snow_wizard Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I was going to mention earlier that the initial band lasts about 4-5 hours and is north of the Seattle area by 2 a.m. I also assume the dry air and east wind will keep the precip fairly light in that band up here. Yeah. Light freezing rain isn't a terrible thing like when it gets really thick. It's actually kind of cool in small amounts. The 18z GFS keeps the hope for alive for a little bit of snow tomorrow evening around here. We'll see. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thickhog Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 17 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: Just heard it started sleeting in Tigard! All sleet here! Same as Saturday 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Mostly sleet now Temp is constant but DP rising rapidly 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, Dave said: Still getting the ZR. I can hear tree branches break every once in a while. The power has flickered a couple of times. On a positive note, I have about 5000 brand new icicles. The major breaking happens when temps go back above freezing... 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Front Ranger Posted January 16 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 16 FWIW...this is where the GFS had today's storm a couple days ago. And where it is now. 11 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Raining and 28 degrees. Some sleet mixed in but mostly zr 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Salem down to 25. 4 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Yeah. Light freezing rain isn't a terrible thing like when it gets really thick. It's actually kind of cool in small amounts. The 18z GFS keeps the hope for alive for a little bit of snow tomorrow evening around here. We'll see. Lots of reports of sleet down south. You think it might start as sleet up here? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, iFred said: So many fun memories as a 1st grader and digging this stuff up at the bus stop. This was around the time that I learned about the positive weenie healing powers of wheel barrow ice, a tradition that I still keep to this very day. I have a 40 gallon garbage can full of water and it froze solid! I have that for reasons other than watching it freeze BTW. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 It is a very wet sleet. Not fully frozen. Reminds me of small hail 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said: Lots of reports of sleet down south. You think it might start as sleet up here? Given how dry the mid and low levels are it could happen. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, iFred said: So many fun memories as a 1st grader and digging this stuff up at the bus stop. This was around the time that I learned about the positive weenie healing powers of wheel barrow ice, a tradition that I still keep to this very day. Got some cool WB ice here. Upside down as well! 9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Meatyorologist Posted January 16 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: I have a 40 gallon garbage can full of water and it froze solid! I have that for reasons other than watching it freeze BTW. Behind our garage 11 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Saturday, we had icy snow and then sleet. Today we have wet sleet and eventually ZR. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Our temp bounced around quite a bit at onset it dropped to 26, but now up to 30. I don't expect a huge warm up to 50 or anything as the mid levels have cooled quite a bit. Horse Creek is down to 42 and the other station at 3900' about 9 miles east of us is down to 36, but I would expect we go above freezing in the next couple of hours. 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: FWIW...this is where the GFS had today's storm a couple days ago. And where it is now. If it could just stay a bit south it could be a whole different ball game for us here. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, thickhog said: All sleet here! Same as Saturday Just started sleeting here too! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gummy Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said: Lots of reports of sleet down south. You think it might start as sleet up here? We have reached that point where I am praying for 0.5 to 1.0 inches of sleet in Seattle. Desperate times indeed. 4 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Sleet here 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Back mostly to liquid. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: If it could just stay a bit south it could be a whole different ball game for us here. Hard to beat the ECMWF for consistency. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Eugene should be getting a bit of a break here in an hour or so. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthBend RainEnthusiast Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Cliff forecast for Puget Sound: "There could be a few flakes getting to near sea level and perhaps a spot of freezing rain, but nothing of note." https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/heavy-lowland-snow-over-northwest.html 2 1 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post iFred Posted January 17 Author Popular Post Report Share Posted January 17 53 minutes ago, Willamette Weenie said: Feels like... coming from a self aware weather weenie, that the Willamette Valley, especially south has been seeing a lot more ice storm activity the past several years. Trying to understand the significance of climate change and how that might be impacting this region in regards to frozen precipitation. That or we're just heading into a new ice age and the PNW is leading the way. Weakened polar jet means shorter wavelengths, but also more opportune time for blocking, A warming north Pacific means that the axis of the ridge can shift further west. A delay in sea ice coverage in the Sea of Okhotsk and Bering Strait means that the storm track can hug the SIberian coast, creating stronger lows with the beautiful mixture of dry Russian air and moist Japanese moistness. These lows then pump the jet and the ridge. More tropical convective opportunities because of that warmer air means more opportunities for Kona lows which help build that ridge even further and can be useful in anchoring it. Then we have our friend the North Atlantic which also being warmer, encourages larger sprawling highs that help squeeze air out of the arctic. Then we have the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard. Later snowcover and lake ice mean that the storm track is further inland, allowing for an effective wall to slow any eastward progression of our cold air friend. Lastly, as @Meatyorologist had pointed out a while ago, if we manage to get air on the western side of the Rockies, it can not only stay strapped, but at lower levels it can linger, provided that the Pacific is weak, something expected with climate change. All of this is a bit of conjecture, a paper I read on air currents, and anecdotal evidence from the past decade of this forum, where our summers are warmer and drier, and our winters seem to be prone to more extremes. Yeah yeah yeah, I know from a few of you, some of whom I respect and would like to get a beer to bond over our shared love of cold, snow, ice, dark Pacific Northwest winters, will have to say that I am being "CNN Fred", a liberal loon who is pushing some global warming agenda, and you'd mostly be right. If you want to argue that aspect, meet me in the Off Topic forum. 11 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Eugene should be getting a bit of a break here in an hour or so. Good thing, because they've only inched up 1 degree an hour for the past 3 hours to 28 now. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Here we go, starting to come down hard now. Weather app says heavy snow but it’s actually heavy sleet! 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said: Cliff forecast for Puget Sound: "There could be a few flakes getting to near sea level and perhaps a spot of freezing rain, but nothing of note." https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/heavy-lowland-snow-over-northwest.html That means we're going to be measuring snow in feet and freezing rain in inches. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I was going to mention earlier that the initial band lasts about 4-5 hours and is north of the Seattle area by 2 a.m. I also assume the dry air and east wind will keep the precip fairly light in that band up here. Can you run this loop? Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said: Cliff forecast for Puget Sound: "There could be a few flakes getting to near sea level and perhaps a spot of freezing rain, but nothing of note." https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/heavy-lowland-snow-over-northwest.html No idea why he does this because it just sets him up for a major fail. Warn people of the real possibility and say it will be a close call with temperature. It is what it is. But saying nothing will happen is in direct contrast with even the gold standard ECMWF. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted January 17 Author Report Share Posted January 17 11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Behind our garage We are all kindred spirits. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: No idea why he does this because it just sets him up for a major fail. Warn people of the real possibility and say it will be a close call with temperature. It is what it is. But saying nothing will happen is in direct contrast with even the gold standard ECMWF. He lives and dies with his WRF. 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, iFred said: We are all kindred spirits. It's a blank picture for me. I'm assuming the camera is buried under snow and ice, is this from 12/15/2024? Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: Can you run this loop? Latest HRRR goes through mid morning tomorrow. 00Z run will go out 48 hours. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 I'm having sleet and a lot of it 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said: Cliff forecast for Puget Sound: "There could be a few flakes getting to near sea level and perhaps a spot of freezing rain, but nothing of note." https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/heavy-lowland-snow-over-northwest.html Roads are too warm! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted January 17 Author Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: It's a blank picture for me. I'm assuming the camera is buried under snow and ice. I'm assuming this is from 12/15/2024 iOS beta bug in action. Second try. My wife asked me what I was doing, I told her that I'd stop doing this if we moved to Minneapolis. She stopped asking me questions after that. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Just now, iFred said: iOS beta bug in action. Second try. My wife asked me what I was doing, I told her that I'd stop doing this if we moved to Minneapolis. She stopped asking me questions after that. apps-fileview.texmex_20240111.00_p1 Image_20240116_160803_652.jpeg Displaying Image_20240116_160803_652.jpeg. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars43 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: I think so. The ice on top of the snow/sleet is making things look shiny. Not the main road, shared driveway. Here is a picture from an hour ago of the main road. We just lost power. Still 26 rain has not stopped. 3 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthBend RainEnthusiast Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: No idea why he does this because it just sets him up for a major fail. Warn people of the real possibility and say it will be a close call with temperature. It is what it is. But saying nothing will happen is in direct contrast with even the gold standard ECMWF. It seems like the NWS and other popular online weather commentators have really been placing an emphasis on communicating uncertainty these last few years. Cliff appears to have taken the opposite approach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted January 17 Author Report Share Posted January 17 Just now, Omegaraptor said: Roads are too warm! Must be a cold day in hell when this Joe guy agrees with Cliff Mass. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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