December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Kayla]

11 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

Raining

depending on how this weekend goes, this could be the first brown Christmas for places like WF, West Glacier, seeley lake, etc, in years.  Decades?

Snowless Christmas is not quite as uncommon as you might think in Whitefish. 2020, 2019, 2018 all saw an inch or less of snow on the ground on Christmas day. 2019 was completely snowless.

It's a lot more uncommon in Bozeman, its been 43 years since the last snowless Christmas. The little system moving in this weekend might save us from our first brown Christmas in Bozeman since 1980 (2004 came very close to being snowless as well).

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunny and 52 in North Bend now.    Christmas Day into the 26th is starting to look like a very wet period for western WA with some AR action. 

Sorry to hear about your pup Tim. It's always so hard losing a pet that becomes part of the family but it sounds like he had an incredible life.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Phil’s phbearishness about anything wintery for the west this winter is probably one of the better signs we’ve seen in years.

I feel like we could be looking at an EPS map showing the polar vortex setting up shop over Seattle in 48 hours and Phil would tell us it won’t happen because of the GLAAM index and a propagating Rosby wave. But we would never even know it was coming because Tim would keep that eps map under lock and key. 

[iFred]

18 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Said goodbye to our 17-year old lab today.   He was such a great companion for my sons growing up.  So many adventures.   He has been on every mountain peak around here.    Sad day... but it was time.    Hopefully he is chasing deer in a field in heaven now.   

I’m am sorry for the loss you and your family are experiencing right now. The memories you have will prove to be more precious than any snowy day. I’d give you a hug and a beer if I could.

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, iFred said:

I’m am sorry for the loss you and your family are experiencing right now. The memories you have will prove to be more precious than any snowy day. I’d give you a hug and a beer if I could.

He loved playing in the snow with my kids.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like our precious pre-Christmas cool spell is slowly getting eaten away at. Then we’re right back to some torching after the holiday. 

PDX has worked its way down to just a degree warmer than their warmest December on record (1950), so it could still definitely be in play.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Managed to hit a low of 36 this morning here with some dense fog. Burned off relatively quick though, it’s now mostly sunny and 46.

[Phishy Wx]

35 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Historic dud.

we've barely passed 33-34 here by like an inch.  but second worst is well in play

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

we've barely passed 33-34 here by like an inch.  but second worst is well in play

Maybe we should wait until March for the final call.

[RentonHill]

Boom 

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Maybe we should wait until March for the final call.

I agree, just reporting how its tracking

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

He loved playing in the snow with my sons.

Dude I seriously almost started crying when I read this last night. Totally reminds me of Dewey. He lived for the water and the snow. Regardless of the time of year, we couldn’t drive up to Larch without him losing his mind thinking he was gonna get to play in the snow. His Opus of course was about 15 years ago RIGHT NOW. The dog was absolutely fearless and lived for his kids. Fearless of course until you got out the vacuum cleaner… This was my son’s ninth birthday party, always wanted to be in the middle of the action.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just a word of caution. I went on the record  proclaiming 2018-19 the dud of the century about 10 days before everything turned around. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just a word of caution. I went on the record  proclaiming 2018-19 the dud of the century about 10 days before everything turned around. 

The Tim reverse jinx. Works out for the Seahawks sometimes. Yeah Feb 2019 is an all-timer here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Boom 

Well shun! 

[TT-SEA]

31 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Dude I seriously almost started crying when I read this last night. Totally reminds me of Dewey. He lived for the water and the snow. Regardless of the time of year, we couldn’t drive up to Larch without him losing his mind thinking he was gonna get to play in the snow. His Opus of course was about 15 years ago RIGHT NOW. The dog was absolutely fearless and lived for his kids. Fearless of course until you got out the vacuum cleaner… This was my son’s ninth birthday party, always wanted to be in the middle of the action.

 

Wow... they do look very similar.   And Cody was the same with water and snow.   

I told myself I was going to be strong.  I have never had to go through that with a dog.   I had a dog growing up but she died when I was in college and my parents took care of everything.   Cody was so weak yesterday... could barely stand and was swaying back and forth when he did stand so I felt better about it being the right time.   But then when I put the chain on to walk him out to the car he started wagging his tail and perked up thinking he was going for a walk.   Absolutely brutal.   The people there were so nice and did everything to make it comfortable for us.   They said they would sedate him first and then follow up with the injection.   After being sedated he laid down in the middle of the room totally normal... his head was down on his paws but his eyes were tracking with whoever was talking at the time.   Then they did the final injection without really telling us.   We were talking and petting him and no more than a minute later the vet said he is gone now.   It was surreal.   I had no idea he was gone... he never moved and his eyes didn't even close.   It looked like you could say his name and he would bounce right up.   I was definitely not strong then.     My sons couldn't bring themselves to go with us but they were on the phone during the appointment and it was horrible for them too.  It was definitely peaceful for Cody though.  

[Mercurial]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Snowless Christmas is not quite as uncommon as you might think in Whitefish. 2020, 2019, 2018 all saw an inch or less of snow on the ground on Christmas day. 2019 was completely snowless.

It's a lot more uncommon in Bozeman, its been 43 years since the last snowless Christmas. The little system moving in this weekend might save us from our first brown Christmas in Bozeman since 1980 (2004 came very close to being snowless as well).

I think those stats are for FCA.  Correct me if im wrong.  Whitefish has a somewhat more favorable microclimate for snowpack despite being at the same elevation.  AFAIK the whitefish coop stopped recording data in 2013.  But yea probably just a couple inches in 2018 and 2020 with nothing in 2019.  

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?mt8902

NWS says we have a white Christmas 92% of the time, with >95% for Seeley and West Glacier.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS. At least a little more active going forward.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... they do look very similar.   And Cody was the same with water and snow.   

I told myself I was going to be strong.  I have never had to go through that with a dog.   I had a dog growing up but she died when I was in college and my parents took care of everything.   Cody was so weak yesterday... could barely stand and was swaying back and forth when he did stand so I felt better about it being the right time.   But then when I put the chain on to walk him out to the car he started wagging his tail and perked up thinking he was going for a walk.   Absolutely brutal.   The people there were so nice and did everything to make it comfortable for us.   They said they would sedate him first and then follow up with the injection.   After being sedated he laid down in the middle of the room totally normal... his head was down on his paws but his eyes were tracking with whoever was talking at the time.   Then they did the final injection without really telling us.   We were talking and petting him and no more than a minute later the vet said he is gone now.   It was surreal.   I had no idea he was gone... he never moved and his eyes didn't even close.   It looked like you could say his name and he would bounce right up.   I was definitely not strong then.     My sons couldn't bring themselves to go with us but they were on the phone during the appointment and it was horrible for them too.  It was definitely peaceful for Cody though.  

Well this killed me.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... they do look very similar.   And Cody was the same with water and snow.   

I told myself I was going to be strong.  I have never had to go through that with a dog.   I had a dog growing up but she died when I was in college and my parents took care of everything.   Cody was so weak yesterday... could barely stand and was swaying back and forth when he did stand so I felt better about it being the right time.   But then when I put the chain on to walk him out to the car he started wagging his tail and perked up thinking he was going for a walk.   Absolutely brutal.   The people there were so nice and did everything to make it comfortable for us.   They said they would sedate him first and then follow up with the injection.   After being sedated he laid down in the middle of the room totally normal... his head was down on his paws but his eyes were tracking with whoever was talking at the time.   Then they did the final injection without really telling us.   We were talking and petting him and no more than a minute later the vet said he is gone now.   It was surreal.   I had no idea he was gone... he never moved and his eyes didn't even close.   It looked like you could say his name and he would bounce right up.   I was definitely not strong then.     My sons couldn't bring themselves to go with us but they were on the phone during the appointment and it was horrible for them too.  It was definitely peaceful for Cody though.  

Hugs to you, Tim.

 

I Have a friend who used to be a vet tech and she said that it's one of the hardest things, but ultimately she never saw anyone thinking it had been too soon, but plenty of people who regretted waiting too long. You were there for him at the end and gave him peace and rest. He wasn't scared or alone. He only knew love.

 

Broke my heart when our old dog (part Newf and part Shepherd) couldn't stand up one morning. We knew it was right, but it's so hard because they want to give you everything of themselves even when they can't anymore. 

 

Man, that dog LOVED the snow too. 2012 was his last winter with us and boy did he make the most of it. Used to zoom around the yard like a puppy and forgot he had bad hips until the next day. He even tolerated being dressed up in Seahawks Tshirts to watch the games on TV with us. Miss that good boy. 

[iFred]

1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

Boom 

I come back from New Mexico on the 3rd and we get our much belated Winter of 1950 sequel?!

 

Nice.

[Mercurial]

53 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... they do look very similar.   And Cody was the same with water and snow.   

I told myself I was going to be strong.  I have never had to go through that with a dog.   I had a dog growing up but she died when I was in college and my parents took care of everything.   Cody was so weak yesterday... could barely stand and was swaying back and forth when he did stand so I felt better about it being the right time.   But then when I put the chain on to walk him out to the car he started wagging his tail and perked up thinking he was going for a walk.   Absolutely brutal.   The people there were so nice and did everything to make it comfortable for us.   They said they would sedate him first and then follow up with the injection.   After being sedated he laid down in the middle of the room totally normal... his head was down on his paws but his eyes were tracking with whoever was talking at the time.   Then they did the final injection without really telling us.   We were talking and petting him and no more than a minute later the vet said he is gone now.   It was surreal.   I had no idea he was gone... he never moved and his eyes didn't even close.   It looked like you could say his name and he would bounce right up.   I was definitely not strong then.     My sons couldn't bring themselves to go with us but they were on the phone during the appointment and it was horrible for them too.  It was definitely peaceful for Cody though.  

D**n… very sorry to hear.  Losing a pet, and especially a dog, is really tough.  As trite as it sounds, he’s in a better place.

[ShawniganLake]

50F and foggy.  Doesn’t feel like December out there.  Usually when it’s foggy and the days are this short it’s not so warm. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

21 hours ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I was thinking about this Arctic Outbreak when I was working at Fred Meyer's. I remember hearing Alaska was having temperatures below -50° Fahrenheit and the Meteorologists were forecasting the cold air to be moving into our area by February 1st. I was working nights and I had a hour lunch so I went home (I lived close enough to drive home and eat and get back in time). I passed a temperature sign that showed 38° degrees. I had my lunch and started driving back to work and that same temperature sign now showed 27° degrees. I was shocked. I knew cold air was coming but didn't realize the temperature was going to fall like a rock. I worked for a few more hours and got to my car. Back then there wasn't a lot of fobs to unlock your door so I put the key in and I couldn't unlock the door. I tried the other side, no luck. Luckily I smoke so I used my lighter and warmed the key up and put it in again and this time it unlocked.  I went home and noticed the East Winds were blowing like crazy. During this cold snap, I went through two car batteries. It's a Arctic Outbreak I will never forget. 

That Arctic Front was about as good as it can get around here. Were you working at the Fred Meyer in Wood Village?

[RentonHill]

well looky here

 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

well looky here

 

meh never comes that close...maybe next time

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... they do look very similar.   And Cody was the same with water and snow.   

I told myself I was going to be strong.  I have never had to go through that with a dog.   I had a dog growing up but she died when I was in college and my parents took care of everything.   Cody was so weak yesterday... could barely stand and was swaying back and forth when he did stand so I felt better about it being the right time.   But then when I put the chain on to walk him out to the car he started wagging his tail and perked up thinking he was going for a walk.   Absolutely brutal.   The people there were so nice and did everything to make it comfortable for us.   They said they would sedate him first and then follow up with the injection.   After being sedated he laid down in the middle of the room totally normal... his head was down on his paws but his eyes were tracking with whoever was talking at the time.   Then they did the final injection without really telling us.   We were talking and petting him and no more than a minute later the vet said he is gone now.   It was surreal.   I had no idea he was gone... he never moved and his eyes didn't even close.   It looked like you could say his name and he would bounce right up.   I was definitely not strong then.     My sons couldn't bring themselves to go with us but they were on the phone during the appointment and it was horrible for them too.  It was definitely peaceful for Cody though.  

Kinda crazy. Our experience with Dewey was pretty similar. He just became immobile, escalating really quickly with his hips and got to the point where he couldn’t control his faculties. So sad because he still had so much drive and wanted to do and be everywhere but his body just wouldn’t have it. It’s almost worse knowing ahead of time, but we spent about three days spoiling him like no other. He loved beer, wasn’t picky but preferred Fat Tire, so one night he got sirloin steak and a 12oz. Pretty sure he was drunk.

Definitely one of hardest days. And even now we rarely go more than day or two without bringing him up for some reason.  

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

And just a week later we had a week of awesomeness! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

21 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Said goodbye to our 17-year old lab today.   He was such a great companion for my sons growing up.  So many adventures.   He has been on every mountain peak around here.    Sad day... but it was time.    Hopefully he is chasing deer in a field in heaven now.   

My condolences Tim on your loss. Your dog looks so happy in the pic. I wish our furry friends lived longer. But that’s what makes our time with them so precious and the memories we made with them.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Can we philter Phil to where he can only post good news to the NW thread? 

Sorry I’m not a wishcaster. But u can always block me.  

3 hours ago, AbbyJr said:

Personally, I'm not convinced we need a wave-2/split SSW for a cold outcome in the PNW. Both 1965 and 1968 featured wave-1/displacements and those worked out really well here during a moderate to strong El Niño. While, I admit my knowledge in this area is very limited, I still think there is a solid chance any form of a SSW could aid in bringing cold into the PNW region. But I could be wrong.

Yes but the Niño LP/standing wave structure was different during those events. This year it’s much further east and in constructive interference with the (albeit waning) +IOD.

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Phil’s phbearishness about anything wintery for the west this winter is probably one of the better signs we’ve seen in years.

You keep saying that yet the torch keeps torching.

FWIW I was pretty bullish in each of the last 6 winters (even 18/19 once the magnitude of the SSW became evident). This is the first winter I’ve been bearish on (for the NW) since 2015/16.

[hawkstwelve]

Damn... What the hell guys. I came to this thread thinking, "Hey let's check out how my PNW peeps are doing!" and I'm met with a bunch of sad stories that just remind me of how hard it was when we had to put our dog down a few years ago. Now you guys got me all teary eyed and depressed.

We all need some SNOW to cheer everyone up! C'MON!!!!

 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel like we could be looking at an EPS map showing the polar vortex setting up shop over Seattle in 48 hours and Phil would tell us it won’t happen because of the GLAAM index and a propagating Rosby wave. But we would never even know it was coming because Tim would keep that eps map under lock and key. 

I’d post it if he didn’t.

2 hours ago, RentonHill said:

Boom 

This is the probably THE defining window of opportunity winter up there in the PNW/W-Canada. Every variable will have to line up perfectly (and I mean *perfectly*) to overcome the in-situ long period base state, but if it all comes together, arctic air could make a temporary visit to W-Canada mid-January.

I’ve been hesitant to call for a “dud” up there so far, but if this ends up being a swing and miss, I think I’ll be on board with a dud.

40 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

well looky here

 

Rain?

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d post it if he didn’t.

This is the probably THE defining window of opportunity winter up there in the PNW/W-Canada. Every variable will have to line up perfectly (and I mean *perfectly*) to overcome the in-situ long period base state, but if it all comes together, arctic air could make a temporary visit to W-Canada mid-January.

I’ve been hesitant to call for a “dud” up there so far, but if this ends up being a swing and miss, I think I’ll be on board with a dud.

Rain?

Thought that sucker was gonna track right over the tip of the OP. Because I'm not smart enough to know when something is going to fail verbatim. So I post dumb stuff and let the smart wash all over me from you experts. 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Thought that sucker was gonna track right over the tip of the OP. Because I'm not smart enough to know when something is going to fail verbatim. So I post dumb stuff and let the smart wash all over me from you experts. 

Well, anyone calling themselves an “expert” on anything probably shouldn’t be listened to anyway.

And I’m terrible at forecasting synoptics, and even worse at mesoscale (except nor’easters right at game time) so don’t trust a word I say on that front.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Odd lack of the usual cold-hearted “The universe is cruel. Things change. Suck it up buttercup and get used to it. We’re all just dust in the wind”,  rhetoric today. I guess that only applies to people who experience a sense of loss from things that aren’t as relatable.

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Maybe we should wait until March for the final call.

I will send a rain shadow effect up in your area for the entire winter and spring.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

so I guess another cold FEBRUARY

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Odd lack of the usual cold-hearted “The universe is cruel. Things change. Suck it up buttercup and get used to it. We’re all just dust in the wind”,  rhetoric today. I guess that only applies to people who experience a sense of loss from things that aren’t as relatable.

Everyone experiences loss.   But complaining about it all the time doesn't change it.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Odd lack of the usual cold-hearted “The universe is cruel. Things change. Suck it up buttercup and get used to it. We’re all just dust in the wind”,  rhetoric today. I guess that only applies to people who experience a sense of loss from things that aren’t as relatable.

I don’t think this was necessary. I feel terrible that you’ve had to watch the places you’re most attached to go up in flames. I’d never use such rhetoric to diminish your experience, nor would I do likewise w/rt someone losing a family pet. This reads like a low blow to me.