November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Well the 12z JMA decided to join the EURO with overhead ridging next Tuesday. Onto the 18z GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We are cooked if we are down to the CFS. See y'all at the next la nina

It’s November 13th, let’s not write December off for at least another week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Well the 12z JMA decided to join the EURO with overhead ridging next Tuesday. Onto the 18z GFS.

Well at least the pacific is shutdown per Jim’s request.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Models could easily flip back to a colder solution. Lets try not to panic. 

[fubario]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Models could easily flip back to a colder solution. Lets try not to panic. 

In these scenarios, I like to imagine the forum reaction if it were reversed - ridge to sudden troughing. It would probably be dismissed by most as a "blip" and "let's see if the next run shows the same thing". When it's trough to sudden ridge...it's "it's over!". Just, funny. Also, curious about what the sudden model changes mean, other than "uncertainty" . I guess i'd be more pessimistic if it showed a gradual shift than a 180 degree change? But, what do i know. lol

[runninthruda206]

**** man I'm going to Calgary/banff for thanksgiving and was hoping to experience negative numbers for the first time!!! 

[Deweydog]

Gorgeous afternoon.

Took doggo on a little walk on Salmon Creek a little earlier when I was out meeting with the builder at the compound. Pretty stoked this will basically in our backyard. (sorry not sorry Jess)

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like a cold pool Thanksgiving with the ridge building over us. I guess I'll take a fake cold Turkey. May not have a choice.

00z GFS in 5 hours 13 minutes
00z ECMWF in 7 hours 23 minutes

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Looks like a cold pool Thanksgiving with the ridge building over us. I guess I'll take a fake cold Turkey. May not have a choice.

00z GFS in 5 hours 13 minutes
00z ECMWF in 7 hours 23 minutes

If we have a choice, can I get an 85 redux?

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

I know it probably sounds oversimplified at this stage of the game but do you have a good chiropractor? My sciatica flares like a mofo at times and the place I go does miraculous work. I was convinced about eight years ago right now (wasn’t a pleasant Thanksgiving) that I was on a one way track toward the OR but they righted the ship. 

Yeah I have a chiropractor but haven’t been in awhile. They can definitely work wonders, I had a random neck spasm several years back and he cleared it right up. Was really amazing since I could barely move my head when I walked into the office.

Unfortunately since I’ve got disc fluid pouring onto my nerves it’s probably beyond what a chiropractor can alleviate. I’m crying uncle here, man. Losing my f**king mind. My resting heart rate is literally 140 because of the pain. Pouring sweat. Don’t know how I’m going to make it to Friday (that’s the earliest they could get me in).

All I can say is thank god the pain is only in/near the disc itself, no sciatica or referred pain. I wouldn’t be able to handle that.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

Seems we have a lot against us in this currently Strong +ENSO event.

Interestingly 2022/23 is almost the perfect SST “anti-log”, if there ever was such a thing. Maybe just run with the opposite of whatever pattern set in last winter? Lazy but it might work.  

In which case, it’ll be 80°F here on Christmas Eve, since last year was our coldest one on record (but snowless as usual).

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah I have a chiropractor but haven’t been in awhile. They can definitely work wonders, I had a random neck spasm several years back and he cleared it right up. Was really amazing since I could barely move my head when I walked into the office.

Unfortunately since I’ve got disc fluid pouring onto my nerves it’s probably beyond what a chiropractor can alleviate. I’m crying uncle here, man. Losing my f**king mind. My resting heart rate is literally 140 because of the pain. Pouring sweat. Don’t know how I’m going to make it to Friday (that’s the earliest they could get me in).

All I can say is thank god the pain is only in/near the disc itself, no sciatica or referred pain. I wouldn’t be able to handle that.

D**n, man. Sorry to hear that. Yeah, the ruptured disc definitely goes beyond the adjustment world. Hope they get to the bottom of it soon.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We are cooked if we are down to the CFS. See y'all at the next la nina

Actually I would view losing the CFS as a good sign. Has gotten each of the last 5 winters completely wrong here. Perfect opposite each time.

49 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well at least the pacific is shutdown per Jim’s request.

Well it’s not entirely shut down, there is more westerly momentum across the NPAC hence the eastward/flatter block.

Or “technically”, it’s the fact less momentum is being removed vs earlier runs due to changes in the pattern over Asia.

[AlTahoe]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interestingly 2022/23 is almost the perfect SST “anti-log”, if there ever was such a thing. Maybe just run with the opposite of whatever pattern set in last winter? Lazy but it might work.  

In which case, it’ll be 80°F here on Christmas Eve, since last year was our coldest one on record (but snowless as usual).

Could be the case. All the other strong east based El Ninos are pretty wet for Tahoe in Oct, Nov. This year is tracking 1986-1987 so far with ridging being shown through the rest of Nov. 

Last week all the models and ensembles showed a lot of rain and snow for us which has evaporated to nothing now. 

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

D**n, man. Sorry to hear that. Yeah, the ruptured disc definitely goes beyond the adjustment world. Hope they get to the bottom of it soon.

Thank you brother. Just trying to keep myself as distracted as possible. Watching stupid YouTube videos, playing online chess. and tracking the weather is all I can do right now.  

And the degree of gratitude I feel toward my girlfriend for taking care of me cannot be understated. What a saint. If there is proof god exists, it’s her.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Could be the case. All the other strong east based El Ninos are pretty wet for Tahoe in Oct, Nov. This year is tracking 1986-1987 so far with ridging being shown through the rest of Nov. 

Last week all the models and ensembles showed a lot of rain and snow for us which has evaporated to nothing now. 

That blows. At least niño STJ climo becomes more consistent towards January, right?

[The Winter Warlock]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Thank you brother. Just trying to keep myself as distracted as possible. Watching stupid YouTube videos, playing online chess. and tracking the weather is all I can do right now.  

And the degree of gratitude I feel toward my girlfriend for taking care of me cannot be understated. What a saint. If there is proof god exists, it’s her.

Hope you feel better man. I ate CBD/THC edibles to get through my pain before surgery. Since you are on the couch, might as well melt into it. Best of luck.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well if this winter is the opposite of last then we'll have a great late December and early January. 

[Phil]

Boo.

https://x.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1724182289251188774?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, fubario said:

Pretty sure there's only "one downside" if Yellowstone pops off. lol

Good point, there is one other downside, that is a really beautiful part of the country, and it would be a shame for it to get wrecked.

But hey, Mt. St Helens bounced back relatively quick, so there's that.

[Chewbacca Defense]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Boo.

https://x.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1724182289251188774?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

So....does this count as a cancel or un-cancel?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Chewbacca Defense said:

So....does this count as a cancel or un-cancel?

Both

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

So....does this count as a cancel or un-cancel?

In +ENSO a raging PV tilts the odds towards warm/wet, all else being equal. Of course all else is not equal, so that’s not *always* the case.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

In +ENSO a raging PV tilts the odds towards warm/wet, all else being equal. Of course all else is not equal, so that’s not *always* the case.

I'd take warm and wet over whatever this is the next couple of weeks. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'd take warm and wet over whatever this is the next couple of weeks. 

It may morph into that with future runs. I don’t know.

Personally I’d rather it feel like winter. Warm, tropical rain is already the default here for half of the year. Redundant. 

[MossMan]

So for next week I went from the 2nd shade of grey, to the 2nd shade of blue, to Pepto madness, back to blue, and now back to that stupid white color of nothingness in a span of 2 days! 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Atleast the drunk 18z had a few good ensembles, and a insane ensemble giving me a high temperature of -9.3F on November 25th.

 

Not looking good but it still isn't over.

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

14 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Atleast the drunk 18z had a few good ensembles, and a insane ensemble giving me a high temperature of -9.3F on November 25th.

 

Not looking good but it still isn't over.

 

A day ago it looked great. I’m sure we will have some back and forth

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

That blows. At least niño STJ climo becomes more consistent towards January, right?

Usually yes. But years like 1991-1992 and 1986-1987 were extreme drought years in California. 

[Deweydog]

BRAKING NEWS

meatyorological winter will begin two weeks from Friday whether we cancel it or not.

[Phishy Wx]

take another nap folks

or a lap, either way, this ain't it

on the bright side you now have more time to get up all the Leaves

 

[High Desert Mat?]

5 hours ago, RentonHill said:

Super fuzz 

Great movie in the early 80’s. Lol. Ernest Borgnine I believe. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

3 hours ago, runninthruda206 said:

**** man I'm going to Calgary/banff for thanksgiving and was hoping to experience negative numbers for the first time!!! 

Sucks that you can't be there when there's sub zero temps, but hey atleast you get to be there in winter! I've spent 4 winter seasons working at Lake Louise Ski resort, and it was the most beautiful ski resort I've ever worked at, Banff is such a amazing area. I remember being there in January 1997 when it got to -40ish, can't remember what it exactly got down to, it was really darn cold!

 

Hope you have a great trip up there!

[MossMan]

I’m now behind 2018 and 2021…But still ahead of 2022! Was going to put them up this weekend before the massive blast…But I guess there is no hurry now. 

[High Desert Mat?]

Question for the stat gurus on here. Is there a correlation with Enso and SSW events? Thinking this winter will take a strong event to get us the goods here in the pnw. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Mark Nelsen posted this 1981 storm. I remember this storm only because my brother and I went hunting with my dad and uncle that Saturday. We woke up early in the morning and the power was out. The drive to the Coast was very interesting...lol. We drove up to a hill along the Coast (I don't remember what hill we were on) but I do remember being able to see the Ocean from the hill. I remember the winds were very strong. I think that's when I really got interested in the weather too. Great storm 🌧

[Deweydog]

29 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Mark Nelsen posted this 1981 storm. I remember this storm only because my brother and I went hunting with my dad and uncle that Saturday. We woke up early in the morning and the power was out. The drive to the Coast was very interesting...lol. We drove up to a hill along the Coast (I don't remember what hill we were on) but I do remember being able to see the Ocean from the hill. I remember the winds were very strong. I think that's when I really got interested in the weather too. Great storm 🌧

I distinctly remember this one as well, riding around in the middle seat in my dad’s brown Chevy Scottsdale and surveying the aftermath that Saturday afternoon. My mom still has pix of the jetty damage and debris on the 101 between Fort Columbia and the Megler Bridge. They’ve made improvements to that jetty since then, but there hasn’t been another storm that’s produced as much debris as that one did. I think there was a significant westerly component to the wind which probably aided that process.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Question for the stat gurus on here. Is there a correlation with Enso and SSW events? Thinking this winter will take a strong event to get us the goods here in the pnw. 

There are correlations between ENSO phases when factoring in QBO and solar wind-geomagnetic activity. Together this can affect the type, timing, and frequency of SSW events

Below are some older images by Sam Lillo that I think put things into easier perspective. His MQI index is basically a phase diagram representing stages of QBO evolution, with SSW events plotted with respect to MQI.

Right now, we’re basically at the bottom of the phase diagram, somewhere in phase-2. In terms of +ENSO years, we’re closely following 1986/87, 2009/10, 2014/15, 1991/92, and 1976/77, while running a tad behind 1972/73 and 1965/66.

However, these years have significant internal differences w/rt their ENSO structure, stratospheric ozone/MC, solar cycle, etc, so this alone doesn’t indicate any of them are applicable analogs.

Anyways, below are his plots of SSW climatology for said MQI phases. Interestingly, phase-2 has a heavy -AO skew, and there are a higher percentage of split/W2 type SSWs later in phase-3 & phase-4, which is where we’re headed late winter into spring.

[GHweatherChris]

This winter is gonna be a wild card!

Edited November 14, 2023 by GHweatherChris

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM wasn’t horrible.