November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phishy Wx]

cliff diving tonight and peak summiting by morning

ride the train

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I thought this was a slam dunk.  A no doubter.  A No Question About It situation. 

It's fun to speculate and it could still happen, but this is why pro mets roll their eyes when they read our forums.  Though I still think they should just let us be instead of sending angry emails to Fred

 

Never underestimate the power of a Jim-jinx.

I also feel like my forecasting skills for this kind of ENSO/LP state are very rusty. I’m just not “seeing” the pattern in the way I could during the previous 3 years. Usually the gears start to click for me in Nov and I can see the seasonal inflection points establishing, but not this year. At least not yet.

Time to dust off some literature I haven’t read in 5+ years.  

[Weiner Warrior]

It's over. It's going to be 50 degrees and rainy all winter with one chance of snow that doesn't materialize. Winter over. 

[The Winter Warlock]

I HAVE RETURNED MY BREAD AND BANANAS TO THE SUPERMARKET

[MossMan]

This is all Matt’s fault for going all in today! 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Never underestimate the power of a Jim-jinx.

I also feel like my forecasting skills for this kind of ENSO/LP state are very rusty. I’m just not “seeing” the pattern in the way I could during the previous 3 years.

Time to dust off some literature I haven’t read in 5+ years.  

We can’t let Mr “all-in” get off the hook so easy either @Deweydog

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, The Winter Warlock said:

I HAVE RETURNED MY BREAD AND BANANAS TO THE SUPERMARKET

Yeah I cancelled my new tire order as well. Might as well run nearly bald tires until next season. 

[Meatyorologist]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Watching Office Christmas Party on TBS right now... impressively realistic snow scenes    I always hate the snow machine look in movies.   This one did it right.   Even had a brief shot of the news in the background and a weather map that shows a realistic pattern that would bring snow to Chicago.   

Sounds like TBS has an undercover met

[Snownerd3000]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Watching Office Christmas Party on TBS right now... impressively realistic snow scenes    I always hate the snow machine look in movies.   This one did it right.   Even had a brief shot of the news in the background and a weather map that shows a realistic pattern that would bring snow to Chicago.   

Haven't started our Christmas movie viewing yet but that's on the list I have to watch every year now. 

[Phishy Wx]

lulz

the 'wait to wednesday' rule FTW

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[iFred]

15 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I thought this was a slam dunk.  A no doubter.  A No Question About It situation. 

It's fun to speculate and it could still happen, but this is why pro mets roll their eyes when they read our forums.  Though I still think they should just let us be instead of sending angry emails to Fred

 

Fun fact: A family friend of my wife works at NOAA, but on fish things. Back during the storm of 2019, I causally brought up how our forum was mentioned in The Stranger and how maybe with a little edgy notoriety, we’d might get a pro met or two from Sandpoint to post. The next day my wife got a Facebook message from this government fishery friend and told her to tell me that someone who worked mornings said “they’d rather forecast on the Naked News Than ever log in to see what those children have to say, much less post about it”

 

I stopped asking if I could get a tour right after that.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, lowlandsnow said:

It concerns me that the Canadian also had the low make landfall farther north though

The GFS and GEM Op just haven’t caught up yet to the pattern change so I’m not surprised what they are showing. Once they catch on, it will be a big sudden shift to what the the EURO showed earlier. The 12z JMA is also on our side and from my previous experiences that model if it agrees with the EURO on cold weather, is a great signal that it will happen.

[the_convergence_zone]

The GEFS is such a piece of crap, no ensemble system should have this big of a run-to-run swing. The Euro ensembles will probably either nudge a bit toward the warmer solutions or stay put with 35-40 out of the 50 members showing cold. 
 

Edit — maybe I’m too harsh, the warm trend is there but not that crazy of a warm swing perhaps…

[Kolk1604]

I didn't look at this earlier. Oregon gets dumped on with 6 hours next Monday/Tuesday (12z Euro) 

 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The GEFS is such a piece of crap, no ensemble system should have this big of a run-to-run swing. The Euro ensembles will probably either nudge a bit toward the warmer solutions or stay put with 35-40 out of the 50 members showing cold. 

it really is, absolute trash.  

[Deweydog]

Y’all’s lack of faith is unsettling. Unreadable, in fact. I’m out of here guys have a great winter and go Knights. Walter says bye.

[Deweydog]

Can someone post the NOGAPS and MRF ensembles?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Phishy Wx]

lol local news already honking about 'possible snow in the valleys' T-giving week

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, iFred said:

Fun fact: A family friend of my wife works at NOAA, but on fish things. Back during the storm of 2019, I causally brought up how our forum was mentioned in The Stranger and how maybe with a little edgy notoriety, we’d might get a pro met or two from Sandpoint to post. The next day my wife got a Facebook message from this government fishery friend and told her to tell me that someone who worked mornings said “they’d rather forecast on the Naked News Than ever log in to see what those children have to say, much less post about it”

 

I stopped asking if I could get a tour right after that.

I would’ve done the tour just for the lols. Take it as a half-compliment we don’t have the bureaucratic culture.

If you really want mets to post here, you’ll have to completely separate the straight meteorological analysis from all banter/in-house drama, and actually enforce it.  The freewheeling tone of conversation isn’t for everyone.

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I would’ve done the tour just for the lols. Take it as a half-compliment we don’t share the bureaucratic culture.

If you really want mets to post here, you’ll have to completely separate the straight meteorological analysis from all banter/in-house drama, and actually enforce it.  The freewheeling tone of conversation isn’t for everyone.

head over to American WX?

[Meatyorologist]

32 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

cliff diving tonight and peak summiting by morning

ride the train

RYDE TILL WE DYE B4B13333333

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Phishy Wx]

[Phil]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

 

head over to American WX?

I’ve been on AmWx since it replaced EasternWx, and I still vastly prefer it here. But I can see why some wouldn’t.

AmWx puts a lot of effort into separating the professional/scientific analysis from the regular banter. And during major events they institute a “storm mode” with harsh consequences for those who violate the rules. Seems a bit heavy handed to me but apparently that’s what people like.  

[lowlandsnow]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

Very apparent differences hard to tell what is going to happen at the end of the run but I think the ECMWF still looks good

[Phil]

00z Euro just made a big shift over E-Siberia/Okhotsk Sea. Not sure what the downstream consequences will be, yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Meatyorologist]

15 minutes ago, iFred said:

Fun fact: A family friend of my wife works at NOAA, but on fish things. Back during the storm of 2019, I causally brought up how our forum was mentioned in The Stranger and how maybe with a little edgy notoriety, we’d might get a pro met or two from Sandpoint to post. The next day my wife got a Facebook message from this government fishery friend and told her to tell me that someone who worked mornings said “they’d rather forecast on the Naked News Than ever log in to see what those children have to say, much less post about it”

 

I stopped asking if I could get a tour right after that.

I toured Sandpoint back in 2018-19 for my senior project. I reached out to Reid Wolcott and he let me tour the campus and meet everyone there.

You have to understand that these people are not like you and I. They're postgrad former party students or ex-military. They're not greasy weather nerds who know the perfect look to a BC slider, they're degreed professionals, half of which barely enjoy the weather and just do what they do for the same reason most any adult does what they do for a living---a paycheck. They're basically your mom or your dad.

If you're looking for the type of autistic enthusiasm that comes with posting #LOCKITIN at 3am to an audience of no one you're probably going to need to find a different office.

[Cascadia_Wx]

56/46 day here. Partly to mostly cloudy and dry until well after sunset with breezy east winds. Rain moved in around 7pm, moderate at times. Currently 50 with light rain.

[the_convergence_zone]

Having joined last spring, the passion for winter weather on here is something to behold. You all have transcended snow weenie level and reached a level of desperation that is somewhat concerning if I’m honest. I don’t even care that much for winter if I’m honest but y’all have me cheering for snow so I can experience what will surely be pure jubilation from this group. 

[SpaceRace22]

So yes the operational 00z GFS was doodoo tonight, but the GFS Ensembles continue to look good, especially for Seattle.

Something I think the Ensemble mean and single point meteograms don't fully capture is just how "close" things are to being the pattern you want. But looking at the individual perturbations will give a sense of this. And the majority of these look either excellent, or very very close to excellent for the entire region. Only a few members now show 0 snow for any of the lowlands. Or just look at p30 if you need a dose of copium here.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Having joined last spring, the passion for winter weather on here is something to behold. You all have transcended snow weenie level and reached a level of desperation that is somewhat concerning if I’m honest. I don’t even care that much for winter if I’m honest but y’all have me cheering for snow so I can experience what will surely be pure jubilation from this group. 

Morel like addicts. Even when we do get snow, everyone is looking at the next set of maps to see when we might get more. Gotta have another fix of that (cold) white powder! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Dan the Weatherman]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve been on AmWx since it replaced EasternWx, and I still vastly prefer it here. But I can see why some wouldn’t.

AmWx puts a lot of effort into separating the professional/scientific analysis from the regular banter. And during major events they institute a “storm mode” with harsh consequences for those who violate the rules. Seems a bit heavy handed to me but apparently that’s what people like.  

The only problem I have with American Weather is that they don't focus much attention on the West Coast, including the PNW and California, unless that has changed recently.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Morel like addicts. Even when we do get snow, everyone is looking at the next set of maps to see when we might get more. Gotta have another fix of that (cold) white powder! 

Not knowing what to do after a cold snap genuinely used to give me whiplash as a kid. It's gotten better with age, but it will always be a very sudden transition going from paying attention to the weather all the time, then back to your actual life. It feels similar to returning from vacation, maybe a little milder.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

The only problem I have with American Weather is that they don't focus much attention on the West Coast, including the PNW and California, unless that has changed recently.

There’s a western subforum there, but it’s comparatively bland.