DECEMBER 2023 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

DTX- Still, the exact timing of the infusion of cold air and
position of the deformation axis remains uncertain as we sort out
the interaction of the 3 strong upper level waves/troughs
(Missouri/northern Florida/Central Canada).

 

Since we are 0 for 2 on these phaser scenarios, we should wait until we can see the white's of it's eyes before pulling the trigger on any thread! Could just be another in a series of teases, or it could actually trend back east and really then only @chescowxman would be interested in a thread, lol. 

[jaster220]

17 minutes ago, Tom said:

Yup, I was thinking about this scenario back in NOV when I saw this same pattern develop as a double barrel low inundated Florida and then tracked up the East Coast.  This year's LRC pattern is golden for a scenario like this to show up again this winter or even Spring.

And I'd almost go so far as to say, that if we do see a massive flood of polar air at some point (see Russia today), I would think another Feb 1899 scenario isn't totally unrealistic.

[jaster220]

Means nothing at this range, but the ICON shows much more precip back in the cold side including lake effect/enhancement for many parts of the GLs. 

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Means nothing at this range, but the ICON shows much more precip back in the cold side including lake effect/enhancement for many parts of the GLs. 

This system has def turned some heads out East...I think you guys in Lower MI may score something of interest, whether it be high winds or a bit of wrap around light snows?  Just a little reminder that this years pattern has big potential withs systems that track near the OHV/MW/Lakes.  I'm certainly more intrigued with the data coming in that is leading up for a busy period from the Solstice thru the Holidays.  There is alot more blocking starting to show up over W NAMER/NE PAC which I kinda was leaning towards around a week ago.

[tStacsh]

Oooh, might get a lake effect Flurry or two next monday.  Woohoo!   Looks like a warm storm moving up the Apps or EC.  Flooding rain looks likely.  

[mlgamer]

For MBY... after my rain chances the next couple of days, I don't see any *significant* precip chances here till around Jan 9/10 based on the observed pattern. I'm not buying any big storms in my area through the end of the year into early January. As usual, would be glad to be wrong.

[OttumwaSnomow]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Can't help but think of the Infamous Mach 1993 "Storm of the Century"....the track is almost identical...is there a repeat lurking??

 

I was in Pennsylvania  mountains  mid dec 1992.. we had 2 giant systems  that winter. The dec 10-12 low and the superstorm in march 1993. The dec 1992 system  was  brutal, slow moving. I measured  44" on a mountaintop  near my home. But only 5 to 10" snow  with 2 to 3 inches rain on top in the valleys! I will never  forget the national news shots from Breezewood, Pa as they were burried in 40 to 50 inches of snow. Flat roofs  were overwhelmed and  i helped  local grocery  stores etc  to clean up the mess. My only hope is that this strong el nino somehow leads to a wet  summer 2024?  Dont need a iowa 1993 but we desperately  need some heavy precip.

[tStacsh]

Observation, if you add it up, I've had more frost accumulation this year than snow.  Loving the sunshine when we get it.  Which isn't much, but seems to be more than normal.  

 

[Minny_Weather]

I'll probably receive actual, real, snowflakes tomorrow night into Saturday morning!

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Can't help but think of the Infamous Mach 1993 "Storm of the Century"....the track is almost identical...is there a repeat lurking??

 

1993 hugged the coast more.  That progged track is sort of a hybrid between the 93 storm and the early Nov 1966 storm.  Of course the final track could change as this setup is a bit complex.

[westMJim]

51 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Observation, if you add it up, I've had more frost accumulation this year than snow.  Loving the sunshine when we get it.  Which isn't much, but seems to be more than normal.  

 

Here is a forecast you just do not see around here but it is in the forecast.

Like you said we have had more frost than snow. And yes it has been much more sunny that usual

[mlgamer]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Can't help but think of the Infamous Mach 1993 "Storm of the Century"....the track is almost identical...is there a repeat lurking??

 

Seeing that low spin up in the gulf on the models made me think of the 1993 superstorm as well.

Interestingly, Topeka had set it's daily snowfall record of 15.2" two months earlier on January 9, 1993 with a storm total of 17"-19" around the area.

Winter in early 1993 had some exciting weather for sure!

[hawkstwelve]

Well the Christmas Eve/Christmas storm has turned into mostly cold rain on the GFS, at least for my area. Oh joy.

[gimmesnow]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well the Christmas Eve/Christmas storm has turned into mostly cold rain on the GFS, at least for my area. Oh joy.

I was thinking of stopping at Terry Peak on a snowboard trip but the way things are going I better wait until February. Dang

[Hoosier]

lol, system at the end of the 12z GFS is almost a repeat of this weekend's system, but just a bit colder.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I was in Pennsylvania  mountains  mid dec 1992.. we had 2 giant systems  that winter. The dec 10-12 low and the superstorm in march 1993. The dec 1992 system  was  brutal, slow moving. I measured  44" on a mountaintop  near my home. But only 5 to 10" snow  with 2 to 3 inches rain on top in the valleys! I will never  forget the national news shots from Breezewood, Pa as they were burried in 40 to 50 inches of snow. Flat roofs  were overwhelmed and  i helped  local grocery  stores etc  to clean up the mess. My only hope is that this strong el nino somehow leads to a wet  summer 2024?  Dont need a iowa 1993 but we desperately  need some heavy precip.

This is what I'm yearning for since I moved out here to Arizona and being able to travel to a mountain range nearby.  I'm hopeful that there will be a strong system I can plan to go up and hunker down for a few days and enjoy a massive snowstorm.  Storms of the magnitude you mentioned are common for the Sierra's every season, but to get to experience 2 in a winter season is so dang lucky livng in PA!

[hawkstwelve]

Well this would be a pleasant surprise... 

[Hoosier]

12z Euro went more coastal hugger with the upcoming storm.

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, mlgamer said:

For MBY... after my rain chances the next couple of days, I don't see any *significant* precip chances here till around Jan 9/10 based on the observed pattern. I'm not buying any big storms in my area through the end of the year into early January. As usual, would be glad to be wrong.

 

2 hours ago, mlgamer said:

Seeing that low spin up in the gulf on the models made me think of the 1993 superstorm as well.

Interestingly, Topeka had set it's daily snowfall record of 15.2" two months earlier on January 9, 1993 with a storm total of 17"-19" around the area.

Winter in early 1993 had some exciting weather for sure!

Yeah, but didn't you already get a big storm? Thought Topeka was like ground-zero back in late November?

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

12z Euro went more coastal hugger with the upcoming storm.

Really think that's just the way to go this season. Models are trash over-hyping any phase potential just to trend non/late phased. (sigh)

[jaster220]

Seems like 12z Euro would be threatening some non-tropical Dec low-barometer readings for way down there

[mlgamer]

9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

 

Yeah, but didn't you already get a big storm? Yes! Thought Topeka was like ground-zero back in late November? Yes-Nov 25/26! Of course, I was speaking from *now* until the end of the year!

 

8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Really think that's just the way to go this season. Models are trash over-hyping any phase potential just to trend non/late phased. (sigh)

Yep! Model over-hype and the LRC is why I'm thinking Jan 9/10 may be my next chance of anything above flurries or sprinkles! But that eastern storm looks like a doozy so at least something interesting is going on...lol

[tStacsh]

9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Seems like 12z Euro would be threatening some non-tropical Dec low-barometer readings for way down there

I'm rooting for a deeper further east EC low at this point.  With a nice little strong shortwave diving in behind it would bring colder air and at least 1.5 days of NEAR winter weather before ridging and warmer weather settles back in.  

[Hoosier]

21 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Seems like 12z Euro would be threatening some non-tropical Dec low-barometer readings for way down there

It would, if these very deep solutions pan out.  December pressure records down in that region are generally in the mid 980s to low 990s.

[Minny_Weather]

AFD from MPX:

Quote

Unfortunately for
those who are enjoying this warm spell, change is coming. The first
signs of high clouds are beginning to stream into southwestern
Minnesota from a strong system that is bringing snow to portions of
New Mexico, Colorado, and Kansas. Cloud cover will increase this
evening and through the overnight hours. With a strong LLJ and this
increase in moisture, an area of showers may develop across west
central Minnesota and lift northward overnight. The main southern
trough will continue to dig into the Southern Plains and gradually
lift to the northeast while the northern stream of the jet drops a
shortwave across the Dakotas tomorrow. The phasing between these two
features will be the focus for precip from Friday afternoon through
early Saturday. Rain will develop and increase in coverage across
the northern half of Minnesota during the afternoon and spread
southward across the remainder of the forecast area. Over the past
couple runs, there has been a noticeable upward trend in QPF
amounts across all the global models. However, this trend was
not well reflected in the NBM. Adjusted QPF up a little across
central and eastern Minnesota (mainly during the 00-06z Saturday
time period), but would not be surprised to see another jump
upwards with the next forecast package. For now, precip totals
top out under a half inch across the CWA.

The other noticeable change over the last 12-24 hours revolves
around precip type. While rain will still be the main p-type
throughout the event, confidence has increased that snow will
wrap around on the back edge of this system before it pulls away
to the east. Luckily, this appears to be a purely rain-snow set
up, and without much ice aloft and warm surface temps, there is
little threat for freezing rain/drizzle. The question is how
much, if any, snow accumulation is possible. A handful 12z
ensembles, namely the ECMWF and CMC, have jumped towards a
snowier solution across western Minnesota through the Twin
Cities. This is something that will need to be closely
monitored, much like the QPF. Once this system moves out
Saturday afternoon, we will see a return of dry conditions with
temperatures still running 5-10 degrees above average.

The unfortunate thing is that I live on the very western fringe of the MPX CWA, and therefore I'm often overlooked in AFDs.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro is very bullish, holy cow.

I end up with about 4". per their solution. Even the mesoscale models are giving me about an inch, which I'll take at this point given the snow starvation all across this part of the country.

[Hoosier]

59 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

AFD from MPX:

The unfortunate thing is that I live on the very western fringe of the MPX CWA, and therefore I'm often overlooked in AFDs.

I know that feeling.  I used to live in Lafayette, IN, which is on the northwestern fringe of the IND cwa and borders the LOT and IWX areas.  Did feel left out at times but I regularly read the discussions from all 3 offices.   

[Madtown]

gonna make a mess of the rink. just an unreal  start to winter. Lack of snow is one thing, but 6 days in the 40's is nuts

[Clinton]

9 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

For Christmas Day, KC's long term average high temperature is 40 degrees.  The average for the last 10 years is 49 degrees.  That's a pretty big sample size to be 9 degrees above average. 

There may be some huge changes the next time the NWS calculates long term averages around here. 

I wonder what percentage of months have had below average temps the last 10 years. I would bet it's less than 25%

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Minny_Weather said:

AFD from MPX:

The unfortunate thing is that I live on the very western fringe of the MPX CWA, and therefore I'm often overlooked in AFDs.

So how is this NOT you??

"A handful 12z ensembles, namely the ECMWF and CMC, have jumped towards a snowier solution across western Minnesota through the Twin Cities."

[Hoosier]

38 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

For Christmas Day, KC's long term average high temperature is 40 degrees.  The average for the last 10 years is 49 degrees.  That's a pretty big sample size to be 9 degrees above average. 

There may be some huge changes the next time the NWS calculates long term averages around here. 

What is the month of December average temp over those time periods (long term and last 10 years)?

[jaster220]

I wish the ICON could win this one. 18z seems to show quite a bit of backside moisture in the form of snow. I believe it is picking up on a Huron enhancement that DTX was alluding to in their overnight AFD. NAM 12k at h84 is about as dry on the backside as could be. 

[jaster220]

@Hoosier

Ricky is onboard for yby to maybe score some flakes

Quote

In a brief change from the mild and quiet nothingness that's typified this month, a PV lobe will bring a respectable (by December 2023 standards) shot of cold air and wind for Monday-Monday night.

The Euro and EPS suggest a decent LES response with inversion heights climbing to around 700 mb, so could see some accums into the Indiana and Michigan lake effect belts. While the temps won't be anything to write home about, the wind and seasonable cold combo will certainly feel unpleasant coming off the mild stretch we've had.

 

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Hoosier

Ricky is onboard for yby to maybe score some flakes

 

Doubtful.  Think I'm too far west.

It's wild how far south this low starts forming.  Still some discrepancies, but some models have it down near the Yucatan!

[OttumwaSnomow]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

This is what I'm yearning for since I moved out here to Arizona and being able to travel to a mountain range nearby.  I'm hopeful that there will be a strong system I can plan to go up and hunker down for a few days and enjoy a massive snowstorm.  Storms of the magnitude you mentioned are common for the Sierra's every season, but to get to experience 2 in a winter season is so dang lucky livng in PA!

 

 Check  out this old twc report from Breezewood, PA.  I lived 15 miles from that  location.   Jim Cantore killed it! Lol

I think this sun mon system  could  fool some folks. It was 53F in Philadelphia  and 33F in Pittsburgh  on this report.

 

[Minny_Weather]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

So how is this NOT you??

"A handful 12z ensembles, namely the ECMWF and CMC, have jumped towards a snowier solution across western Minnesota through the Twin Cities."

I meant it generally.

[Minny_Weather]

Snow amounts here heavily depend on the changeover time from rain to snow, which unfortunately makes me think the NAM/HRRR will win out here over the global models. I'd like multiple inches as I do not think we will be able to keep an inch on the ground till Monday (which is when we become permanently below freezing), but I think an inch of snow with a good amount of rain before is a good call.

[CentralNebWeather]

0.40” of rain so far today, and more has just moved in. Surprising and much appreciated. I guess if we can’t get a snow, at least we are getting moisture. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

 

 Check  out this old twc report from Breezewood, PA.  I lived 15 miles from that  location.   Jim Cantore killed it! Lol

I think this sun mon system  could  fool some folks. It was 53F in Philadelphia  and 33F in Pittsburgh  on this report.

 

My memory of that storm. I was living in NWMI at the time. It was a bright almost cloudless sunny day and my car radio is interrupted by the EAS buzz tone. I'm thinking to myself "what could this possibly be for" since there was like zero anything going on with the weather in NMI at the time. Tone was followed by the NWS saying they were tracking a potentially crippling snowstorm and depending whether it tracked west of the Appalachians or more east, it could be hitting lower Michigan. Strangest wx alert of my life. Would have been so cool if actually hit us. It is the only time I've ever heard the EAS used for a snowstorm, and there have been a few legit blizzards since '92 ofc. 

[Minny_Weather]

NAM changes over earlier compared to previous runs, gets me up to 3" (probably less cuz Kuchera sucks at this temp range).