September 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

Big storms look possible for some of us this weekend. The timing of the front looks good for the KC and Des Moines to see some severe weather Saturday evening. 

 

[Tom]

Boy, the forecast has went from 80's and sunshine to now daily chances of rain and storms.  Gosh, I was hoping to see wall-2-wall SEP sunshine but that's not happening as this pattern remains active.  Maybe next week it calms down a bit and gives some of you west of here more rain.  Share the wealth!

Every model pretty much is showing more clouds and rain through tomorrow night.  Please bring out the sunshine Fri- Sun!

It appears mother nature is going to generate the "Monsoon of the Midwest"...

 

[Tom]

As for my friends out in AZ, it appears they have turned the corner and more of an Autumn pattern settles in with temps trending SOUTH.  Oh, what a pleasant 10 day forecast this is for my fellow Arizonan's.  This weekend looks wonderful...

[Hawkeye]

I got another 0.26" of rain last night, so yesterday's event total (0.42") was decent.

[Andie]

17 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR SHAWNEE

That’s a real nightmare.   
We got skunked in the Ft Worth area. 
Currently 94* but humidity at 38%.  Not bad.  
Nice change arriving Sunday.  

[Black Hole]

Warm advection storms developed around 11 PM last night, and continued off and on all night for me. I ended up with 1.41", one of the highest totals in Tulsa. Lots and lots of loud thunder. I only watched the first round since I am so tired but it was fun. My son said we had some small hail with the final round around 7 am but I was trying to ignore it ha

[Black Hole]

17 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR SHAWNEE

That storm really was decent, but nothing unusual from a reflectivity standpoint. But it did have a really strong mid level meso and I guess that was enough to really crank out the hail. One of the 2.5" reports came from an SPC employee so it was definitely legit. 

[hawkstwelve]

The GFS doing GFS things in the long range. 

It'll never happen like this but kinda fun to be on the precipice of that time of year...

[Clinton]

NAM and Euro showing some decent rains in my area tomorrow evening.  The GFS has yet to get on board.

[Black Hole]

It'll be interesting to see how this setup shakes out tomorrow. Looks to be a MCS during the late afternoon in an unstable and sheared environment. Most recent guidance is mostly south of Tulsa. Generally most models show a pretty good wind threat as the main hazard. 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

It'll be interesting to see how this setup shakes out tomorrow. Looks to be a MCS during the late afternoon in an unstable and sheared environment. Most recent guidance is mostly south of Tulsa. Generally most models show a pretty good wind threat as the main hazard. 

Tough forecast indeed, likely a Slight Risk needed to Central Oklahoma.

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Tough forecast indeed, likely a Slight Risk needed to Central Oklahoma.

I agree. I'd be surprised if they didn't add that on the next update. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

I seriously  hope these next several  days produce  some long awaited heavy rain! I had .15 yesterday  while many spots around had 1 to 3 inches.  Its been rinse and repeat all yr!  Why are heavy rain events so spotty! Its only rained  over 1 inch 2 times in 2023 mby!  1.52 for sept  now. Month after month after month of deficits!!! Summer after summer as well. With a couple exceptions  for 11 yrs. My pond is almost dried up.  Some people  can't get  a new pond ful for 3 plus years here!! Whens last legit flood warning? June 2021 very isolated.  Could ride a bike across the Desmoines river here now.  But hey theres water. Most creeks long dried up most of the yr!

[Hawkeye]

3 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I seriously  hope these next several  days produce  some long awaited heavy rain! I had .15 yesterday  while many spots around had 1 to 3 inches.  Its been rinse and repeat all yr!  Why are heavy rain events so spotty! Its only rained  over 1 inch 2 times in 2023 mby!  1.52 for sept  now. Month after month after month of deficits!!! Summer after summer as well. With a couple exceptions  for 11 yrs. My pond is almost dried up.  Some people  can't get  a new pond ful for 3 plus years here!! Whens last legit flood warning? June 2021 very isolated.  Could ride a bike across the Desmoines river here now.  But hey theres water. Most creeks long dried up most of the yr!

Unfortunately, the model trend is awful.  A dry ridge is expected to be parked over the lakes and won't budge.  The big low moving in from the west will hit a wall.  Western Iowa is ok, but eastern Iowa is in trouble.

[Clinton]

A potentially wet and stormy period over the next week gets started today in the middle of the country. Many of us need every drop that is being modeled and much more hopefully there will be enough lift in eastern Iowa for @Hawkeyeto get in on the action. 

As shown above @Iceresistanceand @CentralNebWeathershould see some strong storms today and the SPC has a large risk area for Saturday. 

Plenty of heat and instability Saturday evening for big storms in mby with a forecasted high of 87.

WPC rainfall forecast for the next 7 days. Oklahoma folks and Andie look to score big.

[Andie]

Hoping these make good on their promise.   We’ve had a lot of promises and very little rain. It’s missed me every time.  

[chescowxman]

A nice couple of day's to close out the week across Chester County before rain arrives toward Saturday morning lasting through Sunday early PM. The Phightin Phils may have some issues getting in their Saturday game vs. the Mets.

Records for today: HIgh 100 (1895) / Low 30 (1956) / Rain 4.30" (1979)

[Clinton]

19 minutes ago, Andie said:

Hoping these make good on their promise.   We’ve had a lot of promises and very little rain. It’s missed me every time.  

Same here. I'm hoping as the new weather pattern evolves and a El Nino influence will change our fortunes soon.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 78/57. There was 0.02” of rain fall (I had 0.07”) There were 3 CDD’s the highest wind speed was 20 MPH out of the S. The sun was out 57% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is now down to 72/51 the record high of 95 was set in 2017 this is the 2nd  day of heat wave of 2017 and the next 6 days  will all be 90 or better. The record low of 32 was set in 1969. The record rain fall amount of 3.16” fell in 1947. Last year it was a warm 84/61.

The next week looks to be mild with just a small chance of showers. Highs will range from near 80 today before dropping down to the upper 60’s by next Wednesday lows will be mostly in the 50’s At the current time I have 58 and cloudy skies

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies continue to show a lot of blocking over Canada and into the Arctic as we open up the 1st couple weeks of OCT.  As @Black Holementioned in the winter thread, the Euro weeklies suggested the STJ to start ramping up next month and this 500mb pattern pretty much sums that up perfectly.  I remember vividly last year seeing hints of a trough in the SW as we got closer to OCT and look what happened for those in the SW as most states and ski resorts had record snows and rainfall.  REPEAT coming?  It sure does look good to start off on a wet and active note.

 

Week 3-4 Temp & Precip...

 

 

[Clinton]

Heads up @CentralNebWeatherand Oklahoma peeps.

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

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Tornado potential increasing TODAY for two subtle preceding impulses across western Nebraska and southern OK into northern Texas this late afternoon and evening. Working to activate storm chase mode a day early

[OKwx2k4]

43 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Heads up @CentralNebWeatherand Oklahoma peeps.

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

Follow

 

Tornado potential increasing TODAY for two subtle preceding impulses across western Nebraska and southern OK into northern Texas this late afternoon and evening. Working to activate storm chase mode a day early

Going to be quite a day in some parts of our state, for sure. 

This is definitely quite a pattern shift we have seen and much more exciting at least than "day x of heat and drought". Although not saying its cold or even cool yet for most by any stretch.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Heads up @CentralNebWeatherand Oklahoma peeps.

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

Follow

 

Tornado potential increasing TODAY for two subtle preceding impulses across western Nebraska and southern OK into northern Texas this late afternoon and evening. Working to activate storm chase mode a day early

Had a shower just move through at 1:15. Will be watching closely, as we have 7th and 8th grade football practice at 3:45. Dew has jumped to 67. Rather humid for this late in September and harvest in full swing. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just put in a Tornado Watch. Yikes. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro shows the rain starting overnight tomorrow and not really stopping until Wednesday, besides a couple short afternoon/morning breaks here or there. By Wednesday evening, we could be looking at 2-3 inches of rainfall which is desperately needed. We are still running a -6.16 inch deficit in YTD rainfall so at this point we will take anything we can get. Should also be some decent chances at thunderstorms, especially on Saturday, which is always exciting.

In the more near-term, today has been marked with cloudy skies and occasional showers with the current temp sitting at only 67 degrees. Very refreshing after the recent bout of heat we had again the past few days with highs in the 80s/90s. Looking forward to this pattern change!

[bud2380]

We have winter weather advisories in Montana and Idaho.  Only a couple inches expected though.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Tornado Warning. We are in the shelter at school with our teams until 4:45 pm. 

[Bryan1117]

19 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Tornado Warning. We are in the shelter at school with our teams until 4:45 pm. 

Stay safe my friend!

[CentralNebWeather]

35 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Stay safe my friend!

Thanks. All good for now. Both our middle school girls and varsity girls were hosting volleyball games at the schools. They and all fans went to shelters. Got heavy rain and a lot of wind. Haven’t heard any storm reports. I’ll post if I hear anything. 

[CentralNebWeather]

More rain approaching from the west. 

[Black Hole]

Didn't really work out for much for eastern OK. Nothing that was obviously severe and at this point that probably won't happen. Model trends are looking good for lots of rain overnight though. HRRR really going to town on the latest run. Probably overdone, but still some good potential. 

[Clinton]

Some nice storms firing up in eastern Kansas.  Slowly moving my way, not sure if I'll be able to real them in or not.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

 

Pouring rain as of 9:15 pm. Parts of our county are in flash flood warnings. 1-3” or more being reported. Great rain.  

[Clinton]

The storms have made it here, lots of thunder and lightning. Hopefully it will be a decent rain event!

[Tom]

7 hours ago, Clinton said:

The storms have made it here, lots of thunder and lightning. Hopefully it will be a decent rain event!

I'm happy for you bud...it looks like the next few days will be some of the best chances for appreciable rain you've received all throughout the warm season.  Is that accurate?  I haven't really paid attn sinceI was out in AZ through the Spring.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a warm summer like day with the official H/L of 80/58. There was no rain fall and the sun was out 41% of the time. For today the average H/L is 72/51 the record high of 95 was in the heat wave of 2017 and the record low of 33 was in the long cold snap at the end of September 1976 when there were 10 of 11 nights with lows in the low 40’s to the upper 20’s with lows of 29 on the 24th and 32 on the 28th The record rain fall amount of 3.14” fell in 1988. Last year the H/L was 63/45 and there was a trace of rain fall.

Today looks to be the last of the warms days for a while as highs will be near 80. The rest of the next week will see highs in the mid 70’s over the weekend then dropping to the uppers 60’s to low 70’s Lows will be mostly in the low to mid 50’s There does not look to be much in the way of rain fall.

[Andie]

Sunday afternoon will be our last hot day. We’ll trade the mid/high 90’s for the 80’s for a week. 
This has been a long hot summer.  Tough on everyone/thing.  
Sunday should bring us some showers with that front as well.  Our low early Monday should be 70!!   Ahhh!

[Stormy]

On 9/19/2023 at 1:35 PM, Bryan1117 said:

Made a trip up to Boone, IA this morning for a customer training event and they got absolutely dumped on up there as storms trained continuously over the area… I have no idea how much rain fell, however all the ditches were full of runoff. 

Drove out from Omaha at 6:00am this morning and most of the drive was accompanied by occasional downpours and some of the most vivid lightning I have seen… definitely  will be a day trip that I will remember LOL.

Heading back west now out of Des Moines and finally out of the torrential rains… meanwhile it looks warm and dry as usual back home.

I was just east of the main rain area with mostly dry and warm wx continuing here as well. 

Edited September 22, 2023 by Stormy

[Clinton]

55 minutes ago, Tom said:

I'm happy for you bud...it looks like the next few days will be some of the best chances for appreciable rain you've received all throughout the warm season.  Is that accurate?  I haven't really paid attn sinceI was out in AZ through the Spring.

It was a good rain last night I got .85 inches.  Looks like more is on the way later this morning and a good chance of some big storms tomorrow evening.  It's possible this will be my wettest weekend since last November!  I am over 13 inches below normal for the year. This forecast looks good though.

[Stormy]

On 9/19/2023 at 12:17 PM, Hawkeye said:

Mother Nature gave us trash yet again overnight and this morning.  There was very little heavy rain anywhere in the area, but the best rain still split north and south of Cedar Rapids.  I got some thunder, particularly from one decent cell, but it was tiny and passed through in about two minutes.  The rest of the rain was very light.  I finished with only 0.16".

We are now drier from May-Sep this year than we were in 2012... 12 inches below normal.

Only had 0.13" total here out of that system. My monthly total so far sitting at only an even 1".

My August total was only 1.80".

It's been extremely dry for parts of eastern Iowa this year!