11/25 - 11/27 CO/LOW Central Plains Snow and LES

[jaster220]

Last one posting when everyone else is done with an event and moved on already. At least that's how it feels, lol.

Quote

AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1256 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2023


.AVIATION...

Precipitation was overspreading southeast MI early this afternoon as
the system moves through the Great Lakes region. It will be all snow
for MBS-FNT-PTK. Rain/snow mix for the Detroit TAF sites will change
over to all snow as the rates increase 19-20z. Ceiling will fall to
IFR as the steadier and heavier precipitation moves in. The steady
snow will continue until 23-00z and then becomes broken areas of
snow through 03-05z as the system moves north of the area. This will
also lead to the slow rising of ceilings to MVFR during the late
evening and overnight hours.

Westerly winds increase overnight night and continue into Monday
with gusts to around 25 kts.  This westerly flow with cold air
rushing in behind the front will get lake effect snow showers going,
mainly for the FNT and the Detroit area TAFs sites. Two main time
windows looking for the best chances...around daybreak Monday and
then in the afternoon. In the snow showers ceilings could fall below
1k feet and visibilities could fall to around 1 mile.

For DTW...Precipitation likely to transition to all snow around 20Z.
Looks like enough cold air will be in place to keep the
precipitation all snow even when the rates fall off around 00z. DTW
also will be near the best convergence area for lake effect snow
showers both around 12z and 21z Monday. Winds will gust to around 25
knots on Monday, but not much chance to gust any higher limiting the
threat of reaching crosswind thresholds.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High confidence in cigs aob 5000 feet through Monday.

* High confidence in precipitation transitioning to all snow by
  20-21z.

 

[mlgamer]

20 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Last one posting when everyone else is done with an event and moved on already. At least that's how it feels, lol.

 

Hey, I'm still hanging around..lol. I've learned a lot about great lakes weather, "the mitt" and LES by following you guys here. I was surprised to see you guys often have the same problems we have in Kansas...warm thermals, dry air, bad storm tracks. I use to think it just snowed around there all time. Guess not...lol. 

[Stormy]

I ended up with only 2.9" of snow. Gauge catch liquid equivalent is 0.22" while core samples yielded 0.24". It looks pretty. 

[Stormy]

4 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Hutchinson, KS got a foot, while Hesston got 11 inches.

 

What a start to winter up there, even though I had no snow, it was to be expected for nothing for me, as long as I had some rain.

Really!? That's near where my sister lives. They were saying that it looks like it snowed a quite a bit out there. They are heading home today after being here for Thanksgiving. 

[jaster220]

Most CAMs only had the RN going to SN about now. Meanwhile it continues to dump here at 32/33F and everything is turning white out there. Unless it shuts off suddenly (not per models nor that AFD) I'd say DTX's call for 0.5-<1" is in jeopardy. Hoping to join the over-performers crowd. 

[Clinton]

52 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Last one posting when everyone else is done with an event and moved on already. At least that's how it feels, lol.

 

I didn't have much to report but I'm glad your off to a good start. 

 

[Black Hole]

3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Good lord! That is a cursed Donut Hole!

The "GRR" radar name says it all lol

[jaster220]

25 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Hey, I'm still hanging around..lol. I've learned a lot about great lakes weather, "the mitt" and LES by following you guys here. I was surprised to see you guys often have the same problems we have in Kansas...warm thermals, dry air, bad storm tracks. I use to think it just snowed around there all time. Guess not...lol. 

That statement would be true for "most" of Michigan. The issues you mention mostly plague SMI, and really far SEMI (Detroit) where I've been the past 2 winters. I was just looking at historical data for max snow depths across NMI. There are few duds ofc when you can find a dry winter (either WAD or CAD), but the list of winters when a given city didn't reach at least double digit depth is really short. Almost non-existent in the snow belt regions.

For example, my last 4 winters in the Traverse Bay area, in the "slacker year" the airport only hit 27" OTG

[jaster220]

Even tho I am in Wayne cnty (far NW corner), the conditions here are more in line with this vs what they hoisted for Wayne.

[jaster220]

I really think we have to put some stock in the effects of this -QBO for the season. Not only am I getting a very robust hit of snow vs climo here, I am doing so on a SOUTH wind. I mentioned yesterday that the 850 temps were stubbornly remaining below freezing unlike numerous prior systems around here that actually tracked south of here but still had serious thermal issues aloft. 

EDIT- In the middle of the day no less

[mlgamer]

17 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That statement would be true for "most" of Michigan. The issues you mention mostly plague SMI, and really far SEMI (Detroit) where I've been the past 2 winters. I was just looking at historical data for max snow depths across NMI. There are few duds ofc when you can find a dry winter (either WAD or CAD), but the list of winters when a given city didn't reach at least double digit depth is really short. Almost non-existent in the snow belt regions.

For example, my last 4 winters in the Traverse Bay area, in the "slacker year" the airport only hit 27" OTG

That makes sense and I guess I wasn't really that far off in my original thinking. I'll make sure I avoid SEMI if I ever decide to move up that way. No more rain/snow lines for me, thanks...lol 

[Clinton]

This sounds good to me.  A shorter cycle this year is a good thing imo.

Posted by Gary Lezak

Good morning, Kansas City!

I hope you're all waking up to a beautiful winter wonderland with 3-4 inches of fresh snow. It's amazing to see the power of weather and the patterns that drive it. How much snow did you receive in your area? Share your winter wonderland photos with me!

As you enjoy this snowy scene, I want to share an exciting update with you. The weather pattern that produced this storm is part of a larger recurring cycle called the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC). And here's the fascinating part: it's likely to cycle back through our region, bringing more winter weather, around the second week of January.

The Winter Forecast comes out December 5th. 

[Iceresistance]

21 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

The "GRR" radar name says it all lol

I didn't notice that and now I can't stop laughing! XD

[jaster220]

Pavement whitening up now

[jaster220]

I know @Niko was spending his Thanksgiving holiday in the Big Apple. Prolly just as well. Looks like his place is getting screwed-over due to some warming from south winds off of the UHI plus Lk Saint Clair - uggh.

[Hawkeye]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Last one posting when everyone else is done with an event and moved on already. At least that's how it feels, lol.

 

That is somewhat true, but I want updates to continue from people farther east.  I'm not just interested in my own backyard.  I want to hear from people in both Kansas and Michigan.

[jaster220]

Wow, I know there's a front coming through, but this baro must be off. If not, we are at 983 mb 

[Stacsh]

I’ve got nothing here grass still green.  

[jaster220]

48 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I’ve got nothing here grass still green.  

I can see why you really like synoptic events (sarc)

[jaster220]

This looks like fun. Snagging 18" overnight would mean a "Snow Day" for me, lol. Yoopers prolly just commute via snow or dog sleds instead.

[jaster220]

Must be holiday hang-over or something. Only (1) report in for The Mitt so far, and it's from U of M. I'd say very similar results here so far if I had an elevated snow board.

[Stacsh]

57 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I can see why you really like synoptic events (sarc)

I got the hole today.  Still just a trace.  Snow just dies overhead.   Need some lake effect tonight.  

[Clinton]

Storm report for the KC area.

[WinterSquall23]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Must be holiday hang-over or something. Only (1) report in for The Mitt so far, and it's from U of M. I'd say very similar results here so far if I had an elevated snow board.

Downtown Detroit, flakes a flying.! 

[jaster220]

Went out to get take-out dinner. Snow gently falling, snow OTG, right a 32F with the roads just a bit slushy. All the holiday lights were on and sparkling magic with snow on the trees. I think it's one of the snowiest Thanksgiving holidays I've personally had. We lucked out here with that clipper 2 years ago. Besides tonight, that's the only other snowy one of the last decade.

[Up_north_MI]

9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Went out to get take-out dinner. Snow gently falling, snow OTG, right a 32F with the roads just a bit slushy. All the holiday lights were on and sparkling magic with snow on the trees. I think it's one of the snowiest Thanksgiving holidays I've personally had. We lucked out here with that clipper 2 years ago. Besides tonight, that's the only other snowy one of the last decade.

We just left my mom’s place a little north east of Lapeer, they have 3” to 3.5” easily there. Roads are bad with a few cars in ditches. We did see a few plow trucks out though so hopefully they’ll get the main roads cleaned up. Calling for some decent lake effect in northern MI the next couple days which isn’t unusual for this time of year. Many areas could  see double digits by Tuesday.

[jaster220]

On 11/24/2023 at 9:51 PM, Clinton said:

0z NAM is wetter and a nice snow for the KC area.

I see this map was thru Tues 7 am. So far, part 1 has performed better than expected here. Let's see how part 2 LES plays out and whether I can end up scoring the 2+ shown on this map. Will all come down to getting lucky with a streamer like last November. 

[WinterSquall23]

Just came home. Snowing hard in Detroit.  Started to stick around Dearborn on the grass.  Really started to pick up in intensity north of 15 mile. We got about 2” in Milford. Not to shabby of a storm. 

 

[hawkstwelve]

Kansas is the biggest winner of this round, at least through 6pm tonight. Otherwise, a decent swath of 2-6 inches. Not too shabby.

[Tom]

After reading through all your comments, this was certainly a "share the wealth" kinda storm...some big winners and some nasso much, but in the end, it did deliver some good white gold across the country.  Many of you who were fortunate to receive a nice snow day over the holiday and I'm sure you enjoyed it with the family!  Congrats to the big winners in KS and the KC area.  How about we track some more heading into DEC?  Lesss go!

[tStacsh]

I got about 1/4" to 1/2" total.   Not even much Lake effect so far.   Maybe a slight uptick today with some banding type LES, but not looking at much accumulation.  Kind of disappointed, but it's only November so not too worried yet.   

[Black Hole]

22 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Classic annoyance 

I wanted to come back to this. You may already know this, but if not, this is a classic signal of low level dry air. In fact, it probably was not precipitating across most of the area at this time, but since the radar beam increases with height its just seeing that its snowing or raining aloft. If precip continues long enough it can saturate from the top down and then that hole would fill in. 

[gabel23]

21 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Absolute comical how the drought continues to show its ugly face. You can't make that up; nice solid strip of nothing right thru my area. Looks like things will only get worse around here if storms continue to do this. 

[tStacsh]

36 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

I wanted to come back to this. You may already know this, but if not, this is a classic signal of low level dry air. In fact, it probably was not precipitating across most of the area at this time, but since the radar beam increases with height its just seeing that its snowing or raining aloft. If precip continues long enough it can saturate from the top down and then that hole would fill in. 

It was actually snowing very hard in those bands Just NW of the hole, but probably not as much  E/SE of it.   They had 1-2 inches before I saw my first flake.     But that was due to LEH.    

I do like that radar view though, because it is very accurate to watch is actually falling at the surface within 20 miles of the radar site, which I'm NW of by about 7 miles.  Obviously as the beam goes out and up it catches more reflection to what is not reaching the ground and in the cloud layer. 

I despise the combined radar views.  Was burned many times growing up watching the radar in the 80's and 90's and being like WHY IS IT NOT SNOWING IT SHOWS IT IS!!!!

[Andie]

29* this morning in DFW.  Sunny.  
A good deal of rain Saturday.  Much appreciated.  Spent a lot of it on the road.  

[Black Hole]

8 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

It was actually snowing very hard in those bands Just NW of the hole, but probably not as much  E/SE of it.   They had 1-2 inches before I saw my first flake.     But that was due to LEH.    

I do like that radar view though, because it is very accurate to watch is actually falling at the surface within 20 miles of the radar site, which I'm NW of by about 7 miles.  Obviously as the beam goes out and up it catches more reflection to what is not reaching the ground and in the cloud layer. 

I despise the combined radar views.  Was burned many times growing up watching the radar in the 80's and 90's and being like WHY IS IT NOT SNOWING IT SHOWS IT IS!!!!

Indeed, if there was better low level moisture over there that would make sense! But I used to have the same problem all the time when I lived in Utah. We'd get rain shadowed from certain wind directions. The radar was positioned like 2-3k ft above the valley and so it would overshoot by a considerable margin and we'd frequently have it show precip when nothing was happening. There were even times with widespread yellows and there was still nothing reaching the ground lol 

[MIKEKC]

I was out of town for the snow event in KC, spent Thanksgiving week in Scottsdale, Az. However, I watched it on radar and it appeared KC was going to get into the heavier stuff, but, in the end, KC had about 2-3 inches for most, maybe a few higher totals. (I only had 2.1 inches at my house and officially KC was a total of 2.2.  Flying back yesterday, you certainly could see the thicker snow cover over south central/eastern KS. areas. 7-10 inches fell. 

It was a beautiful winter scene when I returned. Let's hope we see many more this winter. 

[Grizzcoat]

Don't think any IA peeps have posted this yet-- not bad at all for many on this forum-

[Tom]

@jaster220, you having fun up there near Traverse City?  I think that's where you said you'll be heading.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@jaster220, you having fun up there near Traverse City?  I think that's where you said you'll be heading.

Thx @Tom

Actually, it was more the center of the Northland and I happened to pass very close to the APX office in Waters, MI where winter was in full swing. 21F with on/off +SHSN (not quite squall level). WC's with the snow were bitter and iced my entire windshield over during the 20 mins I was taking a lunch break at Panera. Plenty of snow blowers getting a workout with 5 to 6" down by early pm. I missed my AWD 300C. It was a day when it would've been worth the extra $$ that ride cost, lol.