January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

This is a First for me, having moved out to Arizona and tracking winter storms that target our state with copious amounts of snow and eventually these systems travel east across the Nation and BURY the Plains and Midwest states.  What a great feeling it is that we can both enjoy this wonderful time of year!  

P.S.: I have 3 separate windows open...One for our January thread, One for the 8-10th storm and the last one for the 11th-13th....This is a first!  It's hard keeping up with all the posts but I make sure to read all of them.  

[hawkstwelve]

26 minutes ago, Tom said:

This is a First for me, having moved out to Arizona and tracking winter storms that target our state with copious amounts of snow and eventually these systems travel east across the Nation and BURY the Plains and Midwest states.  What a great feeling it is that we can both enjoy this wonderful time of year!  

P.S.: I have 3 separate windows open...One for our January thread, One for the 8-10th storm and the last one for the 11th-13th....This is a first!  It's hard keeping up with all the posts but I make sure to read all of them.  

I can always tell when a storm is getting close by the amount of tabs I have open as it slowly grows throughout the week leading up. All the various models, forum threads, NWS products and pages (love the Text Products page to pick up latest updates), radar and satellite... The list goes on. Best part is I might not be closing any of these tabs any time soon! 

[mlgamer]

I measured 3" on the ground here a bit ago from yesterday's snowfall. That was more than forecasted and I bet another 1-2" melted with the temp above freezing at times. Nice way to get things started for the upcoming week of winter weather!

[Andie]

40*

Humidity 76%
Dew 35

Low Clouds, Hazy, Wind 10mph, Change Mañana 

One of those days where that 10mph breeze goes right through you   

 

[Andie]

11 hours ago, Clinton said:

Baatardi has made lots of comparisons to this pattern with '78 and '79.  That was a good January.

Chicago blizzard of 78 as I recall. 
I was there - snow to the top of my garage door.
Got my workout shoveling snow.

[hawkstwelve]

Some light snow falling most of the morning. A nice little appetizer for what's to come! 

[Grizzcoat]

Not often (  I can't remember since the 2001 WCI change) of -80F Wind Chills even forecast in the lower 48.    Just a long range map- I get it, but still ..

 

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, Sciascia said:

Not sure what’s more unbelievable: The 0z GFS painting 30+ inches at ORD in the next 192hrs, or the 0z and  the 6z GFS painting 30 inches there in back to back runs. 

Perhaps most unbelievable of all... a 960 something low over Chicago.

[Minny_Weather]

12Z GFS is a pretty big kick in the balls for most areas of MN

[Andie]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

Chicago blizzard of 78 as I recall. 
I was there - snow to the top of my garage door.
Got my workout shoveling snow.

PS -  I packed up and left for Texas!

“God’s Country”  ………..

[Minny_Weather]

My town looks a lot better with snow than it does with brown grass 

[Tom]

The last 12 runs off the GEFS have shifted the heart of the PV right over Lake Superior.  Jan '14 in the works?  That year, however, it zipped on by but this pattern blocks it up for a longer duration.  

[Minny_Weather]

18 minutes ago, Tom said:

Jan '14 in the works?

 

[mlgamer]

Very picturesque out there today as we wait for Monday's storm!

 

[Black Hole]

20 minutes ago, Tom said:

The last 12 runs off the GEFS have shifted the heart of the PV right over Lake Superior.  Jan '14 in the works?  That year, however, it zipped on by but this pattern blocks it up for a longer duration.  

This perfectly shows what I've been watching that will have huge consequences for how this unfolds. The feature of interest is that low pressure area nudging into AK on the last few runs. If that exists, it changes how everything evolves down here compared to when it was further west. 

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Very picturesque out there today as we wait for Monday's storm!

 

That's a nice little base going for ya!

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, mlgamer said:

I measured 3" on the ground here a bit ago from yesterday's snowfall. That was more than forecasted and I bet another 1-2" melted with the temp above freezing at times. Nice way to get things started for the upcoming week of winter weather!

It's very hard to keep up with things but congratulations!  No doubt your in possession of the magnet this year.

[Cfweather]

I’m hoping someone can help me. ..  my son is supposed to fly out of Cedar Rapids very early Saturday morning.  What kind of timing is the Thursday/Friday storm?  And is there another storm showing up for the weekend?  I’m getting confused with how many storms and which one is which and how many there are!   His flight can be changed-  and I’m trying to figure out if it would be better to change it to Sunday or if there’s another potential storm coming through.   We may be threading the needle to get him out of here!

[gabel23]

The euro has highs in the mid 10’s below zero towards the end of the run. That would be record breaking for me if that happens. 

[mlgamer]

50 minutes ago, Tom said:

That's a nice little base going for ya!

 

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It's very hard to keep up with things but congratulations!  No doubt your in possession of the magnet this year.

And after having a +7.0(F) temp anomaly in December this is getting to be a large turn around here and for a large part of the sub as well.

[Grizzcoat]

2 minutes ago, Cfweather said:

I’m hoping someone can help me. ..  my son is supposed to fly out of Cedar Rapids very early Saturday morning.  What kind of timing is the Thursday/Friday storm?  And is there another storm showing up for the weekend?  I’m getting confused with how many storms and which one is which and how many there are!   His flight can be changed-  and I’m trying to figure out if it would be better to change it to Sunday or if there’s another potential storm coming through.   We may be threading the needle to get him out of here!

I would wait several more days before thinking of changing your current plans. The EURO just has a weak wave for next SAT now.  just my .02 --

[Cfweather]

9 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

I would wait several more days before thinking of changing your current plans. The EURO just has a weak wave for next SAT now.  just my .02 --

Thank you-  too many storms!  Figures that it’s been quiet for the whole winter and now it gets crazy.  It needed to wait about one more week.  

[Minny_Weather]

Fargo is finally going to receive its first subzero reading this upcoming week. The previous lowest temperature this season was +1°F back in November. The latest first subzero reading on record there previously was on December 31, 1987. Needless to say they smashed that record.

[CentralNebWeather]

In Ainsworth Nebraska for a varsity basketball. Northern part of the state. Different world here. Snow piles and drifts. Looks like at least a 6” base. 

[OKwx2k4]

Starting to look more and more like I'm going to see a blizzard here in Eastern OK by day 10. That's very wild. Very.

 

 

[Clinton]

Light snow has started falling for the second day in a row.  Now I'm really in the mood for a storm.

[Tom]

Forgot to post this earlier, as I headed back home from the gym, I noticed Frost on the garbage cans.  Winter has arrived.

 

 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Mid-30's most of the day and our airport logged around 1/2" rain, most of which fell mid to late morning. When the rain first started it might've been chunky drops, but it was 100% rain by the time the sun was up.

Drying out now, occasionally drizzling in Ashland. 

[Black Hole]

Besides the main show on the 12th, the GFS drops a few more inches and some ridiculous cold in here around day 9. 

[Black Hole]

There's even one more right at the end! That was a fun run with 3 winter storms. 

[jaster220]

My afternoon commute home from work featured some icy spots and a fresh coating of snow. Teaser for next week?

[Madtown]

Don't get no better. 3 fresh inches and hockey!

[hawkstwelve]

00z CMC looking good for many folks. 

 

[Madtown]

11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z CMC looking good for many folks. 

 

lol the blue dot in wi...the hurt is real

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 33/28. There was a trace of snowfall before midnight. There was no sunshine once again. For today the average H/L is 32/20 the record high of 63 was wet in 2008 and the record low of -15 was set in 1988. The wettest was in 1907 when 0.59” of rain fell. The most snowfall of 5.4” was in 1962 the most on the ground of 20” was in 1999. Last year the H/L was 32/29 there was a trace of snowfall and a reported 1” on the ground.

Here in MBY there was 1” of snowfall overnight and there is 1” on the ground. There is light snow falling with a temperature of 32 here in MBY.

 

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan for January 7 

1942: Record cold high temperatures occur as arctic high pressure prevails. The high temperature is only 4 degrees at Grand Rapids and 6 at Muskegon. At Lansing, the thermometer struggles to reach the zero mark during the day, with a frigid northwest wind making it feel even colder

1988: An arctic blast brings several days of sub-zero cold to Lower Michigan, including record lows this morning of 15 below zero at Grand Rapids and 11 below at Muskegon.

2014, Southeast Michigan was amidst a 3-day period of record to near-record cold temperatures. Record lows were recorded at Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw. Detroit and Flint each fell to -14 degrees while Saginaw fell to -11 degrees. The coldest spot in Southeast Michigan was the city of Saline in Washtenaw County which fell to -23 degrees! The high temperature in Detroit on this day reached only -1 making it one of the coldest days on record for the city. Widespread wind chills in the -30s and -40s were recorded.

2008, record highs were set across Southeast Michigan. Detroit reached 64, Flint 61, and Saginaw 59. These temperatures were only 3 to 4 degrees off of the all-time January high temperatures. Later in the evening, thunderstorms moved across the region. Some of these storms were severe in Midland, Washtenaw, and Monroe Counties! Since 1986 only two other January have had severe weather, 1990 and 1996.

Some USA weather history for January 7.

1989,  Empty foundations are all that remain of four homes on the southwest end of Allendale, Illinois after an F4 tornado ripped through. The tornado was extremely rare due to its strength and the fact that it occurred so far north during the middle of meteorological winter.

2008,  2008,A rare, EF3 tornado tracked across southeastern Wisconsin. Experiencing a tornado in Wisconsin in January is extremely rare. In fact, it had only happened once between 1950 and 2007, when an F3 tornado affected parts of Green and Rock Counties on January 24, 1967. That tornado in South Central Wisconsin was part of a much larger outbreak of 30 tornadoes across mostly Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri. Wisconsin ended up with 30 tornadoes in 1967.

 

[chescowxman]

We are getting some additional snow showers crossing the County this AM. Temps are near to just above freezing in most spots so be careful out there on back roads and drives etc. Between the melted snow and rain since yesterday a few selected area totals include East Nantmeal 1.11" (2.0" snow) / Atglen 1.22" / Warwick 1.12" (2.0" snow) / Glenmoore 0.96" (1.3" snow) / Chester Springs 1.25" / West Bradford 1.43" / West Chester 1.44" / Kennett Square 1.28" We should see a couple dry days before our next rain event arrives on Tuesday AM this could briefly start as snow but will be a pretty significant rain event for the area. Temps will warm into the upper 40's to near 50 by then.

Records for today: High 70 (1907) / Low minus 2 (2014) / Rain 2.12" (1996) / Snow 22.8" (1996) which was the first day of our 5th largest snowstorm in history (28.9")

[Black Hole]

Looks like quite the thaw coming by the last 1/3 of the month. EPS extended continues to show it turning around in Feb at some point, which makes sense given background forcing and the MJO returning to favorable phases. Plus we have another strat warming even occurring soon. 

[tStacsh]

About an inch of snow today.   January 7th and first real snow on the ground this year.  Can’t believe it.  Finally my boys can go out and play lol 

[Andie]

56*. Clear. 

Rain in forecast tomorrow