October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

End of season harvest!

Blessings. We’ve been mired in gloom for 3 days here. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Blessings. We’ve been mired in gloom for 3 days here. 

Same here. At least it’s not as hot as the summer.

[Iceresistance]

PNW trough trended stronger on 18z GFS compared to 12z GFS

This also has implications for my location as well

[Snownerd3000]

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like it's going to get nippy.

Past history says this type of pattern coming up is the kiss of death for the winter when it happens in a Nino October, but December could be in play for something good.

[Snownerd3000]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow 

Noticed it hinting at January troughing earlier this week. Worth keeping an eye on. Would be funny if it took a Nino for us to hit in January. 

[Cold Snap]

44 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Noticed it hinting at January troughing earlier this week. Worth keeping an eye on. Would be funny if it took a Nino for us to hit in January. 

I honestly have a feeling that if there’s a year where we are going to break the January curse it’s going to be during an El Niño. I feel like Mother Nature is trying to troll us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dark skies 

[the_convergence_zone]

Got some garden beds cleaned out today, I figured even my warm spot in Seattle will get a decent frost this week. 

Looks wet on the back side of this cold wave. November is such a fun month for weather watching around here…except for the yawner last November. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nws going with a high of 41 here on Wednesday. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

I thought this was very funny considering the upcoming weather

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I thought this was very funny considering the upcoming weather

Christmas movies are already on Hallmark!

[MossMan]

Mowed again! Possibly the last mow of 2023? Also did some landscape trim up and blowing as well. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, MossMan said:

Mowed again! Possibly the last mow of 2023? Also did some landscape trim up and blowing as well. 

Looking good. Far too wet to mow here. I'm hoping for a 3-5 day dry streak which this time of year would likely be accompanied by offshore flow.

00z GFS in 1 hour 40 minutes

[Ken in Wood Village]

Here comes the low pressure system 🌧🌨

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Rob you got QB tonight? I’m busy RN. Gonna peek at it as I can.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Rob you got QB tonight? I’m busy RN. Gonna peek at it as I can.

No worries. I should be here for the 00z GFS, but the Euro I am not 100% sure.

00z GEM in 50 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 - Dang, that's pretty.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 wow

(4-run trend)

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Mowed again! Possibly the last mow of 2023? Also did some landscape trim up and blowing as well. 

I  got what I assume is my last mow in and pulled up my irrigation hoses, and took down the sliding shade over our deck.  My trees have not shed their leaves yet (they are just starting) so I might run the mower over the lawn one more time to pick up the leaves. 

 

Down to 44 so far this evening.  I was foggy until mid morning, and stayed very cloudy up until just after sunset.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 - Interesting shift to the west with the block.

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GDPS(GEM) 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[the_convergence_zone]

Looks good for @Port Angeles Foothiller

[the_convergence_zone]

HRRR through Tuesday evening (10:1)

[AbbyJr]

On 10/9/2023 at 3:19 PM, Phil said:

Yes during the middle of winter. +PNA/+WPO increases WAFz thru NPAC, triggering top-down W1 response in the SPV. Scand/Eurasia ridge in tandem opens door to upward propagating W2. In 2018/19 they occurred in tandem, which is how that SSW evolved and overpowered the El Nino inflluence.

In fact you could argue that *extreme* blocking during El Nino has a higher ceiling to produce anomalous outcomes in the PNW given the southward shift in the NPAC jet & augmented STJ. There's a reason 1968/69 was one of the greatest winter up there.

Do you think the PNW will ever see a repeat of the 1968/69 winter?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Blueberry fields in the Fraser Valley were putting on a show today.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Do you think the PNW will ever see a repeat of the 1968/69 winter?

Yup.  It could be a while though.

In the 20th century 1915-16 and 1949-50 were on par with that one.

[snow_wizard]

33 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GDPS(GEM) 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly

It will be interesting to see if the duration of the block gets extended in the coming days.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

GFS says I get a few flakes IMBY. Alas, it's the GFS and it stands alone. But it's really looking good for @Port Angeles Foothiller. Most models now show him getting something.

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It will be interesting to see if the duration of the block gets extended in the coming days.

Yeah, I hope so instead of it slowly drifting over us.

00z ECMWF in 17 minutes

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I thought this was very funny considering the upcoming weather

I was listening to ESPN Radio for the ALCS tonight and there is an obnoxious Christmas carol themed ad that kept playing on commercial breaks. Like it's not even Halloween yet. This is someone who decorates for Halloween and Thanksgiving and doesn't do Xmas until Black Friday.