January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Money said:

What a weird evolution lol 

No consistency at all.  Might get a nuke this run though.

[Money]

[Money]

966 over Detroit

IL/MI/IN do well 

[Hoosier]

Been at this a long time and I have to say, I don't know if I've ever seen such tightly packed isobars over Indiana before on a prog that is not into super fantasy land.  This is 5 days now.

[Money]

GEM is further north and it’s IA/WI well. Run isn’t done will post maps after 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, Money said:

GEM is further north and it’s IA/WI well. Run isn’t done will post maps after 

Whoa. That’s a nice run. 

[Money]

GEM

[winterfreak]

GEM still cuts it into central MO.

[Money]

HR 120 GFS and CMC are in identical spots and almost identical pressures. Just a different path of getting there 

[Money]

Ukie is a bomb 978 in C IL at 120

[Hoosier]

GEFS rolling now.  Curious to see how many even more nukey members than the op.

[Money]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

GEFS rolling now.  Curious to see how many even more nukey members than the op.

Seems like ensembles are significantly east of the OP

[Hoosier]

fwiw, 00z GFS bottomed out at 961 mb near Toronto.

[ATW]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

EAX AFD:

As we head into Friday, models continue to suggest another trough
digging into the Desert Southwest and ejecting across the south
central US. This will bring another chance for potentially
significant accumulating snowfall Friday into Friday night,
although at the moment the track seems to be a little further
south southeast compared to the tomorrow/Tuesday system.
Additionally, very cold temperatures are likely to arrive and
plunge us into what could be a prolonged period of subfreezing
temperatures. This is currently forecast to include single digit
to perhaps even subzero temperatures Friday night, Saturday night,
and Sunday night with well below zero wind chills.

Let’s make this happen!

[Hoosier]

Another view of UKMET at 120.  This is around when it reaches peak depth.  Low tracks to southern Lake Michigan after this.

[Hawkeye]

Euro sliding a bit too far east for Iowa, but it's going big.

[winterfreak]

Man, just too far east. Seems pretty locked in.

[Grizzcoat]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Euro sliding a bit too far east for Iowa, but it's going big.

Not going to complain about another 3-6".

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Euro sliding a bit too far east for Iowa, but it's going big.

Explosive deepening... around 2 mb/hr for a while.  Very impressive to get that rate of deepening over land.  

[Grizzcoat]

[Hoosier]

A bit premature for details of course, but this is quite a wet snow/wind bomb around the southern Lakes on this Euro run.  Much of the snow falls before temps plunge.

[Hoosier]

Just for some idea of the rarity of what is being modeled, BOTH the 00z Euro and GFS would flirt with or break the all-time low pressure records in much of central/eastern IN.  Those records were established in the infamous January 1978 Cleveland superbomb, which was centered farther east and bottomed out in the 950s.  

Plenty of time to get a different ultimate outcome, but just pointing out for some context.

[Money]

6z GFS

[Tom]

This one has my interest as my father, brother and his family are going to Holland, MI for a tournament this weekend.  If the models continue to trend towards a Blizzard, I doubt they go and it gets cancelled.  TBH, I'm a bit jelly if this storm ends ups going nuclear.  Tracking this storm from afar, I've never seen the models show such a deep low and vicious cold/wind for the lower lakes.  @Hoosier, your right about this powerhouse which could be a legendary JAN storm...like back in the late 70's! 

[Ottawa CO, MI]

27 minutes ago, Tom said:

This one has my interest as my father, brother and his family are going to Holland, MI for a tournament this weekend.  If the models continue to trend towards a Blizzard, I doubt they go and it gets cancelled.  TBH, I'm a bit jelly if this storm ends ups going nuclear.  Tracking this storm from afar, I've never seen the models show such a deep low and vicious cold/wind for the lower lakes.  @Hoosier, your right about this powerhouse which could be a legendary JAN storm...like back in the late 70's! 

Don't tease me...

[Black Hole]

This system has two problems that keep in from (probably) doing as much for areas further west and or south. One is that the existing lower heights to the east and insufficient SE ridge means it races east too quickly. This is further compounded by the rising heights along the west coast during this period. So that'll be an issue.

The other problem is that due to the cold trough ahead of it, moisture is limited. So it does eventually wrap up into a solid system, but it takes a while compared to what you might think given the low SLP. So my guess is it doesn't really get going until a little further east than the preceding systems. 

The only wild card would be if the low level cold can outrun model expectations and force a changeover to sleet or zr.  But even that seems less likely now that models are holding back a piece of the PV over southwest canada for longer. Since the cold is less consolidated it probably won't be as forceful to push in behind the system Friday and may linger a bit. In that sense, it's probably a lost cause down here too. 

[bud2380]

Pivotal doesn't do 48 hour snow maps, I wish they would.  Here is from instantweathermaps.com that shows 48 hour snowfalls.

 

[Money]

Looks like Icon is gonna be north from 6z

[Money]

Icon bombing out at that point 

[Hawkeye]

Risk for Iowa continues to be too much of an eastward slide.

[mlgamer]

oops...wrong thread.

[Money]

GFS bombs away

973 in western IN at hr 102

[Hawkeye]

12z GDPS slid a bit farther east, similar to the GFS.

[bud2380]

Such a long duration event, can't catch the whole midwest/GL regions in just a 24 hour map, so again here is 48 hours.  Northern Missouri still favored.

 

[East Dubzz]

If the GFS ends up being too far south with the current storm, any chance that impacts this storm? 

[Andie]

Currently a bit turbulent. 
Rain, Wind 26mph, more on the way.  

Plenty of lightning.  Imagine if this was snow. This is acting like a typical Fall storm.  

[Money]

Ukie 

[Hoosier]

58 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Such a long duration event, can't catch the whole midwest/GL regions in just a 24 hour map, so again here is 48 hours.  Northern Missouri still favored.

 

Wonder what kind of ratios that is using.  Doesn't seem like 10:1 or Kuchera.  Storm is also ongoing for eastern areas at that time so yes it will be nice to get the current storm out of the way for snow map posting purposes.

[Hoosier]

19 minutes ago, Money said:

Ukie 

I saw the precip plots... absolutely crushes Chitown.

[Bumblin Bman09]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

This one has my interest as my father, brother and his family are going to Holland, MI for a tournament this weekend.  If the models continue to trend towards a Blizzard, I doubt they go and it gets cancelled.  TBH, I'm a bit jelly if this storm ends ups going nuclear.  Tracking this storm from afar, I've never seen the models show such a deep low and vicious cold/wind for the lower lakes.  @Hoosier, your right about this powerhouse which could be a legendary JAN storm...like back in the late 70's! 

My wife is headed to Philly on Friday for a Hockey tournament and my buddy is headed to Holland for a hockey tournament this coming weekend.  I already informed them to try and book travel earlier if possible.