December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I hope so! I'm in a semi arid climate so it's always interesting. So glad I didn't move to Tri Cities though. Was close to buying a house in Grangeville, ID if this place had fallen through.

Even if you get 6" total snow this season (which is the sort of total one would expect in the Dry Shi… er Tri Cities), that is still an order of magnitude more snow than 0.6".

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GOA Blocking is a major theme on the extended GEFS. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I remember that day very well. I was at work when it started snowing around 9am or so. I told my boss that one of the models I looked at (don't remember which one) showed a deformation line hitting the area (Gresham, Fairview, Troutdale) showing up to a foot of snow so he said we could go home. I remember needing to go pick up my roommate from his work next to the airport. It was passed 11pm and traffic was really bad trying to pick him up. It was a beautiful day...lol.

I forget the details but the model guidance was just so cryingly obvious to me (and most here) that Portland was about to get hammered, yet the NWS refused to issue any watches or warnings until way too late.

P.S. I believe the NBM refusing to forecast much snow for PDX played into the official forecast's big bust.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GOA Blocking is a major theme on the extended GEFS. 

Crazy how much goa blocking is going on through the whole run. You would think it was La Niña by the looks of it.

[Slushy Inch]

Feb. Still going.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Been raining pretty good this evening. Up to 0.33" for the day an 11.73" for the month.

Getting a foot of rain seems a pretty sure thing.

[Ken in Wood Village]

15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I forget the details but the model guidance was just so cryingly obvious to me (and most here) that Portland was about to get hammered, yet the NWS refused to issue any watches or warnings until way too late.

P.S. I believe the NBM refusing to forecast much snow for PDX played into the official forecast's big bust.

I remember saying to myself, "why haven't they issued a Winter Storm Warning" because of how much snow was falling and accumulating on roads. I know the further South you went, the less snow fell but they could have been specific in the cities that were being hit the hardest. Hopefully they learned their lesson from that day...lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.35" of rain during the day today. Up to 14.71" on the month. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS watching the first cold trough around Day 6, and Day 7+ hoping to see the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska strengthen and amplify up into Alaska.

Day 1 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

22 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Feb. Still going.

If that plays out the possibilities are almost endlessly endless.

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS is making a run for it.

Give @Deweydog the sniper, he's got the best shot.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sitting here thinking back on the year and I can't believe how little love the February 22-23rd event gets. 10.8" of snow at the NWS office. I know @Gradient Keeper got around a foot with that one, the Salem area scored 2-5". And then PDX had the high of 31 on the 23rd and the low of 18 on the 25th. Impressive all around. We had 31/27, 28/14, 32/12, 37/17 on the 22-25th here. Also a total of 11.3" event on the 22/23rd, which was pretty impressive considering we were dry slotted for a long period of time during the middle of the storm when the action was focused over PDX. Though we got a consolation wrap around band just after midnight which lasted until mid-morning. 

We did that a rather major low level arctic blast in early December,  but yeah that event saved Winter for many folks. It was a pretty good one. Can we continue to score this upcoming February? I dunno. I hope so.

[Snownerd3000]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

Smoke em if you got em

I knew I liked you

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3 (4-run trend)

Ever consider getting weatherbell?

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Ever consider getting weatherbell?

Ehhh, I've given it a few brief thoughts....

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend)

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I knew I liked you

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend)

[ShawniganLake]

ICON took away any wind storm potential but looks like it’s about to turn much colder a week from now. 

[smerfylicious]

3 hours ago, SeanNyberg said:

You’ll rarely lose betting against snow in the PNW. Everyone on here is coming from the understanding that the presumption is always wet but too warm, cold but too dry, or too warm and too dry.

So it just seems odd and weird to swing in with “it’ll be a bust,” “fantasyland nonsense,” “zero chance,” etc, every time there is a slight glimmer of hope and excitement. We know this. Every single person on here knows this.

We aren’t drafting news bulletins for the NWS that’ll be released to the unwashed masses where we have to hedge every statement with “but it’s highly unlikely” so we don’t spark a run on the grocery stores.

It’s a weather forum, focused on the PNW, that one must seek out to read or join. We all know that any forecast more than a few days out is likely to change and even short range models are not perfect.

Let folks have fun. Let folks get excited. I know that in all of our social and familial bubbles we are all the weather experts who feel the need to over explain and be the voice of reason. But that’s not needed here. Not only is it not needed, it comes across as needy.

We all know the drill. The snow or wind storm will almost always bust and the long range cold snap will almost always moderate.

Now that we all agree that’s the foundation we are all working with, let’s get excited about a slight chance for a small amount of lowland snow. Lol.

Excuse me sir, your realism is getting in the way of my coming Ice Age. Now kindly step aside while I post Ron Paul it's happening gifs over and over while waiting for the coming forever frost

[LowerGarfield]

33 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Been raining pretty good this evening. Up to 0.33" for the day an 11.73" for the month.

Getting a foot of rain seems a pretty sure thing.

Do you, or any of the BC residents here ever tell other Canadians about your climate and they are jealous for the opposite reasons (I.e.warmer winters) compared to places like Quebec or Winnipeg? When I have been to Vancouver (and especially Victoria) all the locals love to boast about the weather having the most temperate winter climate and it is backed up by the housing prices there vs elsewhere in Canada. What do Canadians from elsewhere say when you tell them you wish your climate had more snow?

Any Canadian poster can chime in here not just Rubus. I admire Canada and it's something I wonder about often.

[FroYoBro]

5 hours ago, FroYoBro said:

ALERT ALERT. WINDSTORM AT MY LOCATION.

 

 

ALERT ALERT. THE 0Z SHOWS ALMOST NOTHING AT THIS SAME POINT. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend)

[smerfylicious]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 6 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (4-run trend) not bad

[Gradient Keeper]

Need that energy in the Bering Sea to hold back towards Kamchatka, Sea of Okhotsk.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Need that energy in the Bering Sea to hold back towards Kamchatka, Sea of Okhotsk.

I think this looks like it is going well?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[SpaceRace22]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8

Yeesh, my LAX-PDX flight on the 8th is going to get cancelled due to snow. But not in Portland.

[Slushy Inch]

Gem cold and dry.

[Timmy]

The Canadian gets there.  At least for cold 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Timmy

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Do you, or any of the BC residents here ever tell other Canadians about your climate and they are jealous for the opposite reasons (I.e.warmer winters) compared to places like Quebec or Winnipeg? When I have been to Vancouver (and especially Victoria) all the locals love to boast about the weather having the most temperate winter climate and it is backed up by the housing prices there vs elsewhere in Canada. What do Canadians from elsewhere say when you tell them you wish your climate had more snow?

Any Canadian poster can chime in here not just Rubus. I admire Canada and it's something I wonder about often.

Probably 90% of Canadians are jealous of our climate.  Probably why it’s a popular retirement area. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

20 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Do you, or any of the BC residents here ever tell other Canadians about your climate and they are jealous for the opposite reasons (I.e.warmer winters) compared to places like Quebec or Winnipeg? When I have been to Vancouver (and especially Victoria) all the locals love to boast about the weather having the most temperate winter climate and it is backed up by the housing prices there vs elsewhere in Canada. What do Canadians from elsewhere say when you tell them you wish your climate had more snow?

Any Canadian poster can chime in here not just Rubus. I admire Canada and it's something I wonder about often.

I’m not Canadian, I’m a US national living in Canada. Been here only a couple years.

Interestingly, most of the locals on the BC weather forum always wish for more cold and snow, despite choosing to live in the least cold and least snowy part of Canada.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er .... hmmm!

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m not Canadian, I’m a US national living in Canada. Been here only a couple years.

Interestingly, most of the locals on the BC weather forum always wish for more cold and snow, despite choosing to live in the least cold and least snowy part of Canada.

How much higher is Vancouvers avg snowfall compared to Seattle? 

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

The Canadian gets there.  At least for cold 

Wow in just 8 days ... hmmm......

[Slushy Inch]

There we go! Ridge bridge and everything 

[SpaceRace22]

Something tells me this thread is going to hit 130 pages shortly after this run is finished.