January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

24 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like whenever I make a post there’s some typo I feel compelled to fix, which means I get the ugly edited tag. I wonder why other posters don’t have that.

No, just do what i do and fukk it all up! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Conceivable that Eugene might even get blessed with a 60-burger soon.

That would really suck for everyone. 

[Dave]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yeah the SE valley got screwed with this bigtime. Really hoping we can make up for this with a snowstorm at some point. 
 

Feels like it’s been a long time since we’ve had a proper -10c 850s airmass hit here.

Yep. This low level crap gives us a taste of winter, which is nice, but it comes with a high price. Where have the BC coastal hugging spinners been lately? We're about due for one. I doubt it will happen this winter though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Dave said:

Yep. This low level crap gives us a taste of winter, which is nice, but it comes with a high price. Where have the BC coastal hugging spinners been lately? We're about due for one. I doubt it will happen this winter though.

Nina

[Hawksfan2008]

This would be a massive win for the RGEM if it gets this right. Unlikely but that thing is hell bent on a winter storm. 

[iFred]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nina

This summer into next winter is going to be active.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Dave said:

Yep. This low level crap gives us a taste of winter, which is nice, but it comes with a high price. Where have the BC coastal hugging spinners been lately? We're about due for one. I doubt it will happen this winter though.

Just feels hopeless at this point. Like our summers continuing to get hotter and drier which will ultimately lead to a large portion of the metro area being destroyed by fires.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, iFred said:

This summer into next winter is going to be active.

I agree. Won't always be cold, but it will be fun. 

[Winterdog]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Needle ice.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Needle_ice

Thanks, very interesting.

[Phil]

31 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like whenever I make a post there’s some typo I feel compelled to fix, which means I get the ugly edited tag. I wonder why other posters don’t have that.

Do you have the “show that this message has been edited” box checked when you edit a post? 

[iFred]

27 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

 

Probably the same reason @iFred would downvote a post encouraging people to plant native  

Why hasn't anyone tried voting that asshole out of power. Easily one of the worst people here, abusing the mod powers we so entrusted him with. He probably coordinates with @TT-SEA and @Rubus Leucodermis on what angle the troll posts will take to drive up engagement, just so he can collect and sell our data.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Just feels hopeless at this point. Like our summers continuing to get hotter and drier which will ultimately lead to a large portion of the metro area being destroyed by fires.

Just wait for next winter my dude. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, Jakewestsalem said:

Flight out of Nashville tomorrow evening at 6pm local time to KSEA.

No delays so far, but I am not encouraged by what I've heard lately

I’m at 7 am. 

[Dave]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Just feels hopeless at this point. Like our summers continuing to get hotter and drier which will ultimately lead to a large portion of the metro area being destroyed by fires.

Maybe we could have a massive 4 inch ice storm that destroys all the trees. That would make us somewhat fire resistant.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Needle ice.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Needle_ice

My kids were quite fascinated by it this weekend while walking our trails. 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Why hasn't anyone tried voting that ******* out of power. Easily one of the worst people here, abusing the mod powers we so entrusted him with. He probably coordinates with @TT-SEA and @Rubus Leucodermis on what angle the troll posts will take to drive up engagement, just so he can collect and sell our data.

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Wintry looking mole hills melting rapidly in 34 degree sunshine

Still quite frozen here! My poor grass has taken a beating with the dogs and kids 

[Phil]

31 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yes. It’s been an absolute nightmare. We have power for now but probly not for long once the ZR starts up again. Hopefully we get the southerly winds to mix us out fast compared to everyone else like usual. One of the few times I’m happy for it. So many structures ruined like our gazebo and we won’t be able to afford one til who knows when.

I’m sorry man, no good comes from ZR.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, Jakewestsalem said:

I'll be there at 3pm CST near the Alaska gates!!

I probably will too as I wait for my 7 am flight to board. You will be the same gate as me. I slept there Sunday night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ZR and 25 at EUG now. 

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Dave said:

Yep. This low level crap gives us a taste of winter, which is nice, but it comes with a high price. Where have the BC coastal hugging spinners been lately? We're about due for one. I doubt it will happen this winter though.

Not much of a northern stream this winter. And even less so going forward as the MJO constructively interferes w/ the Niño base state (orbits through phase 7-8-1 late this month into Feb).

Next winter should have more northern stream even in the absence of a niña (+QBO will help with that to some extent as will the lack of a strong niño).

[MossMan]

Got a picture just now from my uncle that is at the lake house, most of the lake is now frozen over. He still has a flip phone so the picture is not quite top quality lol 

[Dave]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ZR and 25 at EUG now. 

Not a drop here yet. Probably about 15 minutes or less though. Hope it doesn't last too long.

[iFred]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree. Won't always be cold, but it will be fun. 

The summer of 2019 was pretty active and thinking back, a lot of our Nino-to-Nina summers have had some pretty fun light shows and bouts of active weather to enjoy.

That said, still feeling pretty great about end-of-month and February for our next shot.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Not much of a northern stream this winter. And even less so going forward as the MJO constructively interferes w/ the Niño base state (orbits through phase 7-8-1 late this month into Feb).

Next winter should have more northern stream even in the absence of a niña (+QBO will help with that to some extent as will the lack of a strong niño).

What if we have a Nina?!

[Dave]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Got a picture just now from my uncle that is at the lake house, most of the lake is now frozen over. He still has a flip phone so the picture is not quite top quality lol 

It's time. Rubus says thin ice is best.

 

[Hawksfan2008]

Temperature falling in North Bend after not quite making it above freezing. @TT-SEA would know better from experience but based on models I don’t see how we get through this one without a fairly significant ice event. Winds stay easterly until noon tomorrow.  

[Front Ranger]

For the PNW, the most impressive aspect of this Arctic event has undoubtedly been the high temps. A few examples.

• BLI's high of 10 on 1/12 was their coldest January high temp on record, and their second coldest ever after the 9 seen in Dec 1968
• SEA's high of 22 was their coldest high since Dec 1990, and their coldest January high since 1969
• SLE's high of 23 was their coldest since Dec 1998, and their coldest in January since 1979
• Omak's high of 1 was their coldest since January 1969

 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

It's time. Rubus says thin ice is best.

 

Wish I had the time to run over there today, I used to fling rocks on the ice for hours back in the day there! 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Temperature falling in North Bend after not quite making it above freezing. @TT-SEA would know better from experience but based on models I don’t see how we get through this one without a fairly significant ice event. Winds stay easterly until noon tomorrow.  

Best hope is precip is light and east wind eats up the moisture and temp stays relatively steady.   Don't think it will drop to the low 20s or anything like that.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

For the PNW, the most impressive aspect of this Arctic event has undoubtedly been the high temps. A few examples.

• BLI's high of 10 on 1/12 was their coldest January high temp on record, and their second coldest ever after the 9 seen in Dec 1968
• SEA's high of 22 was their coldest high since Dec 1990, and their coldest January high since 1969
• SLE's high of 23 was their coldest since Dec 1998, and their coldest in January since 1979
• Omak's high of 1 was their coldest since January 1969

 

Great stuff. I agree, the highs were the most impressive part. Lows were impressive too, but not of the same historic nature. 

[Cold Snap]

Quite the icicle that’s formed on the hot tub.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Corvallis hit 32 right before noon, but is now down to 25 and reporting "light snow," which I'm guessing is sleet. 

[Tanis Leach]

6 hours ago, Andstorm said:

Good stuff! Will the snow cover in the Columbia Basin impact the cold pool at all. I’m seeing temps Thursday hovering relatively close to freezing so just curious what sort of risk there is for a mini reload. 

It very well could, though it would still be weaker. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Temperature falling in North Bend after not quite making it above freezing. @TT-SEA would know better from experience but based on models I don’t see how we get through this one without a fairly significant ice event. Winds stay easterly until noon tomorrow.  

One other note is that I expect it will end up a little warmer up here than in North Bend later tonight and tomorrow morning similar to what happened last year and consistent with warm air aloft.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

23 minutes ago, iFred said:

Why hasn't anyone tried voting that ******* out of power. Easily one of the worst people here, abusing the mod powers we so entrusted him with. He probably coordinates with @TT-SEA and @Rubus Leucodermis on what angle the troll posts will take to drive up engagement, just so he can collect and sell our data.

It is an honor to be mentioned in conjunction with @TT-SEA. Thanks!

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

Weather app says expect heavy snow in the next hour  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

Weather app says expect heavy snow in the next hour  

You have a little elevation don't you? How did you do last February/March?

[Slushy Inch]

34 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

This would be a massive win for the RGEM if it gets this right. Unlikely but that thing is hell bent on a winter storm. 

RGEm is my new favorite model

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

RGEm is my new favorite model

Mine as well. Screw that European Scrooge!!!! Such a stuck up model.