgamer said:

You do not often respond to my posts so to be clear I believe the LRC is pretty much what Lezak claims it to be. At the time I was noting that though a "unique" whether pattern sets up each year we had had very similar winters over recent years. Overall I think there are other longer term patterns that the LRC works within that explains why we have below normal snowfall for years on end for example. Like I said, Gary understood my point and laughed about it.

I was saying the same thing, basically. I know a lot of folks who don't believe in it or discredit it but believe in unfounded things. 

[OKwx2k4]

Ahead on GFS, if the 3 frontal passages in 10 days works out, that'll pretty much be as real as autumn can get for a lot of us.

If that's our new pattern, wait til December and January. 

[OKwx2k4]

Of note, we have hit some of the highest -PDO values ever this year....in an El Niño. How wild is that?

[jaster220]

On 9/28/2023 at 3:26 PM, Up_north_MI said:

At our place at Higgins Lake in northern lower Michigan in the past 23 years we’ve averaged 66.5” of snow during the 7 ElNino winters, 80” during the 11 LaNina winters and 73.5 during the 5 Neutral winters. So unless something out of the ordinary happens we’ll be looking at a below average snow amount in our area more then likely. 

By far, Nino is the least favorable for us here in the Water Winter Wonderland state. Weak Nino's however (and even a couple not so weak) have delivered some good situations. Heck, January of '98 hit my former place outside TC with an 18 incher before the airport went the entire month of February with zero measurable snow. I appreciate your break-down listing btw. 

[Niko]

NOAA releases 2023-2024 winter predictions for Michigan

Discussion from NOAA:

For the first time in years, an El Niño winter is upon us. That means this year’s winter outlook, released by the Climate Prediction Center, looks a little different than it has in several years.

The last three winters have been dominated by La Niña, which typically means a dry winter in the southern half of the country and colder, wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest. But that’s not the case this year, as a strong El Niño looks very likely to stick with us through early next year. This year the CPC, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is forecasting above-normal temperatures across the northern United States through the winter months.

While the North experiences a drier-than-normal winter, the majority of the South looks like it may see a wetter winter. Southern California, the Southwest, Gulf states and much of the East Coast are leaning toward more precipitation than normal.

I guess we will have to wait and see how all this plays out this winter. We can still get a big dawg or 2 in situations like these, but not always. Anyway, my December outlook from what I saw looks to be pure torch. Hello El Nino.

 

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

NOAA releases 2023-2024 winter predictions for Michigan

Discussion from NOAA:

For the first time in years, an El Niño winter is upon us. That means this year’s winter outlook, released by the Climate Prediction Center, looks a little different than it has in several years.

The last three winters have been dominated by La Niña, which typically means a dry winter in the southern half of the country and colder, wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest. But that’s not the case this year, as a strong El Niño looks very likely to stick with us through early next year. This year the CPC, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is forecasting above-normal temperatures across the northern United States through the winter months.

While the North experiences a drier-than-normal winter, the majority of the South looks like it may see a wetter winter. Southern California, the Southwest, Gulf states and much of the East Coast are leaning toward more precipitation than normal.

I guess we will have to wait and see how all this plays out this winter. We can still get a big dawg or 2 in situations like these, but not always. Anyway, my December outlook from what I saw looks to be pure torch. Hello El Nino.

 

This is such hot garbage. It's the same thing every year where NOAA smears all ENSO events into a single composite and puts that out. This isn't a real forecast and it does not consider any of the known variables out there that modify ENSO. 

[Niko]

34 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

This is such hot garbage. It's the same thing every year where NOAA smears all ENSO events into a single composite and puts that out. This isn't a real forecast and it does not consider any of the known variables out there that modify ENSO. 

I truly hope this is hot garbage or else my area isn't getting any decent white stuff this winter.

[mlgamer]

Just for fun and LRC related, here is Oct 7, 2022 and the GFS forecast for Oct 7, 2023 (12z 10/04 +72 hrs). All of the global models pretty much show this. I highlighted the 570 line. Well...not all that different really from a year ago but surely we'll have a different WETTER pattern I HOPE. lol

 

[Black Hole]

42 minutes ago, Niko said:

I truly hope this is hot garbage or else my area isn't getting any decent white stuff this winter.

If they are correct it's by accident, not by skill! 

[Black Hole]

Well with September in the books, time for some updates...

Here is the 500 hPa anomalies we ended up with for the month. It's not too different than I expected. The anomalies mostly matched the analog forecast, just more tilted to positive, but we expected that. 

 

Here is what I could come up with to try to approximate last month with el nino analog years. It matches pretty well other than that everything should be more tilted toward positive anomalies due to the warmer climatic state. 

[Black Hole]

Looking into the first half of October, it looks like we will end up with something similar to this. I suspect as we head further into the month there will be a tendency for some negative height anomalies to return to the PNW.

 

So rolling those expectations through the end of the month and trying to match analogs, you get something like this for October. Probably still needs to be adjusted higher in the net but you get the idea. 

 

Rolling those analogs forward by month here is what you get...Nov:

Dec:

Jan:

Feb:

Mar:
 

 

Here is the temp map for Feb-Mar:

Then precip:


Overall this is still a good progression. This would be a wet and cool pattern for the middle of the country into mid winter, but probably not very snowy with all of the cold bottled up north. Then sometime in Jan-Feb the ridge finally anchors over the west and weakens across Canada so we get some really cold air to come south. Snow chances would be higher but less moisture to work with. I think conceptually it makes sense as this is a typical modoki progression and we will have a good threat of a SSW this year given easterly QBO and El nino. Thoughts? 

 

[Niko]

43 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

If they are correct it's by accident, not by skill! 

So, if its not by skill, then why are they working there at NOAA. They should have been fired already, right? They must be doing something right. Anyway, I think they are going w a very strong El Nino, which, I can see why they posted those maps, but again, like you said, they could be incorrect. Time will tell. Overall, It looks like this winter will be a real complicated one, especially for the folks living up to the north.

[Black Hole]

It looks like a +IOD winter, which is typical of El Nino, though perhaps weakening towards mid to late winter. No good matches for the PDO. It's not so uncommon to get really negative PDO after the 2 or especially 3 year la nina events. But in past 3 year la nina events, there was always a neutral year before el nino started. So I suspect that the -PDO will erode through the winter as the el nino pattern sets up. 

[Black Hole]

17 minutes ago, Niko said:

So, if its not by skill, then why are they working there at NOAA. They should have been fired already, right? They must be doing something right. Anyway, I think they are going w a very strong El Nino, which, I can see why they posted those maps, but again, like you said, they could be incorrect. Time will tell. Overall, It looks like this winter will be a real complicated one, especially for the folks living up to the north.

To be clear, I am not arguing with you, it's all intended to be positive discussion. But if you look at their past predictions for el nino, they all look exactly like this with minor variations. Same thing for la nina. There is no apparent attempt to use what we know to make adjustments such as for Modoki el nino verses classical, +/- QBO or IOD, or snow cover in Oct in Siberia...etc. Lots of known seasonal predictors but every year its just smearing all the like ENSO events together. But, oh well lol 

[Madtown]

https://www.wsaw.com/2023/10/04/oak-trees-producing-way-more-acorns-than-usual-this-year/?fbclid=IwAR1LZJNCOPR6wV2_ZvTQVTnnuGPZTKsxoDfTdo-jnKM5n96it_7X31TB_Vs

 

Acorns and more acorns

[OKwx2k4]

12 hours ago, Black Hole said:

To be clear, I am not arguing with you, it's all intended to be positive discussion. But if you look at their past predictions for el nino, they all look exactly like this with minor variations. Same thing for la nina. There is no apparent attempt to use what we know to make adjustments such as for Modoki el nino verses classical, +/- QBO or IOD, or snow cover in Oct in Siberia...etc. Lots of known seasonal predictors but every year its just smearing all the like ENSO events together. But, oh well lol 

It's refreshing to see someone working there say what I've been trying to say for years. I agree with you. I get why they do it, but there's got to be room in there for other proven predictors. They all need their proper weight for it to work better. 

I think the work you've done in analogs is pretty awesome there's a lot of thought invested. 

With the QBO, -AO forecast, I'd tend to weight the cooler years more, but those are offset against a few unknowns too. A giant volcanic eruption and this likely being the first true -QBO since the absent qbo cycle a few years ago. Another anomaly is the above average Atlantic hurricane season. Solar maximum plays a role as well.

There's more to be done or taken into account for seasonal forecasting by real weather and doing it better is what we are saying.

I like the 60s analogs you used and the 2009 year as well. 

[Tom]

8 hours ago, Madtown said:

https://www.wsaw.com/2023/10/04/oak-trees-producing-way-more-acorns-than-usual-this-year/?fbclid=IwAR1LZJNCOPR6wV2_ZvTQVTnnuGPZTKsxoDfTdo-jnKM5n96it_7X31TB_Vs

 

Acorns and more acorns

I posted on this about week ago as well in the SEP thread...I'm on the side that nature is giving us some kinda clue?  The acorns are abundant here as well in the south of Arkansas.  I'm in Hot Springs Village and on the northern part of the community along the forest and I could hear all the squirrels running around on the bed of leaves on the ground.  It'll be interesting to see how this cold season evolves.

[Black Hole]

5 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

It's refreshing to see someone working there say what I've been trying to say for years. I agree with you. I get why they do it, but there's got to be room in there for other proven predictors. They all need their proper weight for it to work better. 

I think the work you've done in analogs is pretty awesome there's a lot of thought invested. 

With the QBO, -AO forecast, I'd tend to weight the cooler years more, but those are offset against a few unknowns too. A giant volcanic eruption and this likely being the first true -QBO since the absent qbo cycle a few years ago. Another anomaly is the above average Atlantic hurricane season. Solar maximum plays a role as well.

There's more to be done or taken into account for seasonal forecasting by real weather and doing it better is what we are saying.

I like the 60s analogs you used and the 2009 year as well. 

Thanks! From what I understand the cooler stratosphere from the extra warming promotes a stronger PV, which will be at odds with the negative QBO and tendency for a SSW. Solar maximum also usually supports less blocking. I've also heard that the current pattern in the NE Pacific often proceeds +AO years so there are definitely some cross currents we will have to deal with but I remain optimistic as a whole. 

[Black Hole]

Here is a loop of the ECMWF seasonal that came out today through the winter. It's a little different, but continues a theme of a good winter for a lot of folks in the southern states. 

[gimmesnow]

If we're 2 months out from serious winter and NOAA says things look bad, that's good. They are almost always wrong.

[tStacsh]

21 hours ago, Niko said:

So, if its not by skill, then why are they working there at NOAA. They should have been fired already, right? They must be doing something right. Anyway, I think they are going w a very strong El Nino, which, I can see why they posted those maps, but again, like you said, they could be incorrect. Time will tell. Overall, It looks like this winter will be a real complicated one, especially for the folks living up to the north.

They are better at their jobs than amateurs because i don't think  they use "wishful thinking" in their forecasts.  

[Niko]

3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

They are better at their jobs than amateurs because i don't think  they use "wishful thinking" in their forecasts.  

Yes...I agree.  Straight to the point...whether you like it or not.

[Niko]

On 10/4/2023 at 1:40 PM, Black Hole said:

To be clear, I am not arguing with you, it's all intended to be positive discussion. But if you look at their past predictions for el nino, they all look exactly like this with minor variations. Same thing for la nina. There is no apparent attempt to use what we know to make adjustments such as for Modoki el nino verses classical, +/- QBO or IOD, or snow cover in Oct in Siberia...etc. Lots of known seasonal predictors but every year its just smearing all the like ENSO events together. But, oh well lol 

Whatever the case may be, I don't think we will have  much of a winter this year, especially here in my neck of the woods. El Nino pattern is typically boring here. Hopefully, we can squeeze out 1 or 2 snowstorms, if we get lucky.I think there will be a lot of mixing going on. Anyways....we will see what happens. Hoping we get clobbered. EC looks like a prime spot. Moving on.

[jaster220]

On 10/4/2023 at 11:31 AM, Black Hole said:

This is such hot garbage. It's the same thing every year where NOAA smears all ENSO events into a single composite and puts that out. This isn't a real forecast and it does not consider any of the known variables out there that modify ENSO. 

Glad you noticed the same thing already mentioned by others. The fact it is based on a lasting Strong Nino is telling since that's not a guarantee. As posted prior, there's a surprising amount of variability in Nino's and their outcomes for this region, even within a given sub-set of Strong/Medium/weak Nino's. They could make mention of these variables and what alternate scenarios would look like. But, they don't! I'm still hesitant to expect much good snows from any Nino, but it is interesting to look and listen about all the "wild cards" that are in play which could lead to a surprising scenario. @Tom mentions this upcoming "brawler storm" as an indication of the new LRC pattern. Oddly, it smacks the same place that Ryan Hall's winter outlook vid targeted, lol. 

On 10/4/2023 at 12:07 PM, Niko said:

I truly hope this is hot garbage or else my area isn't getting any decent white stuff this winter.

 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Niko said:

Whatever the case may be, I don't think we will have  much of a winter this year, especially here in my neck of the woods. El Nino pattern is typically boring here. Hopefully, we can squeeze out 1 or 2 snowstorms, if we get lucky.I think there will be a lot of mixing going on. Anyways....we will see what happens. Hoping we get clobbered. EC looks like a prime spot. Moving on.

@Niko How many Nino's have you lived here for? And which one(s) stand out to you as lame?

[OKwx2k4]

21 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Thanks! From what I understand the cooler stratosphere from the extra warming promotes a stronger PV, which will be at odds with the negative QBO and tendency for a SSW. Solar maximum also usually supports less blocking. I've also heard that the current pattern in the NE Pacific often proceeds +AO years so there are definitely some cross currents we will have to deal with but I remain optimistic as a whole. 

Correct on very many points. 

I'm still optimistic as well, but we've both correctly identified the things which could go wrong or cause a warm-wet winter. 

The El Nino being forecast to shift westward and decline is a big plus, along with what appears to be a consolidating N. Pac warm pool SE of the Aleutians. 

[Niko]

11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@Niko How many Nino's have you lived here for? And which one(s) stand out to you as lame?

2015-16 , 2018-2019.

I believe these were very strong Nino's and also perhaps so powerful that they were record Nino's.

[Black Hole]

2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Correct on very many points. 

I'm still optimistic as well, but we've both correctly identified the things which could go wrong or cause a warm-wet winter. 

The El Nino being forecast to shift westward and decline is a big plus, along with what appears to be a consolidating N. Pac warm pool SE of the Aleutians. 

And I think the migrating warm pool you mentioned is a big deal. If that were forecasted to stay put I'd feel less solid about things. But as it is, we have to be careful to not read too much into the absolute magnitude of this ENSO event since we also have an already anomalously warm globe. Of course its the relative difference in temperatures that actually matters. So if you have an ENSO event that probably isn't quite as impressive as it appears (see the anemic MEI!) and its moving west with time it doesn't look so bad. 

[Black Hole]

Here is the MEI table since 1979. Our AS value finally reached weak el nino status. This year is nothing like 15/16, 97/98 or 82/83 at this point (other "strong" ninos). Its actually a pretty good match to 09/10 or 02/03 by this metric.