January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Front Ranger]

38 minutes ago, Phil said:

I had sex with my gf then took a (positive) covid test.

If I test negative tomorrow will that undo everything?  

 

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Your girlfriend is disappointed that you spent 30 seconds with her, and the rest of the evening on forum telling everyone that it’s not coming. She wants you to go back to her and tell her that it’s coming. 

[Doinko]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Not as cold as the GEM but getting there 

850s get even colder later on

[selkirks]

The Wallingford QFC is totally going to be out of bread, pasta, and produce tomorrow.  

[Phil]

Last 3 Euro runs: watch trend in Siberian trough. Culminates in relative -EAMT/delayed +dAAMt, which is what improves the Pacific pattern.

Interesting and something I should have picked up on this afternoon if I’d been paying more attention.

[Slushy Inch]

[Slushy Inch]

[Mercurial]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow, Day 9

crazy anomalies out here.  My mom's place in Helena is going to be the new Fairbanks

[RentonHill]

Arctic front

[Doinko]

Day 10, major blast

[High Desert Mat?]

Wish the block was beefier tho. It’s a little anorexic. 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

850s get even colder later on

Wetherbell is slow for some reason, even though you have to pay for it. Makes no sense 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Your girlfriend is disappointed that you spent 30 seconds with her, and the rest of the evening on forum telling everyone that it’s not coming. She wants you to go back to her and tell her that it’s coming. 

I see what you did there. To that I say, stamina > instant gratification (if you want to keep her).

[snow_wizard]

Wowzers!  This run gets it done.

[RentonHill]

Sploosh

 

[Doinko]

850mb temps get to -17c over western WA, close up image should show up on pivotal in a few minutes

[High Desert Mat?]

Just now, Doinko said:

Day 10, full on blast

A block like the one over Greenland would be nice in the sweet spot for us. 

[Front Ranger]

[VancouverIslandSouth]

This is wild, much colder than the GEM or GFS in that timeframe, going to be big time strait-effect snow in some areas:

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Day 10, major blast

Wow!!!!

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

850mb temps get to -17c over western WA, close up image should show up on pivotal in a few minutes

That’s cold

[Mid Valley Duck]

That’s a massive ridge over Greenland, yeesh

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Wish the block was beefier tho. It’s a little anorexic. 

That's what I was thinking, but it keeps going just fine.  Kona low at the end means it's far from done.

[Kolk1604]

These runs keep up, the forum will break again! 

What a run to run change... 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Last 3 Euro runs: watch trend in Siberian trough. Culminates in relative -EAMT/delayed +dAAMt, which is what improves the Pacific pattern.

Interesting and something I should have picked up on this afternoon if I’d been paying more attention.

And note how the NPAC/Kona low doesn’t change all that much. It’s actually the most stable component in the NH.

Fascinating that all of this is being driven by what’s happening on the opposite side of the pole. I didn’t even think to look there until now..not sure why.  

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Arctic front

A weak one. We can worry about snow on future runs.

[SpaceRace22]

850s down to -24 at Omak before day 10.

[Cold Snap]

I’m thinking that massive block over Greenland may help the fact that there’s a weaker block over Alaska.

[lowlandsnow]

Cold

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

850s down to -24 at Omak before day 10.

Omak is the -20

[snow_wizard]

This is showing the greatest January blast in many decades.

[Kolk1604]

Lets talk surface temps shall we? 

4pm Friday, Jan 12 

 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

These runs keep up, the forum will break again! 

What a run to run change... 

All of the red to our NW means it could go for a good while.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Wish the block was beefier tho. It’s a little anorexic. 

If you'd read Phil's pre-coital discussion this afternoon, you'd understand that the GOA block that strangely happens to be present in these runs is coincidental and merely a derivative of other more important factors like Australian Monsoon Index.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

And note how the NPAC/Kona low doesn’t change all that much. It’s actually the most stable component in the NH.

Fascinating that all of this is being driven by what’s happening on the opposite side of the pole. I didn’t even think to look there until now..not sure why.  

How does the modeled -NAO stack up to previous El Ninos?

[SpaceRace22]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Omak is the -20

Oops duh you're right. Lake Chelan is right there for reference, my b

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Wetherbell is slow for some reason, even though you have to pay for it. Makes no sense 

Nice graphics though.

[LowerGarfield]

9 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I like this frame. The low is about 20 miles slightly SE of my mushroomed location :D.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How does the modeled -NAO stack up to previous El Ninos?

1968-69.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weird night. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

If you'd read Phil's pre-coital discussion this afternoon, you'd understand that the GOA block that strangely happens to be present in these runs is coincidental and merely a derivative of other more important factors like Australian Monsoon Index.

That GOA block is a flabby mess compared to the monstrous -NAO on this run.

Actually proves my point to a tee.  (And proves you wrong).