October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4  not bad

(4-run trend)

[Phil]

GFS not giving up yet. CMC still says no. 18z EPS said hell no.

Time to microwave some popcorn.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Before Day 5 and cold air is sneaking back into northeastern Washington.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

(4-run trend)

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Before Day 5 and cold air is sneaking back into northeastern Washington.

I bet Kayla is regretting her move from Montana right about now! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, MossMan said:

I bet Kayla is regretting her move from Montana right about now! 

I bet so yup.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 36 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5 850s. That's pretty dang impressive

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

If this were a month from now I would have already peed a little.

[Gradient Keeper]

Jim @snow_wizard would love this run!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[the_convergence_zone]

The EC has never been fully in or out on westside cold, it was like 3/4 of the way to saying yes two days ago and now it’s 3/4 of the way to saying no. Could head back the other way again. Better odds east obviously. 

Personally I kind of hate getting a block this time of year, I would much rather prefer an active Pacific storm train and be tracking potential windstorms right now. Without true arctic air these Alaska block patterns are pretty boring in terms of actual weather. If it snows down to the top of Tiger Mountain next weekend I’ll go try and see it but even that seems unlikely. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

I won't be here for the 00z Euro. Pretty good GFS Op run. Hopefully the GEFS is in decent agreement, and of course we always seem to heavily weigh the 00z EC and EPS above all.

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

It won't happen but notable as this is the first run of the season showing a chance of snow for me.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I won't be here for the 00z Euro. Pretty good GFS Op run. Hopefully the GEFS is in decent agreement, and of course we always seem to heavily weigh the 00z EC and EPS above all.

I got it tonight Rob.

EC day 1

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 2

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 3

[Doinko]

00z Euro is definitely better than the 12z so far

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 4

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 5

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 6

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 7

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 8

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 9

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC day 10

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Chilly morning on the 29th per the EC tonight.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Coldest 850s are on the 28th.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Just a reminder, the models will always go back and forth during the fall and winter season. It's because it's hard to figure out where the cold air will go. The models are picking up a big pattern change but what will happen is still to hard for the models to know until we are about 2 days out. 

As you can see, the Euro is trending back towards the GFS now. 

I need to go, I work today even though it's supposed to be my day off. I'll look at the models later today. Have fun

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS showing a chilly morning on the 29th also.

[MossMan]

Now this looks like October…Much like yesterday. 
51 currently. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low clouds and drizzly, with a low of 52 this morning. Fall colors have been a major disappointment so far this year, with all the warm nights and real lack of chill in the air overall.

Had a sort of blah and mild mostly cloudy 68/51 spread yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

GFS has been impressively consistent.   Hard to say it did not win this model battle.

12Z run shows some lowland snow within 96 hours.   

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS has been impressively consistent.   Hard to say it did not win this model battle.

12Z run shows some lowland snow within 96 hours.   

 

I’m in the purple….

[Chewbacca Defense]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS has been impressively consistent.   Hard to say it did not win this model battle.

12Z run shows some lowland snow within 96 hours.   

 

What's the closest we've come and have a rug pull.  For some reason 48 hours comes to mind, but my memory kinda sucks on these things....

 

 

[Christensen87]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS has been impressively consistent.   Hard to say it did not win this model battle.

12Z run shows some lowland snow within 96 hours.   

 

Heading to Eburg!