October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I have always been curious how much snow Mount Olympus gets.  I don't think anyone has ever stayed up there through a winter to take measurements.  The snowfall amounts up there must be truly incredible.

This is the best picture of that mountain I have ever seen.

 

 

I've been all over the west exploring and hunting and the Olympics are one of the most rugged and beautiful places on earth. I've Thought about the snowfall as well and it almost has to be close to the baker record. The west slope of that mountain at 7k feet must just get nuked with snow. 

[the_convergence_zone]

23 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

My wife climbed it last year. It still has a snow field in August. It is on the rainy side so must get absolutely pounded with snow. 

Olympic National Park does have a long term record of the ~April 1 snow depth on Blue Glacier along with a number of other sites that they helicopter to every year and take depth and SWE observations with long metal poles. I think they also go out in January if I recall correctly. I don't think it's available online but if you ask the park scientists I bet you could get ahold of it. The Buckinghorse SNOTEL is on the windward side but is too low to really capture how much snow falls over there.

As part of the project that I worked on in grad school we put instruments in just about every clearing we could find on the SW side of the Olympic Mountains. We found that the ~1000-3000 ft elevation band got more precipitation than the higher elevations although there is a ton of local shadowing that depends on wind direction so it's hard to say where the rainiest spot of them all is. Out of what has long term instrumentation, the CRN site near Lake Quinault and the Humptulips RAWS site both get absolutely hammered and can easily hit 120-130 inches/year. And that CRN site is right on the valley floor, it doesn't need any elevation at all to achieve those crazy rainfall totals although we had a site at 1,500 ft elevation up on the ridge above it and that spot got even more, a few times it went over 12" of rain in a single event. I wish we had a long-term site there because it would go over 150 inches of rain for sure in the wetter years.

We also had a 10-ft trailer parked at ~3000 ft near Wynoochee Pass, that might have been the wettest spot of them all. During one storm cycle that spot picked up 40 inches of liquid equivalent in 10 days -- so Seattle's entire annual rainfall in just over a week!!! 

The physical reason is that you need the warm rain processes to achieve the really crazy annual precipitation totals -- it can't be achieved from snow alone. 

 

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

24 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I've been all over the west exploring and hunting and the Olympics are one of the most rugged and beautiful places on earth. I've Thought about the snowfall as well and it almost has to be close to the baker record. The west slope of that mountain at 7k feet must just get nuked with snow. 

Almost every hike in the olympics is brutal in terms of elevation gain. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

57 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Olympic National Park does have a long term record of the ~April 1 snow depth on Blue Glacier along with a number of other sites that they helicopter to every year and take depth and SWE observations with long metal poles. I think they also go out in January if I recall correctly. I don't think it's available online but if you ask the park scientists I bet you could get ahold of it. The Buckinghorse SNOTEL is on the windward side but is too low to really capture how much snow falls over there.

As part of the project that I worked on in grad school we put instruments in just about every clearing we could find on the SW side of the Olympic Mountains. We found that the ~1000-3000 ft elevation band got more precipitation than the higher elevations although there is a ton of local shadowing that depends on wind direction so it's hard to say where the rainiest spot of them all is. Out of what has long term instrumentation, the CRN site near Lake Quinault and the Humptulips RAWS site both get absolutely hammered and can easily hit 120-130 inches/year. And that CRN site is right on the valley floor, it doesn't need any elevation at all to achieve those crazy rainfall totals although we had a site at 1,500 ft elevation up on the ridge above it and that spot got even more, a few times it went over 12" of rain in a single event. I wish we had a long-term site there because it would go over 150 inches of rain for sure in the wetter years.

We also had a 10-ft trailer parked at ~3000 ft near Wynoochee Pass, that might have been the wettest spot of them all. During one storm cycle that spot picked up 40 inches of liquid equivalent in 10 days -- so Seattle's entire annual rainfall in just over a week!!! 

The physical reason is that you need the warm rain processes to achieve the really crazy annual precipitation totals -- it can't be achieved from snow alone. 

 

 

I have seen 10ft of snow at 2500ft around dusk peak near spider lake on the south side. I was up there on a snowmobile in 2007

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

46 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Almost every hike in the olympics is brutal in terms of elevation gain. 

Even the mt Washington hike is a leg burner!

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Olympic National Park does have a long term record of the ~April 1 snow depth on Blue Glacier along with a number of other sites that they helicopter to every year and take depth and SWE observations with long metal poles. I think they also go out in January if I recall correctly. I don't think it's available online but if you ask the park scientists I bet you could get ahold of it. The Buckinghorse SNOTEL is on the windward side but is too low to really capture how much snow falls over there.

As part of the project that I worked on in grad school we put instruments in just about every clearing we could find on the SW side of the Olympic Mountains. We found that the ~1000-3000 ft elevation band got more precipitation than the higher elevations although there is a ton of local shadowing that depends on wind direction so it's hard to say where the rainiest spot of them all is. Out of what has long term instrumentation, the CRN site near Lake Quinault and the Humptulips RAWS site both get absolutely hammered and can easily hit 120-130 inches/year. And that CRN site is right on the valley floor, it doesn't need any elevation at all to achieve those crazy rainfall totals although we had a site at 1,500 ft elevation up on the ridge above it and that spot got even more, a few times it went over 12" of rain in a single event. I wish we had a long-term site there because it would go over 150 inches of rain for sure in the wetter years.

We also had a 10-ft trailer parked at ~3000 ft near Wynoochee Pass, that might have been the wettest spot of them all. During one storm cycle that spot picked up 40 inches of liquid equivalent in 10 days -- so Seattle's entire annual rainfall in just over a week!!! 

The physical reason is that you need the warm rain processes to achieve the really crazy annual precipitation totals -- it can't be achieved from snow alone. 

 

 

Henderson Lake on Vancouver Island averages about 270” per year and can push it to near 370” in the record setting year. 1997

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Almost every hike in the olympics is brutal in terms of elevation gain. 

A lot of them are, but not all.

One trick is to start high, e.g. in the Deer Park or Hurricane Ridge areas. Even the Mt. Townsend trail has an upper trailhead that starts at about 4,000 feet elevation, which cuts the elevation gain roughly in half.

The Duckabush river trail has a pretty modest elevation gain if you turn around at Big Hump. That was always a springtime favourite of mine (great plant diversity because that area has some outlier populations of generally more southern species due to having never been glaciated, plus has a great variety of habitat types, including rocky balds).

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

The Canadian model is the only one that ever gets the shadow correct. Looks like I will see very little rain over the next week. 

 

[MossMan]

It’s November now! Think snow!

And posting in the November thread! 

Edited November 1 by MossMan

[the_convergence_zone]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

A lot of them are, but not all.

One trick is to start high, e.g. in the Deer Park or Hurricane Ridge areas. Even the Mt. Townsend trail has an upper trailhead that starts at about 4,000 feet elevation, which cuts the elevation gain roughly in half.

The Duckabush river trail has a pretty modest elevation gain if you turn around at Big Hump. That was always a springtime favourite of mine (great plant diversity because that area has some outlier populations of generally more southern species due to having never been glaciated, plus has a great variety of habitat types, including rocky balds).

The Elwha and the East Fork Quinault (Enchanted Valley) are both nice rolling trails. And absolutely beautiful. I need to get out to the ones on the east side of the peninsula someday...

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The Elwha and the East Fork Quinault (Enchanted Valley) are both nice rolling trails. And absolutely beautiful. I need to get out to the ones on the east side of the peninsula someday...

The Staircase (north fork Skokomish) area is also nice and relatively flat. Also the less well-known South Fork Skokimish area (outside the National Park on National Forest land) was a favourite of mine. Despite logging being permitted, there's a lot of old growth remaining. Also on NF land is the Dungeness River trail above Sequim.

Most of these require driving on unpaved roads to access, which tends to keep a lot of the crowds away (even though they are graded roads that any old car can navigate).

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The Elwha and the East Fork Quinault (Enchanted Valley) are both nice rolling trails. And absolutely beautiful. I need to get out to the ones on the east side of the peninsula someday...

I had a wonderful opportunity to do a makeshift research/field project at the Elwha in my senior year. Explored and sampled many different parts of the river, went on hikes. We explored the river's mouth, a section immediately off highway 101, as well as the remnants of the Glines Dam and the recovering valley ecosystem. Some part of my soul still lives out on the Olympic peninsula.

[Meatyorologist]

I appreciate how models have since backed off on the shadowing component of tonight's rainstorm for north Seattle. We'll still get a piece of it, and we're right on the edge, but an inch of rain now seems like a decent bet.

[Meatyorologist]

18z GFS was nice. Consistently cool and active.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Obs for the last two days of the month. Ended up with a 58/30 day on the 30th. Morning frost, clear skies and afternoon east winds.

56/34 day on Halloween. Light morning frost then high clouds drifting in at times, calmer afternoon winds. Overall a very visually appealing day sky-wise.

Edited November 3 by Cascadia_Wx

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting to see higher heights over the GOA and Aleutians being advertised about a week out on the latest model runs.  Might be a shot to get things colder again.

[snow_wizard]

On 11/1/2023 at 9:48 AM, the_convergence_zone said:

Olympic National Park does have a long term record of the ~April 1 snow depth on Blue Glacier along with a number of other sites that they helicopter to every year and take depth and SWE observations with long metal poles. I think they also go out in January if I recall correctly. I don't think it's available online but if you ask the park scientists I bet you could get ahold of it. The Buckinghorse SNOTEL is on the windward side but is too low to really capture how much snow falls over there.

As part of the project that I worked on in grad school we put instruments in just about every clearing we could find on the SW side of the Olympic Mountains. We found that the ~1000-3000 ft elevation band got more precipitation than the higher elevations although there is a ton of local shadowing that depends on wind direction so it's hard to say where the rainiest spot of them all is. Out of what has long term instrumentation, the CRN site near Lake Quinault and the Humptulips RAWS site both get absolutely hammered and can easily hit 120-130 inches/year. And that CRN site is right on the valley floor, it doesn't need any elevation at all to achieve those crazy rainfall totals although we had a site at 1,500 ft elevation up on the ridge above it and that spot got even more, a few times it went over 12" of rain in a single event. I wish we had a long-term site there because it would go over 150 inches of rain for sure in the wetter years.

We also had a 10-ft trailer parked at ~3000 ft near Wynoochee Pass, that might have been the wettest spot of them all. During one storm cycle that spot picked up 40 inches of liquid equivalent in 10 days -- so Seattle's entire annual rainfall in just over a week!!! 

The physical reason is that you need the warm rain processes to achieve the really crazy annual precipitation totals -- it can't be achieved from snow alone. 

 

 

Even at that you need to take snowfall measurements every day to really know what the annual snowfall is.

[snow_wizard]

Kind of bizarre that a good 80% of the current analogs are from La Nina years.  Can't wait to see how the next couple of months play out!

[ShawniganLake]

Shawnigan Lake officially recorded 7 days with at least a trace of snow on the ground in October.  Pretty remarkable.  Very well could be the high water mark for this winter season.