January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 22/14 there was a trace of snowfall and 11” of snow on the ground. The sun was out 66% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 30/18 the record high of 56 was set in 1933 and the record low of -6 was set in 1970. The most snowfall of 12.3” fell in 1963 the most on the ground was 20” in 1979 and 1963. Last year the H/L was 34/29 and there was 0.5” of snowfall.

[Tom]

17 hours ago, Clinton said:

This was a memorable stretch of weather.  I'm good with a little warm up.

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

It's cold and it's been cold! The past week from 1/13 to 1/19 was the coldest week on record for that period. And, it wasn't even all that close.

 

 

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

This morning's low temperature of -7° F at

@Fly_KansasCity

ties 1984 for second coldest January 20th. The record for today is -14° F set in 1985.

Will you be able to Top this come mid FEB?  If the northern Tier of the U.S.and Southern Canada fills up with more snow as the pattern reloads during this upcoming Thaw, IMHO, this could really set the stage for a long stretch of cold and snowy weather for the Heartland.  

In a perfect world, the Nanook from the North would like to see some more snow cover up this way....

 

For WY/MT and the Upper MW, the best signal for this season is dialing up as we open up FEB....mother nature should deliver the GOODS...

 

0z EPS/GEFS all starting to show a lot of support for a big ticket winter storm to develop over the central CONUS.  The Big Question is, how much blocking will there be in southern Canada?  How much residual cold will be available?  The models are going to be all over the place with this storm system just like they were in late DEC figuring out the Christmas Day Blitz.

 

 

Once the PAC JET begins to cut underneath all the Blocking up across NW NAMER & Canada around the 7th/8th of FEB, this should rebuild the Glacier and the Arctic Attack will Cometh with Vengeance!  

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

17 minutes ago, Tom said:

Will you be able to Top this come mid FEB?  If the northern Tier of the U.S.and Southern Canada fills up with more snow as the pattern reloads during this upcoming Thaw, IMHO, this could really set the stage for a long stretch of cold and snowy weather for the Heartland.  

In a perfect world, the Nanook from the North would like to see some more snow cover up this way....

 

For WY/MT and the Upper MW, the best signal for this season is dialing up as we open up FEB....mother nature should deliver the GOODS...

 

0z EPS/GEFS all starting to show a lot of support for a big ticket winter storm to develop over the central CONUS.  The Big Question is, how much blocking will there be in southern Canada?  How much residual cold will be available?  The models are going to be all over the place with this storm system just like they were in late DEC figuring out the Christmas Day Blitz.

 

 

Once the PAC JET begins to cut underneath all the Blocking up across NW NAMER & Canada around the 7th/8th of FEB, this should rebuild the Glacier and the Arctic Attack will Cometh with Vengeance!  

 

 

A lot or all of that snow cover even in Northern MN/ND will be going away with this thaw. 

I worry about ptype with a potential storm in the first week of February. Not the type of worry I should be having in West Central MN at that time of year, but alas...

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

A lot or all of that snow cover even in Northern MN/ND will be going away with this thaw. 

I worry about ptype with a potential storm in the first week of February. Not the type of worry I should be having in West Central MN at that time of year, but alas...

Yup, I feel ya, but I'm more optimistic than not for your area and points west to fill up with snow before the real deal Winter pattern kicks in post Feb 7th/8th...

[chescowxman]

Yesterday is on average our coldest day of the year. It was also the 7th straight below freezing day here across the County. Below is a ranking of the longest such streaks since records began back in 1894. Of note 3 of the top 15 streaks have occurred since the year 2000. Many spots will have a chance to top the freezing mark today. Overall a milder stretch lies ahead as we get into our "January Thaw". Unfortunately with the warming will also come rain with some models showing between 2" to 3" of rain by Sunday night.

Records for today: High 72 (1906) / Low 14 below zero (1984) / Precipitation 1.47" (1987) / Snow 12.8" (1987)

 

[tStacsh]

On 1/17/2024 at 11:56 AM, tStacsh said:

I'm getting Ice storm vibes next week.  

I hate ice.   Looks to mostly stay away from my area, but those to the south could a nice coating.   

[gimmesnow]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Yup, I feel ya, but I'm more optimistic than not for your area and points west to fill up with snow before the real deal Winter pattern kicks in post Feb 7th/8th...

I hope so. I've been really bumming. Feels like we got our two weeks of winter and it's over. I was going to go West to snow board in February but sounds like I should wait, the places out there but doing well seem like they might be back loaded.

CPC weeklies look good in February so I'm optimistic too. CPC is usually conservative with cold.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, gimmesnow said:

I hope so. I've been really bumming. Feels like we got our two weeks of winter and it's over. I was going to go West to snow board in February but sounds like I should wait, the places out there but doing well seem like they might be back loaded.

CPC weeklies look good in February so I'm optimistic too. CPC is usually conservative with cold.

What week in FEB would you consider going?  I'm also debating on either Park City or Aspen/Vail sometime in FEB...

[OttumwaSnomow]

Melted the core  of the entire snow depth this am. Currently  14" snow depth, it melted to a incredible  2.90" of water. Which means that  there has been almost no melting of the past 3 snowstorms.   Crazy to think that mby is near 6" of precip in a little over 1 month IN WINTER! 

[Hoosier]

ORD is at -3.8 so far this month.  Today begins the process of undoing that negative departure.  Can't quite tell how the month will shake out, but it's very possible that that gets entirely reversed over these final 10 days, driven more by the very mild nighttime lows.

[Madtown]

7 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Melted the core  of the entire snow depth this am. Currently  14" snow depth, it melted to a incredible  2.90" of water. Which means that  there has been almost no melting of the past 3 snowstorms.   Crazy to think that mby is near 6" of precip in a little over 1 month IN WINTER! 

Watch out for water inside when that ice dam melts. wowzers

[chescowxman]

Today should be our mildest day in the last 10 days with temps well into the 30's to near 40 for most spots. Some rain chances late tonight into tomorrow with a slight chance some of that could freeze on some surfaces. A steadier rain from Wednesday night into Friday morning with high temps well into the 50's on Friday. More rain arrives by Saturday night into Sunday.

Records for today: High 69 (1906) / Low 5 below (1936) / Precipitation 2.20" (2016) / Snow 22.0" (2016) this was the 2nd day of our 7th largest snowstorm (26.0") in Chester County history 8 years ago today.

[Minny_Weather]

I hardly think we're going to see a "harsh return of winter" in February. Best case scenario, we regress to the mean and enter a more active storm pattern (I think the latter will for sure happen). There is just no cold air in Canada to work with.

[Hawkeye]

The latest GFS and Euro both show a stretch of 50s, or even 60s, across the region in early February.

[Minny_Weather]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The latest GFS and Euro both show a stretch of 50s, or even 60s, across the region in early February.

Wouldn't be surprised to crack 50 here which is insane. Usually in this area of the country, temps that warm are immediately succeeded by a powerful cold front. This is just consistent warmth. Makes me wonder how trees are going to react. 

[Andie]

Heavy fog.  40*.  
High of 51. 
Rain, light rain on and off all day.  

[Clinton]

Thick fog with a temp of 33.  At least no ice today!

[Tom]

The part of living in the MW during the Winter time that was most depressing to me is what you guys are experiencing this week and next.  To see such a deep & beautiful snowpack slowly fade away is something that was very emotional to me that ONLY a snowlover can understand!  Ughh, I feel ya guys....after such a nice long cold snap you would want to see it going, but no, not this year.  I guess we'll just have to see Mother Nature restore the glory of a deep snow pack in FEB...but then your having to deal with higher sun angles, longer days, etc... you know what I mean.

[Tom]

Big Snows heading into the southern Mountains of Arizona...I don't remember seeing a forecast for this much snow for Mt. Lemmon!

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 32/14 there was 0.3” of snowfall and 10” on the ground. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 30/18 the record high of 56 was set in 1909 the record low of -19 was set in 1948 the record snowfall of 8.0” fell in 1894. The most snow on the ground was 20” in 1963.

[Madtown]

I know it's the weather channel, but what in the world!

[OttumwaSnomow]

12 hours ago, Madtown said:

Watch out for water inside when that ice dam melts. wowzers

Thats just a house in town, not mine.  But the entire city about the same. You can sure tell if a home is insulated well or not! The gutter companies  will be super  busy!

[ATW]

On 1/21/2024 at 12:53 PM, Clinton said:

This was a memorable stretch of weather.  I'm good with a little warm up.

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

It's cold and it's been cold! The past week from 1/13 to 1/19 was the coldest week on record for that period. And, it wasn't even all that close.

 

 

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

This morning's low temperature of -7° F at

@Fly_KansasCity

ties 1984 for second coldest January 20th. The record for today is -14° F set in 1985.

Was a nice stretch. Our coldest morning was -11 with a high of -3. Hope we get a bit more winter weather in Feb/Mar. 

[Madtown]

3 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Thats just a house in town, not mine.  But the entire city about the same. You can sure tell if a home is insulated well or not! The gutter companies  will be super  busy!

Not even the gutters. Water will back up and start running down the inside walls!

[gimmesnow]

Well, I got back from the UP. I've never seen it look so sad. There was less snow up there than down in SE Wisconsin. We skied the first day at Whitecap, usually it's got awesome terrain. There were like 3 good runs and the base was so small you were going through grass sticking up and sometimes rocks. Blackjack and Indianhead (Snowriver now) were great but nothing like they're supposed to be. Snowmobile trails in the Northwoods in Wisconsin were incredibly disappointing. I didn't ride them but seeing them from the street was sad. There must be some serious business carnage going up there. Snowmobile dealerships with 10+ brand new snowmobiles on display. I remember years when you couldn't find a new one. I think end of this year there is gonna be some heavy discounts on new snowmobiles up there just to clear inventory.

Maybe someone can explain to me how there wasn't any real lake effect snow up there? I thought the warm December would have kept Superior temps up and then blast of cold would have been an absolute lake effect monster.

Now we are going to watch the snow down here slowly die in the next week or two. CFS weeklies say torch until mid February. Not sure why but the last few years feels like we only get two weeks of winter.

  

23 hours ago, Tom said:

What week in FEB would you consider going?  I'm also debating on either Park City or Aspen/Vail sometime in FEB...

Probably President's day weekend I would leave here and work my way westward. I was thinking Winter Park, Breck, and Telluride. My original plan was to come in from the back by Jackson, do Jackson Hole, some snowmobile trips, etc. A friend went and did the Yellowstone tour and there wasn't enough snow for a snowmobile tour, they had them on snow coaches. That doesn't interest me. Websites seem like they are going strong but I know how much ski hills and stuff can lie about snow. I went to Cascade, they said they had 24-36in base and Ski Patrol was roping off obstacles in the middle of runs lol. I've got lodging and connections so it's not like I'm gonna spend thousands on this trip. Still debating. I actually don't know where the best snow is, I just know Utah, Montana, Wyoming, etc are all starving. I might even postpone until next year. I have an indy pass, I might even be content to just make another UP trip if conditions improve up there and do some places around here I've never done, like Chestnut, etc. Looking at temps it's going to be 40s in Winter Park next week. Why would I drive 2k miles to ride packed powder through freeze thaw? It's not worth it just for a bigger hill, I can ride steep stuff around here at Granite, Chestnut, UP. I probably won't do a trip like this every year so I'm gonna make sure it's worth it. Right now it sure doesn't seem like it, at all.

[MIKEKC]

This beautiful winter stretch in KC has held on for a few more days.. 18 days of snow cover and the .57 inches of rain last night surprisingly didn't wipe it out. Still a pretty good snowpack today, but, it's 35-37 around town now and we have some serious melting happening.

Crazy thing last night, air temps during the rain were 33-35 around town all night, a few locations may have touched 32 degrees here and there. The rain did not freeze on cars, decks or elevated surfaces, but parking lots, streets and sidewalks froze up even know we were above freezing. A lot school closings today and it was a surprise to most. The arctic air this last weekend kept the pavement temps at or below freezing. 

 

[MIKEKC]

I was sitting here in Dec. wondering while we where having a very wet and very warm month, if winter would ever show up. Great storm track for KC, but, no cold air. I had close to 4.5 inches of rain which is the average for the whole winter. Winter came and delivered the coldest stretch ever in KC for Jan. 13th to 19th, shattering the old record. KC saw anywhere from 8 inches of snow up to 13 inches in the month of JAN. so far. We also had some minor ice events too..

Now, with the forecast of 50'and 60's coming in next week sometime, I wonder if winter will return. We have 8 weeks on the calendar left for winter, let's see if spring comes early or if winter makes a big return. 

Tom and others, I think you all did a nice job on the long range thoughts for JAN., you saw this coming in your posts that I read. Too bad the blow torch is coming back. Let's hope it only last a few weeks. 

[Hoosier]

Models are trying to cook something up for the Ohio Valley and possibly a bit farther north this weekend.  Marginal airmass though so we'll see.

[Beltrami Island]

A few years back I agreed to help coach hockey after a few years break from coaching.  I went into that hockey season fearing the struggle, on all fronts, that season looked to become.  Then thinking more I thought, well maybe a few things would turn out better and it can't possibly turn out as bad as I feared.  Only for it to turn out exactly as I had initially feared.  

I feel very similar about this winter.

 

[Wheezer]

48 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Models are trying to cook something up for the Ohio Valley and possibly a bit farther north this weekend.  Marginal airmass though so we'll see.

Very December/early January like for the OV and we don’t usually do well here with marginal temps .  Usually a mix and backside flurries.  Near the lakes and higher elevations to our east usually do better 

[tStacsh]

The slow meltdown has begun.  Main roads are finally clear.  Side roads still a sloppy mess and an issue.   

[tStacsh]

4 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

Well, I got back from the UP. I've never seen it look so sad. There was less snow up there than down in SE Wisconsin. We skied the first day at Whitecap, usually it's got awesome terrain. There were like 3 good runs and the base was so small you were going through grass sticking up and sometimes rocks. Blackjack and Indianhead (Snowriver now) were great but nothing like they're supposed to be. Snowmobile trails in the Northwoods in Wisconsin were incredibly disappointing. I didn't ride them but seeing them from the street was sad. There must be some serious business carnage going up there. Snowmobile dealerships with 10+ brand new snowmobiles on display. I remember years when you couldn't find a new one. I think end of this year there is gonna be some heavy discounts on new snowmobiles up there just to clear inventory.

Maybe someone can explain to me how there wasn't any real lake effect snow up there? I thought the warm December would have kept Superior temps up and then blast of cold would have been an absolute lake effect monster.

Now we are going to watch the snow down here slowly die in the next week or two. CFS weeklies say torch until mid February. Not sure why but the last few years feels like we only get two weeks of winter.

  

Probably President's day weekend I would leave here and work my way westward. I was thinking Winter Park, Breck, and Telluride. My original plan was to come in from the back by Jackson, do Jackson Hole, some snowmobile trips, etc. A friend went and did the Yellowstone tour and there wasn't enough snow for a snowmobile tour, they had them on snow coaches. That doesn't interest me. Websites seem like they are going strong but I know how much ski hills and stuff can lie about snow. I went to Cascade, they said they had 24-36in base and Ski Patrol was roping off obstacles in the middle of runs lol. I've got lodging and connections so it's not like I'm gonna spend thousands on this trip. Still debating. I actually don't know where the best snow is, I just know Utah, Montana, Wyoming, etc are all starving. I might even postpone until next year. I have an indy pass, I might even be content to just make another UP trip if conditions improve up there and do some places around here I've never done, like Chestnut, etc. Looking at temps it's going to be 40s in Winter Park next week. Why would I drive 2k miles to ride packed powder through freeze thaw? It's not worth it just for a bigger hill, I can ride steep stuff around here at Granite, Chestnut, UP. I probably won't do a trip like this every year so I'm gonna make sure it's worth it. Right now it sure doesn't seem like it, at all.

The majority of the wind even up there was W to WSW  for the majority of the cold.   I believe Canada did very well.  But the North wind really didn't provide much LES until recently, even then it was pretty moisture starved and hit or miss smaller bands.  

[Beltrami Island]

@gimmesnow

Colorado has good snow depths at the moment.  Utah is good, I think they got some rain at mid elevations though.  Pretty much everywhere else is way down... 

Video from northern Utah.  

 

[gimmesnow]

14 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

@gimmesnow

Colorado has good snow depths at the moment.  Utah is good, I think they got some rain at mid elevations though.  Pretty much everywhere else is way down... 

Video from northern Utah.  

 

Awesome, thanks. Wet snow is exactly what we deal with in the Midwest. Sounds like even if I went to Colorado I'd be in wet snow unless I did the summit. I still have about two months for Rocky Mountain skiing to be good so I'm going to hold off and hope for the best.

 

39 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

The majority of the wind even up there was W to WSW  for the majority of the cold.   I believe Canada did very well.  But the North wind really didn't provide much LES until recently, even then it was pretty moisture starved and hit or miss smaller bands.  

That makes a lot of sense. Whitecap is in Upson and W or WSW winds don't even have it getting anything from the lake. Thanks.

[Minny_Weather]

If anyone misses cold, go to Fairbanks. They're looking at highs in the -30s.

[Minny_Weather]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

The slow meltdown has begun.  Main roads are finally clear.  Side roads still a sloppy mess and an issue.   

Surfaces that were treated before the deep freeze began (basically every side street) melted all the crusted snow that they had on them yesterday when it was in the mid-20s here. Parking lots still have that crust on them but it is noticeably softer today.

[Black Hole]

The monthly average up to today for Tulsa is 28.6. Based on the current forecast I think that increases to 32.9F (or so) by the end of the month. As long as it stays below 34.1 that would be the lowest January since 1985!  It would also be the coldest month in general since December 2000.  That's a seriously impressive number. 

[Black Hole]

It's time for an update on what we should be expecting as we look into February. Look at this strong 7 day averaged signal for days 8-15:

This pattern will be very warm:

But it will also be very wet:

There could still be some snow for areas closer to the mountains that have some elevation. But I think the main story for this period will be mild and very wet weather. Potentially even some flooding. But then as we look ahead towards day 15 we see building heights over AK with colder air coming south:

Look a few days later on the EPS extended:

I think that this will return us to very cold conditions by Feb 10-15. We should get some snow chances with this storm track as well, though it may favor areas further east. Should be fun!

[Tom]

47 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

It's time for an update on what we should be expecting as we look into February. Look at this strong 7 day averaged signal for days 8-15:

This pattern will be very warm:

But it will also be very wet:

There could still be some snow for areas closer to the mountains that have some elevation. But I think the main story for this period will be mild and very wet weather. Potentially even some flooding. But then as we look ahead towards day 15 we see building heights over AK with colder air coming south:

Look a few days later on the EPS extended:

I think that this will return us to very cold conditions by Feb 10-15. We should get some snow chances with this storm track as well, though it may favor areas further east. Should be fun!

 

 

 

 

 

Looking forward to seeing a wild storm train down here in the PHX valley after a nice warm spell this weekend into next week.  Yesterday, my area in Fountain Hills received well over an 1" (1.35") of wonderful rain that soaked into the soils.  PHX officially received a 0.41" RN which is a daily record.  It's been a cloudy, dreary last few days here in the Valley of NO Sun!  But wait, that will turnaround later today through the entire weekend. 

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 34/32 there was 0.41” of cold rain. The day started with 9” of snow on the ground. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 30/18 the record high of 62 was set in 1967 and the record low of -19 was set in 1948. The record snowfall of 6.5” fell in 1930. The most snow on the ground was 19” in 1979. Last year the H/L was 33/29 and there was .2” of snowfall.