MossMan Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said: Waiting in the lift line at bachelor right now, today is the re-opening day. It opened last Saturday but it's been closed every day since then, now it's opening back up. Pretty nice day up here, looking forward to ski. How are the chances looking for a widespread cold or snow event on Christmas? Impossible at this point or still possibly but very unlikely? I haven't been paying much attention to the long range these last few days. Not looking good unfortunately. Our run of amazing pre, during, post Christmas goodies of the last two years seems to be over. Phil’s Fuzz has spoken. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 Just now, BLI snowman said: Looks a little too distilled for much in the way of a decent inversion. Lots of blah 49/38 type days. Then we mix out with some fresh drizzle just as the high pressure begins to strengthen a bit. That was my thought too. Typically we aren't going to get a good fake cold pattern without a little bit of real cold to start with or draw from. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 11 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said: As someone who has spent the past 20+ years in the commercial aircraft interiors business I can speak to that. Short answer, It's required by law. Inevitably someone will try to smoke, and authorities want to minimize the chance that the fool throws a lit cigarette in the garbage can, which will in all likelihood be full of flammable materials. Most "ashtrays" now are just big enough for 1 cigarette. Last lav design I was a part of, we initially thought/hoped we didn't need one this day and age, but a quick consultation with our certification experts and we found out that was not the case. The waste can is designed to contain the fire for a period of time (not that I would recommend testing it) should some moron decide to toss a lit cigarette or match in there. A CRAP TON of design effort goes into these waste compartments to achieve this, and they are rather expensive. We put an extinguisher system in one of the waste compartments, but I can't remember if it was the lav or galley. All of the materials used in the aircraft are designed to self-extinguish, and about 10 years ago it became a requirement to test the toxicity levels of the smoke. All that said, I highly recommend not smoking in the lav or tampering with the detector. You will have nice people with guns and badges waiting for you at the nearest airport who will put shiny bracelets on you and ruin your trip. For the last design I was a part of, the engineers did a fire containment test burn, but did not conduct the test far enough from the building, and ended up filling the building with smoke. OOPS! I was on a domestic flight many years ago where more than one person was caught smoking in the lav. When the plane landed the cops came on board and took them away. Turned out they were from Russia and apparently didn't know that not smoking in an airplane lav was 'a thing'. lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said: How are the chances looking for a widespread cold or snow event on Christmas? Impossible at this point or still possibly but very unlikely? I haven't been paying much attention to the long range these last few days. Way too early to say. Model accuracy this far out is basically no better than throwing dice. 2 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 Just now, BLI snowman said: Check out New Year's 1924, which I've always seen as a pretty overlooked blast in what was a moderate Nino season. Portland ripped off 7 straight subfreezing highs and Eugene landed itself a 22/8 day. Even Newport managed a 32/10 day on the 1st. Just a drop in the bucket for back then, but that would make some serious waves if it happened in this day and age. At SLE they had a 28/5 that day. The December blast was pretty top tier. 9 sub-freezing highs in a 12 day stretch at SLE with the other 3 days having highs of 33. A 19/8 on the 18th and 27/5 and 23/5 on the 25th and 26th. The rest of that winter was a bit of a torch fest, but I think we would all make that trade... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: At SLE they had a 28/5 that day. The December blast was pretty top tier. 9 sub-freezing highs in a 12 day stretch at SLE with the other 3 days having highs of 33. A 19/8 on the 18th and 27/5 and 23/5 on the 25th and 26th. The rest of that winter was a bit of a torch fest, but I think we would all make that trade... Decembers were something else in that 1919-32 stretch. Kind of like the roll February had been on up until 2024. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 Just now, BLI snowman said: Decembers were something else in that 1919-32 stretch. Kind of like the roll February had been on up until 2024. Maybe starting in 2025 it will be January that takes its turn. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 Maybe a wet pattern setting up to end the month? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 Just saw a post on FB that in the past 10 years, PDX has broken their record for warmest month in every month except January, July (!), and December. Could do December this year... 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 29 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Check out New Year's 1924, which I've always seen as a pretty overlooked blast in what was a moderate Nino season. Portland ripped off 7 straight subfreezing highs and Eugene landed itself a 22/8 day. Even Newport managed a 32/10 day on the 1st. Just a drop in the bucket for back then, but that would make some serious waves if it happened in this day and age. Both of those December’s pulled off 20F highs with no snow cover here. Basically unheard of in todays climate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Just saw a post on FB that in the past 10 years, PDX has broken their record for warmest month in every month except January, July (!), and December. Could do December this year... Meanwhile, Battle Ground has set 3 record warm months in the past 10 years (April 2016, June 2021, and November 2016). The wonders of UHI. 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 35 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: The pattern leading up to Christmas is basically the inverse of a cold pattern here. Just a beast of a trough over the NE Pacific. Would likely be warm and wet with a possible stormy pattern if the trough shifts east slightly. Given the upcoming extension of the east-Asian jet, this makes sense. Could be a major AL/+PNA pattern starting around the holidays. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I would say that pattern looks extreme and unlikely to verify but the 00Z EPS was not that different. Maybe. The EPS has a little more ridging along the coast but the ensemble agreement on the huge trough offshore is about as good as it gets at this range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: I would say that pattern looks extreme and unlikely to verify but the 00Z EPS was not that different. id say it has a lot of support and will happen, maybe not as extreme, but mild conditions and a brown xmas most likely, even over here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 41 minutes ago, Phil said: Given the upcoming extension of the east-Asian jet, this makes sense. Could be a major AL/+PNA pattern starting around the holidays. Gonna be tough for this to happen but also have the CA/SW storms pickup around the same time... 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 -sn, 1” accum 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 14 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: id say it has a lot of support and will happen, maybe not as extreme, but mild conditions and a brown xmas most likely, even over here Grass is still quite green in this area. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Gonna be tough for this to happen but also have the CA/SW storms pickup around the same time... Shplit flow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 55 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Both of those December’s pulled off 20F highs with no snow cover here. Basically unheard of in todays climate. Yeah, they both were pretty dry airmasses north of Seattle. Eugene was the big winner for snow in December 1924. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 This looks Nino-like to me... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Grass is still quite green in this area. Yea it is. Honestly might need to mow soon if we stay 60+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 Redfin app has been randomly sending me homes in Fargo, ND. Hmmmm… 2 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 12Z Euro. I’m in the blue! 4 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: This looks Nino-like to me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: 12Z Euro. I’m in the blue! Nanaimo getting smacked 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Nanaimo getting smacked Nanaimo and Cumberland rank high on my places to consider living if I ever leave Vancouver. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 I don’t think we’ll ever see any meaningful snow in the lowlands south of the border again. With Phil’s multi year Giga Nina, and climate change, everyone is going to get the Eugene winter special. It was a fun ten year run with the forums, but maybe now is the time to shut it down. RIP Winter 2023/24/25/26/27/28/29/30, we hardly knew thee. 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 First week of December is over. Average temp MTD: Portland 53.1F Eugene 52.8F Sacramento 52.6F 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 hour ago, fubario said: I was on a domestic flight many years ago where more than one person was caught smoking in the lav. When the plane landed the cops came on board and took them away. Turned out they were from Russia and apparently didn't know that not smoking in an airplane lav was 'a thing'. lol Russia is another world when it comes to stuff like that, and aviation in general. We had a customer come to us asking if we would be willing to do an interior reconfiguration on their Ilyushin passenger planes (they were built in the 70's/early 80's.) Our main concept development guy was an older British dude, got his start in the industry in the early 70's, came over to the US in the 90's. He has forgotten more information about aircraft than what most people know. He said to it would be in our best interest to not walk, but RUN away from that request. For our interiors our tolerances are typically +/- 2 to 3 decimal places. Some stuff is only 1 decimal place (door gaps, etc). It's been a while but I think the frame spacing tolerance (which is critical) is usually 2-3 decimal places as well. For those old Russian aircraft, the frame spacing could be as much as 6" off!! 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Redfin app has been randomly sending me homes in Fargo, ND. Hmmmm… I was actually in a meeting with someone from Fargo this morning and they were telling us about the record warmth there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 Starting to receive cancellation requests at my STR on Whitefish Mountain. Probably due to poor snow conditions, although there stayed reasons are normally different. This winter so far is a definite candidate for worst ever, if the long term pattern plays out as forecasted. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 Currently have some very exciting 41 degree drizzle!!!!!!!!!!!!! Winter is saved!!!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 Just now, MossMan said: Currently have some very exciting 41 degree drizzle!!!!!!!!!!!!! Winter is saved!!!! That is not summer-like. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Nanaimo and Cumberland rank high on my places to consider living if I ever leave Vancouver. Both nice choices. I’d go Cumberland. Outskirts of Nanaimo is nice. Downtown is a train wreck. Drugs and homeless issues. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Currently have some very exciting 41 degree drizzle!!!!!!!!!!!!! Winter is saved!!!! Still clear blue skies and frosty here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said: I guess if never noticed it when white plastic like that, this one stuck out on the embraer. cool insight The one in the picture was just a random image I found on the net that looked like the one we spec'ed for the aircraft I was helping develop. We were going with an aluminum powder coated part (I don't think we would be able to get away with plastic.) For the Embraer, they are probably either a Cres (steel) or anodized aluminum part. We actually supply the Embraer interiors, and my primary responsibility now is quoting retrofit interiors for the Regional Jet Market. Been very busy the past few months getting the old Horizon Q400s reconfigured to go to new customers. Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said: Shplit flow. Certainly possible. Generally, mega +PNA is not great for CA/SW storminess. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 Ended up with 1.14" yesterday, and it cooled off quickly last night under clear skies. It was 37 when I took the dog out at 10pm, and the grass was starting to get crunchy. Cooled to 35 at some time after midnight. Had the sun make an appearance about an hour or so ago but back under solid overcast. Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 35 minutes ago, iFred said: I don’t think we’ll ever see any meaningful snow in the lowlands south of the border again. With Phil’s multi year Giga Nina, and climate change, everyone is going to get the Eugene winter special. It was a fun ten year run with the forums, but maybe now is the time to shut it down. RIP Winter 2023/24/25/26/27/28/29/30, we hardly knew thee. Giga Nino? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 8, 2023 Report Share Posted December 8, 2023 Two more epic torches for west/central Canada on the 12z Euro. Glad I didn't book a ski trip to Banff this month. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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