11/19 - 11/22 Arklatex Low - Great Lakes/OHV Cutter???

[Tom]

Here we go....this will be our First Deep S Plains Low that ejects out of the CO Rockies,  near the TX PanHandle, thru OK/TX and begins to really strengthen into a potential significant Arklatex Low.  While there is some uncertainly on the systems track and intensity, it should be a formidable storm that will drop some beneficial moisture across the C & S Plains into the MW/GL's region.  Ya'll ready???

 

 

[Iceresistance]

Just saw this from a Discord server, TORNADO THREAT!? Red is 500 mb wind direction, and purple is 850 mb wind direction

[jaster220]

21 minutes ago, Tom said:

Here we go....this will be our First Deep S Plains Low that ejects out of the CO Rockies,  near the TX PanHandle, thru OK/TX and begins to really strengthen into a potential significant Arklatex Low.  While there is some uncertainly on the systems track and intensity, it should be a formidable storm that will drop some beneficial moisture across the C & S Plains into the MW/GL's region.  Ya'll ready???

 

 

Strong Nov storms do have a pretty good history of coming around again during winter. It's a GL's tradition - let's do this.

Meanwhile, this morning's map stuck out to me. I cannot recall ever seeing a regular Storm Warning (non-tropical) down in the FL/Bahamas region. Just another sign of this anomalous season?

[jaster220]

Looking at the latest global runs, all 3 have a strengthening SLP of roughly mid-990's around/near The Mitt Tuesday the 21st into Wednesday the 22nd. GEM likes a more western track shooting up over ORD and is the most aggressive with the cold air push and interaction. Thus the better event for LES belts. The Euro was heading that way with track, but latest run went further east more over DTX or even CLE like the GFS has been insistent on showing. Latest EC is showing the cold air advancing more rapidly than prior runs so that's a move in the dynamic direction. Would not be outta the question being later November and by climo that the UP and/or NMI higher elevations could be in for an early season smack-down. 

 

 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Looking at the latest global runs, all 3 have a strengthening SLP of roughly mid-990's around/near The Mitt Tuesday the 21st into Wednesday the 22nd. GEM likes a more western track shooting up over ORD and is the most aggressive with the cold air push and interaction. Thus the better event for LES belts. The Euro was heading that way with track, but latest run went further east more over DTX like the GFS has been insistent on showing. Latest EC is showing the cold air advancing more rapidly than prior runs so that's a move in the dynamic direction. Would not be outta the question being later November and by climo that the UP and/or NMI higher elevations could be in for an early season smack-down. 

 

 

The GFS showing a nice little drink of water down here I will take it!

[westMJim]

20 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Looking at the latest global runs, all 3 have a strengthening SLP of roughly mid-990's around/near The Mitt Tuesday the 21st into Wednesday the 22nd

It is still too early to say for sure (and I believe that posting storms on here is the sign of death for a storm) Any way this could be this years November storm. We shall see. It may turn out to be nothing. 

[tStacsh]

2 minutes ago, westMJim said:

It is still too early to say for sure (and I believe that posting storms on here is the sign of death for a storm) Any way this could be this years November storm. We shall see. It may turn out to be nothing. 

As usual, it's looking like a possible LES event for our area.  Pretty decent setup possible as well with more west based winds.    Then it looks to  get cold and dry afterword.  

[jaster220]

19 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

As usual, it's looking like a possible LES event for our area.  Pretty decent setup possible as well with more west based winds.    Then it looks to  get cold and dry afterword.  

Must we always finish on a down note? I'm taking one system at a time myself.

12z GEM has moved in the direction of the other globals and has bumped the SLP more towards EMI track. It also deepens it rapidly to a 982 mb SLP a bit east of The Sault. 

[gabel23]

50 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The GFS showing a nice little drink of water down here I will take it!

Need this so bad! We are starving for moisture in my area. I haven't seen over an 1" of rain in over 2 months. 

[jaster220]

APX's AFD making hints on next week's potential

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Possibly colder with lake effect snow
showers by Wednesday.

Mean trough is expected to slide east of the region by Monday as
well-defined split flow takes up residence over central North
America.  Yesterday in the space we discussed the debate between
northern and southern stream dominance...could end up being a bit of
a hybrid with southern branch development that phases with the
northern branch into a full latitude trough by midweek.  There are a
few EPS members holding out of not much of a northern branch trough
at all and are all in on the southern branch amplification.  But the
phased idea would certainly be a much colder trend to the forecast
heading into Thanksgiving.

Don`t think the forecast trends change all that much during the
extended period this forecast cycle.  High pressure settles in by
Monday with southern Plains cyclogenesis likely turning the weather
more unsettled Tuesday if this system tracks in our general
direction.  Some wintry precipitation may be in the offing by
Wednesday especially of the lake convective variety.

[Tom]

54 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Must we always finish on a down note? I'm taking one system at a time myself.

12z GEM has moved in the direction of the other globals and has bumped the SLP more towards EMI track. It also deepens it rapidly to a 982 mb SLP a bit east of The Sault. 

#Bombogenesis...1006mb down to 982mb in 24 hours....

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, Tom said:

#Bombogenesis...1006mb down to 982mb in 24 hours....

Good catch amigo! I failed to recognize that while reviewing so many runs. 

[jaster220]

GRR overnight:

There appears to finally be a trend towards a consensus on the
track of the sfc low early next week. The 00Z Nov 15th ECMWF began
a trend that its later runs and now the OOZ Nov 16th GFS have
followed with a more amplified solution resulting in a deepening
low tracking across SE Lower Michigan Tuesday night.

As for sensible weather...it looks like rain, possibly heavy, can
be expected Tuesday into Tuesday night before cold air rushes in
on the backside of the low, changing the rain to snow by
Wednesday. Latest trends have arctic air with 850 mb temps of
minus 14C moving in for later Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day,
when lake effect snow showers should be ongoing.

Given the time range and the fact that this trend is fairly recent,
there remains enough uncertainty in snow shower potential to hold
off messaging potential holiday travel impact`s until forecast
confidence increases.

[Hoosier]

Been waiting for a good Fall blow.  Haven't really had one yet and hopefully this one won't weaken as time approaches.

[jaster220]

Marquette watching this closely. Cannot help but find similarities to last years Christmas system and it's track and subsequent LES outbreak.

The aforementioned clipper system digs toward the base of an East
Coast trough resulting in synoptic scale pattern amplification going
into early next week. By Monday evening, intense surface ridging
extends along the west coast with more modest ridging across New
England. Polar and subtropical upper level troughs and associated
surface lows will be squeezed between the coastal ridges. These lows
are increasingly likely to undergo a complex phasing interaction on
Tuesday that results in a very deep closed upper low near the
Ontario/Quebec provincial line by Wednesday evening. Spatial and
timing differences in this phasing interaction critically effect the
surface low track, intensity, and subsequent weather impacts.
Overall, ensembles indicate a surface low tracking from Arkansas on
Monday evening to the Upper Great Lakes or Ontario by Tuesday
evening. Spread among EPS ensemble members decreased substantially
over the past two model runs with the latest 00z guidance
advertising a mean SLP of 997 mb near Manitoulin Island compared
with a 1008 mb low near Saginaw Bay on yesterdays 12z run. This
substantial change appears to be a result of substantially less
spatial spread is low pressure location. Quite a few EPS members
show a sub-990 mb low pressure so the trend toward a deeper and
farther north surface low may not be over yet, but Canadian and GFS
ensemble means are generally weaker and farther southeast. While
details of the synoptic scale precipitation potential remain murky,
850mb temps decrease from around 0C Monday night to near or below
-10C by Wednesday morning. This progression suggests an elevation
dependent rain/snow mix early on that gradually transitions to all
snow with lake enhancement or pure lake effect by Wednesday morning.
The location of the deep upper low implies LES focused within NW to
W wind snow belts and EPS probabilities of at least 6 inches of snow
by Thanksgiving morning have increased to the 40-60% range for
favored lake effect snow belts. Folks with holiday travel plans
should closely monitor forecast updates and perhaps consider
contingency plans.

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Must we always finish on a down note? I'm taking one system at a time myself.

12z GEM has moved in the direction of the other globals and has bumped the SLP more towards EMI track. It also deepens it rapidly to a 982 mb SLP a bit east of The Sault. 

Just noting the massive HP that builds down the Plains in some runs.   Wasn't a negative, but supports maybe a stronger storm.  

[tStacsh]

Can't help but remember when I got 2 feet of snow over 3 days off a similar set up in November of last year.  And of course 2014 (Though that was a much colder setup) This time of year with a west wind favors inland (colder) areas around my area.  

We shall see how this plays out.  But it seems winter will make an appearance here by Wednesday of next week.   A white thanksgiving looks possible. 

[jaster220]

"But it seems winter will make an appearance here by Wednesday of next week."

18z GFS joined the GEM with the further west track (which you want ofc), while the Euro so far today was the further east yet the strongest which makes less sense imho. Let the model battle begin.  Either way, the globals have a consensus strong SLP so a lack of high winds on today's CPC hazards map is odd.

Wed 7 am

[Clinton]

58 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

"But it seems winter will make an appearance here by Wednesday of next week."

18z GFS joined the GEM with the further west track (which you want ofc), while the Euro so far today was the further east yet the strongest which makes less sense imho. Let the model battle begin.  Either way, the globals have a consensus strong SLP so a lack of high winds on today's CPC hazards map is odd.

Wed 7 am

Not a bad look from the GFS

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Not a bad look from the GFS

Marquette mentioned this afternoon that there are still a group of ens members taking a more easterly/less phased path. You wouldn't know it looking at the Op would you? I wish all that backside blue over mby was legit, but the globals notoriously over-do that due to poor resolution. The darker shades along the west side of MI are the real deal LES. Pretty sure if you looked back at last Dec 23rd's maps, you would find one with almost a carbon-copy look. 

[Clinton]

10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Marquette mentioned this afternoon that there are still a group of ens members taking a more easterly/less phased path. You wouldn't know it looking at the Op would you? I wish all that backside blue over mby was legit, but the globals notoriously over-do that due to poor resolution. The darker shades along the west side of MI are the real deal LES. Pretty sure if you looked back at last Dec 23rd's maps, you would find one with almost a carbon-copy look. 

Kind of a tough needle to thread for ya.  The CMC is northern stream dominate, less phased and further east but can't wrap in enough cold air.

[Hawkeye]

Aannnd, it's gone.

[GDR]

Have we ever seen this scenario before?

[Niko]

A very busy holiday travel week is coming up and all we need is a big storm to disrupt travel. I'd say, we let this one go and have safe weather conditions for everyone traveling, whether by car or by air. Whaaa do ya say Ma Nature??!! 

If I were to guess, Id say  S MI gets rainfall and then some real cold air behind the system w/ very strong winds and scattered snowshowers wrapping around this low.

So, I just saw that my highs have a potential behind this storm to be in the 20s to maybe 30F and lows in the teens for late next week. Yikes! Thanksgiving Day looks quite cold and Black Friday looks colder.

[Tom]

Is this just a period of Medium Range Mayhem or can this storm phase?  I'm seeing something on the ensembles that show some concern of a later phase due to a more positive tilted trough and the secondary 500mb energy dragging its feet a bit.  There are 2 pieces of energy: 1) Over KS/NE.   2) The main southern 500mb vortex that tracks through the 4 corners into TX/OK.

0z GFS...this would be the best case scenario for a Bomb...

 

 

The Euro is showing a later phase bc its more + tilted longer in the run and phases farther east and more northern stream dominant.  We could see this southern energy eject out a bit quicker so it can phase better with the Northern stream.  The 06z Euro run is sorta showing that and as more data comes in over the next couple days we may see it shift farther west.  Needless to say, this is a fascinating storm to track over the Holiday season.

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Is this just a period of Medium Range Mayhem or can this storm phase?  I'm seeing something on the ensembles that show some concern of a later phase due to a more positive tilted trough and the secondary 500mb energy dragging its feet a bit.  There are 2 pieces of energy: 1) Over KS/NE.   2) The main southern 500mb vortex that tracks through the 4 corners into TX/OK.

0z GFS...this would be the best case scenario for a Bomb...

 

 

The Euro is showing a later phase bc its more + tilted longer in the run and phases farther east and more northern stream dominant.  We could see this southern energy eject out a bit quicker so it can phase better with the Northern stream.  The 06z Euro run is sorta showing that and as more data comes in over the next couple days we may see it shift farther west.  Needless to say, this is a fascinating storm to track over the Holiday season.

 

Most likely what CPC was leaning towards yesterday and why their map only showed high-wind risk east of here. IF this will be a big winter for storms in the MA and New England it would make sense imo. As you say, at least we have something interesting follow regardless of how it plays out. 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

A very busy holiday travel week is coming up and all we need is a big storm to disrupt travel. I'd say, we let this one go and have safe weather conditions for everyone traveling, whether by car or by air. Whaaa do ya say Ma Nature??!! 

If I were to guess, Id say  S MI gets rainfall and then some real cold air behind the system w/ very strong winds and scattered snowshowers wrapping around this low.

So, I just saw that my highs have a potential behind this storm to be in the 20s to maybe 30F and lows in the teens for late next week. Yikes! Thanksgiving Day looks quite cold and Black Friday looks colder.

We had that last Christmas right? I don't think it was that big of an issue tbh. Trying to force nature into our convenient timelines really diminishes the excitement factor. I mean, the unpredictability (though less and less as technology advances) of the phenomenon is a large part of the fascination. At least to me, and I think others as well. Just take the post @CentralNebWeather made of fond memories of being snowed-in at Grandma's place as a prime example. 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Is this just a period of Medium Range Mayhem or can this storm phase?  I'm seeing something on the ensembles that show some concern of a later phase due to a more positive tilted trough and the secondary 500mb energy dragging its feet a bit.  There are 2 pieces of energy: 1) Over KS/NE.   2) The main southern 500mb vortex that tracks through the 4 corners into TX/OK.

0z GFS...this would be the best case scenario for a Bomb...

 

 

The Euro is showing a later phase bc its more + tilted longer in the run and phases farther east and more northern stream dominant.  We could see this southern energy eject out a bit quicker so it can phase better with the Northern stream.  The 06z Euro run is sorta showing that and as more data comes in over the next couple days we may see it shift farther west.  Needless to say, this is a fascinating storm to track over the Holiday season.

 

12z GFS says "what phase?" LOL 

@westMJim for the win:  "It is still too early to say for sure (and I believe that posting storms on here is the sign of death for a storm)

Models beyond 72 hrs really are lost, at least with phasing. Sigh

[tStacsh]

Well that's that.  Just a shredded out wave without even much cold air behind it.   bummer.   Canadian went bye bye as well.  The one after will be the one to watch.

[Niko]

29 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Well that's that.  Just a shredded out wave without even much cold air behind it.   bummer.   Canadian went bye bye as well.  The one after will be the one to watch.

I have my eyes set on middle of December.........

[Niko]

32 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

12z GFS says "what phase?" LOL 

@westMJim for the win:  "It is still too early to say for sure (and I believe that posting storms on here is the sign of death for a storm)

Models beyond 72 hrs really are lost, at least with phasing. Sigh

@westMJim could be right!!! lol

[GDR]

Just wait a couple weeks 

[jaster220]

14 minutes ago, GDR said:

Just wait a couple weeks 

The Biggie is always "10 days out". LOL gonna b a long winter if this is any precedent.

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

The Biggie is always "10 days out". LOL gonna b a long winter if this is any precedent.

I swear they formulate these longer range models to show us the goods for clicks.   Wouldn't surprise me.  

[jaster220]

17 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I swear they formulate these longer range models to show us the goods for clicks.   Wouldn't surprise me.  

Sure makes one wonder LOL. If there were a small *asterisk at the bottom with a disclaimer, it would probably read something like "*Model portrayals beyond 48hrs are highly suspect, but since we are in the business of providing the longest possible lead-time for any potentially life-threatening weather we feel it is far better to be safe than sorry"

Their goal is to eliminate any and all surprises possible on behalf of Joe Public. For us hobbyists it ends up being the most cruel way of getting the job done. I'm sure the Met's be it NWS et al are repeatedly reminded why this is the plan. You can tell by the NWS AFD's that they take the LR modelling with many grains of salt. 

And even beyond the presumed responsibility for public safety, there's another batch of pressure via fellow governmental agencies like the MDOT's, and just general concerns of cost to commerce. I'm afraid my desire as a wx weenie flies completely counter to the better sensibilities of our modern technological advancement in meteorology. And I only see it getting worse tbh.  

[Clinton]

4 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Well that's that.  Just a shredded out wave without even much cold air behind it.   bummer.   Canadian went bye bye as well.  The one after will be the one to watch.

"The one after will be the one to watch."

I agree 100%

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

"The one after will be the one to watch."

I agree 100%

 

Hopefully, those up here don't watch that fizzle as well. I think you're safe down there riding the shirt tail of the S Plains ground zero zone. I too liked the post-Thanksgiving system best for snow chances. Now I am less sure it can hold together to be anything meaningful up my way. 

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hopefully, those up here don't watch that fizzle as well. I think you're safe down there riding the shirt tail of the S Plains ground zero zone. I too liked the post-Thanksgiving system best for snow chances. Now I am less sure it can hold together to be anything meaningful up my way. 

We need to buck that trend of storms out of the SW fizzling as the turn NE. That's been the trend since early fall.

[jaster220]

9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

We need to buck that trend of storms out of the SW fizzling as the turn NE. That's been the trend since early fall.

For sure and sometimes that is exactly what happens as we turn the corner into the new LRC. Thinking of the 04-05 analogy, I remember ofc the end of November snowstorm, but really need to go back and look at how the general precip was for SMI. I remember some warm and sunny in December.

 

 

On a side note, it's pretty impressive that the far northern burbs of Detroit have fallen into the upper 30's during this afternoon even with the sun making an appearance to finish our daylight hours. DTW had 61F overnight. 

[Clinton]

Models have slowly trended wetter for mby, a nice rainfall looks likely.