hawkstwelve Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 I can't make heads or tails of what's going to happen. We are about 30 hours out from the event getting underway out here and the NAM/HRRR/SREF have me at 10-12+ inches while the GFS/CMC/Euro all have me at or under an inch. I'm not sure I've seen such a wide spread of totals only being a little over 24 hours out. My family is asking me if we are going to have snow tomorrow/Friday and I literally throw my hands up and say, "I have absolutely no idea. We will either get under an inch or we will get a foot" and they look at me like I'm crazy. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pros3lyte Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Just now, hawkstwelve said: I can't make heads or tails of what's going to happen. We are about 30 hours out from the event getting underway out here and the NAM/HRRR/SREF have me at 10-12+ inches while the GFS/CMC/Euro all have me at or under an inch. I'm not sure I've seen such a wide spread of totals only being a little over 24 hours out. My family is asking me if we are going to have snow tomorrow/Friday and I literally throw my hands up and say, "I have absolutely no idea. We will either get under an inch or we will get a foot" and they look at me like I'm crazy. Lol my family is doing the same to me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 ARX (LaCrosse) also issued Winter Storm Watches all the way up to Red Wing, MN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 GRR with a watch. Comparing it to 2011 GHD storm for West Michigan. - High impact storm likely Friday afternoon-Saturday morning We will be issuing a Winter Storm Watch for the entire area for late Friday morning through Saturday morning for heavy snow and significant blowing and drifting snow. Confidence continues to increase steadily for a high impact winter storm for the Friday- Saturday time frame. Models, including ensemble means, are in very good agreement regarding the system, especially for 2-3 days out leading to the increasing confidence. That said, there remain some smaller details that could affect areas expected to be on the edge of the heavier wintry precipitation. The general pattern is pretty much set with a strong upper jet streak and wave rounding the base of the long wave trough becoming established over much of the country. The wave of note will be lifting up, and closing off for very strong upward vertical motion over the area. The associated sfc low looks to take a track over far SE Lower MI, which would support a nearly textbook track for the heaviest snow with the pivot point of isentropic ascent ahead of it, and deformation/trowal area through the heart of the area, including Grand Rapids. The timing of the onset of the snow and heaviest snow has shown a trend of just a little quicker. The problem with this is that it now looks to impact the afternoon hours when schools are letting out and as most people are heading home from work. There are indications that the snow may become so heavy Fri afternoon and evening that would could see 1-2"/hr snow rates for a few hours including those impact times. Model ensembles are indicating probabilities as high as 60-70% of a swath of snow over 12 inches, ensemble means also pushing a foot. In addition, we are looking at at least 30-40+ mph winds developing at that time also. The snow does look to be somewhat wet in nature at the onset, which would limit blowing and drifting snow initially. The snow should become less wet, and blowing and drifting will become a significant factor no later than Friday evening. This system looks quite similar to the "Groundhog`s Day Blizzard" of February 2011 where 10-14 inches of snow fell in 8 hours or so with 40 mph winds. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 My point forecast calls for 5-9". I'm guessing the NWS is siding with the globals for right now. Thursday Night Snow, mainly after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday Snow. High near 28. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: I can't make heads or tails of what's going to happen. We are about 30 hours out from the event getting underway out here and the NAM/HRRR/SREF have me at 10-12+ inches while the GFS/CMC/Euro all have me at or under an inch. I'm not sure I've seen such a wide spread of totals only being a little over 24 hours out. My family is asking me if we are going to have snow tomorrow/Friday and I literally throw my hands up and say, "I have absolutely no idea. We will either get under an inch or we will get a foot" and they look at me like I'm crazy. I’m in a Winter Storm Watch for 3-7”. Some models show little to nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 NAM snowiest run yet for here 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10 Author Report Share Posted January 10 16 minutes ago, indianajohn said: WSW just issued for NWI I almost wonder if we'd be better off locally with the nuclear deepening scenario of the HRRR, but adjusted southward of course. Would really kick that dynamic cooling into high gear. The HRRR has northern IL snowing at 18z Friday, while the NAM is weaker and farther east with the surface low and yet it's still rain at that time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 49 minutes ago, FV-Mike said: Got to think LOT will issue WSW this afternoon. Just did and they must not be buying into the northern shift. This last storm they waited until the day of to issue any headlines because they were worried about the NW shift and the rain mix. They haven't come out with the afternoon AFD yet explaining there reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sholomar Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 father lives in Ozaukee County, WI. Looks to get another good storm. However the 5 inches we just got won't melt until March or April anyways, whereas his couple of feet will be totally gone before my 5 inches, LOL. While I was out jogging 5 miles, I got hit by a burst of moderate to heavy snow for about 20 minutes. That was quite enjoyable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, shakjen said: Just did and they must not be buying into the northern shift. This last storm they waited until the day of to issue any headlines because they were worried about the NW shift and the rain mix. They haven't come out with the afternoon AFD yet explaining there reason. And the Lincoln office issued a WSW for their 4 northern counties already but DVN has not done anything for their counties Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, shakjen said: Just did and they must not be buying into the northern shift. This last storm they waited until the day of to issue any headlines because they were worried about the NW shift and the rain mix. They haven't come out with the afternoon AFD yet explaining there reason. yep very interesting. Extended south through I80 even down to Kankakee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 18Z RGEM trending snowier for here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10 Author Report Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, FV-Mike said: yep very interesting. Extended south through I80 even down to Kankakee Pretty excellent placement imo given the uncertainty. Possible the southern tier struggles but possible that they don't. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 DVN just issued Winter Storm Watches. 4-8” winds gusting to 45mph. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10 Author Report Share Posted January 10 The 3 km NAM flips to snow faster than the 12 km version (around here) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblin Bman09 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 I like LOT WSW for NIL (near WISC border). Based on current runs the 6+ seems accurate. I don't think we exceed a foo but I think we end up in the 6-12 range. LE as the storm moves east could help totals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said: I think it's appropriate that this looks like a giant phallus giving it to KC. That's what usually happens. I am, however, enjoying the posts from Iowa every 5 minutes telling us how good it's looking for them. It's amazing how many different ways one person can say the same thing. I gotta admit...I laughed way harder and longer than I should have when I read this. I had just posted mine in the complaint thread. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Lincoln AFD the rain/snow line will shift as far north as Galesburg around midday Friday with almost all of the forecast area experiencing rain at that point. Colder air starts to filter in from the west behind the low through the remainder of the day Friday, though after forcing has peaked resulting in periods of light to moderate snow. Forecasted snow totals have come down substantially for much of the area. NBM probabilities for exceeding 6 inches of snow during the event are highest (50-70 percent) across the far northern forecast area (Knox, Stark, Marshall counties) where a Winter Storm Watch will be hoisted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Woah. Surprised to see this just posted for here. I was not expecting a WSW yet... IAZ001-MNZ089-098-SDZ059>062-064>069-110515- /O.NEW.KFSD.WS.A.0002.240111T1800Z-240113T0000Z/ Lyon-Nobles-Rock-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Douglas- Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton- 312 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota and south central and southeast South Dakota. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 8-14" 2 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Well I got the NAM on my side...with this thing neg tilt maybe ot can head north a bit more? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 WWA for 5” and 40 mph winds. Wind chills Friday night through Tuesday as low as -45. Wow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 18z ICON did not blink. It stayed south with the heavier totals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 14 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: 8-14" WOW. And what you have on the ground now?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 18z ICON did not blink. It stayed south with the heavier totals. 18z GFS is south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 18z GFS is south Definitely stayed with its general southern solution. Although I do see a slight tick NW on the trend gif. Still keeps me at under an inch, so nowhere near the CAMs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Definitely stayed with its general southern solution. Although I do see a slight tick NW on the trend gif. Still keeps me at under an inch, so nowhere near the CAMs. Your right. Maybe I was comparing it to other northern solutions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 16 minutes ago, gabel23 said: WOW. And what you have on the ground now?? 10" 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Here's an excerpt from NWS FSD AFD. I was hoping they would dive into the model differences a bit more and give some reasoning on which solution they were leaning towards. They mention models being in "good agreement" but I can't say I agree with that considering they show anywhere from 0-12+ inches. But I guess with the WSW being issued for 2-7 they are hedging their bets on the Hi-res CAMs and their ability to pick up mesoscale forcing. They also mention potential upgrades to Blizzard Warnings depending on how things progress over the next few model runs. Of greater concern is a progressive, deepening storm system sliding into Central Plains during this period. There has been a major northwest shift in model snow accumulations in the past 24 hours, toward increasing snow chances and amounts on Thursday through early Friday. In our area, this means enhanced snowfall amounts from mid level frontal banding and deformation as the attendant sfc low tracks from the Oklahoma Panhandle toward the Ohio River Valley. As a result, increased snow chances toward CONSAll as NBM was much too low and prolonged higher snow chances longer through Friday. Deterministic models (NAM, Euro, GFS) are in good agreement in snow beginning in south central South Dakota Thursday morning and spreading east through the day. An additional push of FGen induced moisture/lift pushing north into the region Thursday evening, bringing moderate to heavy snow to portions of northwest Iowa, especially along and south of the U.S. Hwy 20 corridor. Expected snowfall amounts have increased dramatically from 12 hours ago. Have maintained 12z WPC liquid equivalent QPF which is notably higher than most ensemble guidance, likely due to ensemble guidance not resolving the assistance of mesoscale forcing for ascent we`re expecting. This gives moderate to high confidence in a broad area of 6+ inches of snow south of a Spencer and Le Mars IA to Vermillion SD line, where a Winter Storm Warning has been issued. Further northwest, lower confidence in the snowfall forecast in those areas from Spencer/Storm Lake to Le Mars to Vermillion and northwestward toward Windom to Sioux Falls to Yankton. Thus have issued a Winter Storm Watch for this area. Snowfall amounts could certainly trend a few inches higher (7 or more inches) or lower (as low as 2-3 inches) in this area, so have opted to maintain the potential for expansion and/or upgrades to a warning after another set or two of model runs. Another major factor is how much of an impact Friday`s strong northwest winds will have. With high confidence in gusts 25 to 40 mph during the daylight hours and continuing through Saturday, locations that are still seeing snow falling through are likely to see very difficult travel due to blowing and drifting snow. There is still lower confidence regarding how long and at what rates falling snow would occur through the day Friday. If snow is no longer falling and winds are just lofting the new, previously fallen snow, blowing snow may not cause as widespread of travel issues. Given this uncertainty, will continue to monitor potential for blizzard conditions and adjust headlines as needed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 GFS GFS/NAM both showing 14-16 here now 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 GFS still looks great for my area. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Icon also nearing a foot here and RGEM is about 8-9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: GFS still looks great for my area. I would take that. But that is what the map looked for me for the last storm up until the day before, then I ended up on the rain/mix line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 18z GFS. I’d take this with 40 mph winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 18z ICON full 120 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Anywhere from 0-3, 8-12, or 1-2 inches for a forecast valid starting 14 hours from now. Geez... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 DMX- Blizzard anyone? (NW is the trend) The big system in the forecast is still on track to impact the region by late Thursday afternoon and through Friday night. This system is trending further to the northwest that the forecast from 24 hrs ago as the upper level system closes off earlier and leads to this system. Highlights (or low lights, pending your perspective) of this system include as strong low level moisture transport northward from the Gulf. This system will have a strong push of theta-e advection followed by the development of a TROWAL feature as warm air and moisture wrap around the system. The TROWAL may result in an enhanced region of banded heavy snowfall. Convective properties are possible with this system and there is a better signal for slantwise convective potential into central Iowa along with general elevated convection possibly reaching the far southeast. Finally, snow crystal morphology is trending dendritic with along with the dendritic growth zone region deepening as colder air arrives therefore, snow to liquid rations will be near to above climatology. All in all, pending the exact track of this storm, another system with warning criteria potential snowfall, with an a greater than 50% chance of heavy banded snow along the TROWAL should it set up over Iowa as progged. The Arctic cold will begin to filter into Iowa during this evening with increasing cold advection. This coupled with a strong pressure gradient and mixed layer winds will lead to the potential for wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph mainly later Friday and Friday night. Given the current snow cover in place and storage areas already partially full, blowing snow will be a greater impact than this past event. Worst case scenario, this could turn into a Blizzard. For now will highlight significant snow and blowing snow possible. Will be issuing a Winter Storm Watch for Thursday night through Friday evening for the entire area. Will continue to provide higher resolution of timing and location as confidence increases. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 This trend gif of the past four runs shows the NW trend on the GFS a bit better. I'd expect one of the model camps to break towards the other on the 00z runs tonight. I'll be waiting with bated breath... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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