Clinton Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Tom said: Build the Freakin' Glacier! I'm tickled with Joy to see all my friends on here about to get nailed with systems Galore! Not only the Snow, but the cold has staying Power. Buckle up buddy! I don't see the cold fading before the 20th, lets get some snow and keep it on the ground! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 As I opined yesterday, the EPS continues to dig this SLP south...the Polar Vortex and blocking are going to make this a Dream come true for many of You! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 Most models are still tracking this one the same path as the last few storms. I think that is unlikely. It should trend south putting my area in the crosshairs. If anything, I could see it tracking too far south given how much cold air is busting south with it. This will definitely be my best chance of something real. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 The 12z ICON going to be much less favorable as it doesn't dig as far west and it ends up trailing the mid-week wave too closely. For a real big storm, farther north, we need good separation. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 Icon 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 Frame before that 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 12z GFS continues to trend further south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 GFS might be suppressed this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6 Author Report Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Money said: GFS might be suppressed this run It'll be south, but still great for some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 GEM is way north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 GFS and GDPS have flipped this morning. The GFS run is south and east because ridging tries to push into the west coast more than previous runs, which shoves the entire long-wave trough farther east. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 GEM/GFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 Ok 12z CMC... I see you... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6 Author Report Share Posted January 6 27 minutes ago, Money said: GEM/GFS Was just thinking what a letdown it will feel like overall if this thing turns into a breezy 6-14", like the GEM. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 The UK trend from 00z to 12z is very unfavorable. We need that big trough to remain anchored over the pacnw. If ridging pushes into the coast it's going to shove everything eastward and undo a lot of negative tilt. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 ICON model was the most extreme for me with major cold potential, of course its even worse up north. Most models showing some snow with this wave at this time, with the exception of the CMC. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StupidFlanders Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 3 hours ago, Tom said: This is the ONE...man, I'm torn bc its my Mothers 77th B Day on the 14th and we just about made plans last night. Gosh, I wonder what she would say if I said I'll book the flights and fly into Chicago late next week? LOL, anyway...Ozark Nation is literally ground Zero across MO. Could you be dreaming??? What days you traveling? Driving Monday-Tuesday. Then Saturday. Hoping for some good snow. We haven't had much out there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 15 minutes ago, StupidFlanders said: Driving Monday-Tuesday. Then Saturday. Hoping for some good snow. We haven't had much out there. Tuesday morning may get dicy...good luck with your travels! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 EURO also way south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 Euro doesn’t really have a storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 That second system really screws things up IMO Euro has it down to 992 in S WI and it was slower 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 Here is CMC HR 120..note the clipper system is way weak and north Here’s euro HR 120. 992 L southern WI. Gfs is sort of in between 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6 Author Report Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Money said: Here is CMC HR 120..note the clipper system is way weak and north Here’s euro HR 120. 992 L southern WI. Gfs is sort of in between It was a substantial shift in how the Euro handles that day 5 system. Doesn't automatically mean it's wrong, but more like proceed with caution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 Yeah, the late-week potential requires a flat/weak lead wave. A strong, amped wave like the 12z Euro shows will blow the whole thing up. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 Euro shows another system next Saturday/Sunday instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6 Author Report Share Posted January 6 12z ICON loop for posterity 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6 Author Report Share Posted January 6 12z EPS did not bail. Plenty of very good members. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z EPS did not bail. Plenty of very good members. looks healthy at this range. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Clinton said: looks healthy at this range. Unlike the last few storms, this would probably be a 15-1 or 20-1 ratio type storm...so these are good numbers. I'll maintain that all else being equal, this one should be further south than the others given the northerly gradient. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6 Author Report Share Posted January 6 Heads up... Pivotal now has the ICON model and there are quite a few model fields to choose from. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 There's a model run every hour these days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 18z GFS coming in a bit better than 12z for a lot of areas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6 Author Report Share Posted January 6 18z GFS might come a bit north. Some conflicting things though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 HR 150 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6 Author Report Share Posted January 6 A bit flatter heights in se Canada, but some changes in our system look like it will override that and result in a net north move. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 Takes the low into west central Indiana majority of the sub does well 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 GFS 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 11 minutes ago, Money said: GFS Lock it in!. It will only change 100 times between now and then! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 Oh my. Well, it'll be fun till it goes away the next run. 2 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 6 Report Share Posted January 6 18z GEFS 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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