January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[SouthHillFrosty]

I don’t see the Euro caving at this point….. I would be very surprised tbh 

[LowerGarfield]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That was the biggest off season windstorm I can ever remember! Was in Sun Lakes taking advantage of the big rollers that day, came home the next day to a mess and no power. 

We ended up going to that Asian buffet in Burlington because they had power but no one else did within anywhere close of Stanwood-Camano.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like EUG officially measured 0.7" of snow on Saturday. Of course this was actually sleet, but at least nice to see them recording snowfall there. They are the only airport in Western OR and Western WA besides SEA,  PDX, and MFR that still does.

[TacomaWx]

Still no word on a potential significant ice event from the NWS that’s slated to start in 12 hours. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Excruciatingly close track for a puget sound snowstorm. Instead likely to be a mixed mess. 

Its just dumb how close this is. 50 miles is all we need to make a big difference.

[TacomaWx]

Hit 18 degrees this morning. 3 degrees colder than yesterday morning. Interesting 24 hours of weather coming up. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Still no word on a potential significant ice event from the NWS that’s slated to start in 12 hours. 

Completely insane. There is a bunch of newer people in there that might not have the experience some of the older folks had there 10 years ago.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Completely insane. There is a bunch of newer people in there that might not have the experience some of the older folks had there 10 years ago.

I wouldn't issue anything for Seattle but I'm surprised they haven't issued anything for the lower-elevation areas around Olympia and Tacoma. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Completely insane. There is a bunch of newer people in there that might not have the experience some of the older folks had there 10 years ago.

It’s ridiculous. Told my boss about it and he seemed to think that it wasn’t coming because he heard no warning about it on the news, weather apps or NWS. Most people have no idea the potential for this exists. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Hit 18 degrees this morning. 3 degrees colder than yesterday morning. Interesting 24 hours of weather coming up. 

15 here, i was surprised!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

NWS Portland thinking the airmass will be cold enough to support 1 inch of snow, I hope they are right! They are also thinking Washington County will be the big winners with the ice storm along with areas near the Gorge, Camas/Troutdale.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Portland OR 318 AM PST Tue Jan 16 2024

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of one quarter to one half inch. Winds gusting up to 40 mph near the Columbia River Gorge.

* WHERE...In Oregon, Coast Range of Northwest Oregon, Greater Portland Metro Area and Central Willamette Valley. In Washington, Greater Vancouver Area. * WHEN...From 2 PM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Localized ice accumulations of over one half inch are possible for western portions of the Tualatin Valley, the West Hills of Portland, the Vancouver suburbs, and areas near the west end of the Columbia Gorge.

 

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I wouldn't issue anything for Seattle but I'm surprised they haven't issued anything for the lower-elevation areas around Olympia and Tacoma. 

It is totally insane there is nothing around the canal, good chance a good part of this ends up snow out here, the models do a horrible job with the depth of the cold pool over here. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS members... the center gets real messy as it moves inland since it's so weak. Really its the green circle which represents a broader area of low pressure.

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s ridiculous. Told my boss about it and he seemed to think that it wasn’t coming because he heard no warning about it on the news, weather apps or NWS. Most people have no idea the potential for this exists. 

We got a winter weather advisory for the foothills (UPDATED). School is on a 1-hr delay today, not sure why really. One of the elementary schools is closed for a broken water pipe. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
847 AM PST Tue Jan 16 2024

WAZ555-170100-
/O.EXT.KSEW.WW.Y.0004.240117T0300Z-240117T1400Z/
East Puget Sound Lowlands-
including Bonney Lake, Maple Valley, Monroe, Woodinville,
Arlington, Granite Falls, Lake Stevens, Snohomish, Gold Bar,
Duvall, Carnation, Fall City, Snoqualmie, North Bend, Covington,
Black Diamond, Orting, and Eatonville
847 AM PST Tue Jan 16 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected, with areas of freezing
  rain. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice
  accumulations of around one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...East Puget Sound Lowlands from Snohomish County to
  Pierce County, including Arlington, Gold Bar, Duvall,
  Snoqualmie, Buckley, and Eatonville.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 AM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s ridiculous. Told my boss about it and he seemed to think that it wasn’t coming because he heard no warning about it on the news, weather apps or NWS. Most people have no idea the potential for this exists. 

My gut tells me this will bust and be more snowy and icy than forecasted to be. This is only based on what has happened in the past with these events.

[SnowySeeker50]

Low of 22f this morning. Surprised NWS has now completely removed a chance of ZR in my area forecast and just showing nothing but cold rain.

[MossMan]

20 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

12z GEM 

So does the freezing rain accumulation happen first up here before the snowfall? Nearly a half inch of ice and 8” of snow? That sounds fun!!! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Wow! Models have trended a notch colder overnight. Now looks like 8–12" is a good bet for my region.

This might be the third winter in a row featuring a storm with a double-digit snowfall IMBY.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I will be watching the sat loop today, if that trough coming down the bc coast speeds up and makes it here sooner than forecasted  then everything changes to a more snowy solution. We might be talking about a few hrs coulkd make a difference, crazy stuff.

[Andstorm]

44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As Jim pointed out, last nights CFS was interesting. Basically a two week period of chilly to cold weather at the end of January to about February 10th. Then everything shifts east late in February. 

Seems unique to CFS at this point but interesting to monitor nonetheless. GFS showed a cooling trend in 18z last night but it disappeared in today’s ensembles. I’m pretty skeptical but would sure be something to see another cold trough in a week. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My gut tells me this will bust and be more snowy and icy than forecasted to be. This is only based on what has happened in the past with these events.

I'm with you.  Hard to remember a time where it's been this cold for so long in WW and not have some sort of snow/freezing rain to rain transition.  The lack of at least nws advisories is pretty surprising, especially in the Snohomish/north king counties.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wow! Models have trended a notch colder overnight. Now looks like 8–12" is a good bet for my region.

This might be the third winter in a row featuring a storm with a double-digit snowfall IMBY.

Dude you will get nailed good. Awesome storm coming and maybe more Thursday!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

BOOM advisery issued!

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

BOOM advisery issued!

Yep -- up to 0.1" ice and 1/2" snow. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Morning shift must of came in and said WTF are you guys doing!!

[MossMan]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Morning shift must of came in and said WTF are you guys doing!!

Or they checked in on the forum and made their decision because of us!!!

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wow! Models have trended a notch colder overnight. Now looks like 8–12" is a good bet for my region.

This might be the third winter in a row featuring a storm with a double-digit snowfall IMBY.

usually when you do good, we do too over here.  I'm hoping for the largest one day snow in Spokane in the 6 years I've been here. (8.1" in Dec 2020)

[HuskyMaestro]

Just woke up to the WWA here. Snow of less than 1/2” and ice of 1/10”. Gonna be an interesting night ahead 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Or they checked in on the forum and made their decision because of us!!!

I bet money they look on here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

They could log on here and look at all the maps we post and make a forecast lol. Massive Knowledge on here.

[Andstorm]

55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As Jim pointed out, last nights CFS was interesting. Basically a two week period of chilly to cold weather at the end of January to about February 10th. Then everything shifts east late in February. 

I’ll be interested if the climate prediction center updates its forecasts which show well above average temps for remainder of month 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Or they checked in on the forum and made their decision because of us!!!

 

2 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Just woke up to the WWA here. Snow of less than 1/2” and ice of 1/10”. Gonna be an interesting night ahead 

 

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I bet money they look on here.

Fred mentioned all the local PDX and SEA stations log on here. They for sure use our knowledge when making their forecast.

[SnarkyGoblin]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS members... the center gets real messy as it moves inland since it's so weak. Really its the green circle which represents a broader area of low pressure.

So are you thinking the strength of low is more important than location when it comes to how far south the cold air aloft drops?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Those amounts will probably bust (too low).

Quote

SNOWFALL WARNING

4:45 AM PST Tuesday 16 January 2024

A snow storm is expected to arrive tonight.

When: Tonight to Wednesday afternoon or early evening.

Where: Metro Vancouver, Fraser Valley- west including Abbotsford, Greater Victoria, Howe Sound, Whistler, Sunshine Coast, Southern Gulf Islands, East Vancouver Island, Inland Vancouver Island, Sea to Sky - Squamish to Whistler, Malahat Highway - Goldstream to Mill Bay.

Snowfall accumulations: Approximately 10 to 20 cm on the mainland side and southern Sunshine Coast and 10 cm for the Vancouver Island side and northern Sunshine Coast.

Remarks: A Pacific low pressure system is expected to bring widespread snow to the south coast tonight into Wednesday. Snow may become mixed with rain over Greater Victoria on Wednesday afternoon before easing late in the afternoon or early evening.

In addition, there is a risk of freezing rain tonight in southern sections near the United States border.

Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.

 

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

Here she comes! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS looks like crap in the long range. Long ways to go though. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS looks like crap in the long range. Long ways to go though. 

The 06z looked good at end, i was a bad boy and looked lol.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS looks like crap in the long range. Long ways to go though. 

Pretty safe bet we will be back to regular 50-burgers soon. Not worrying about clown range much.

[iFred]

26 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Yep -- up to 0.1" ice and 1/2" snow. 

Probably over doing it because of the weenie outcry.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The 06z looked good at end, i was a bad boy and looked lol.

Yeah, I can't help myself. Then I look at the CFS, if nothing there I'll look at seasonal ENSO ensembles. I'm an addict, I need help.