January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[MossMan]

32.2 here and it’s been pouring chunky rain for an hour now. Nothing is really icing up, However my rain gauge is still showing 0.00” 

Was really hoping to get at least a little ice accumulation but that doesn’t even look good at this point. 

Some day I will be living east of the Cascades…Some day. 

Give me all of Tigers ice, I will gladly take it! 

So incredibly disappointing. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

19 minutes ago, iFred said:

It’ll be in the mid sixties by daybreak. Don’t worry about it.

Hopefully inside my house, yes. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm sure there are a bunch of people enjoying it as well.  I guarantee it.

Many more that aren't... including some on here.    Can't change it... so if you enjoy it then that is great.   But for those weary of the ice... that map was to offer hope.  The same map was actually colder than normal up here.    Not that it matters... its a day 5 map from ECMWF which should be fine no matter what. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm sure there are a bunch of people enjoying it as well.  I guarantee it.

I sure would be. 

[Phil]

32 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And if I followed every forecast over the last few years for my cabin or my home I'd of got 20% of what I ended up getting.  For the areas I follow the euro is HORRIBLE for snow predictions.  The mm5 is better.

 

It’s also possible the snow map algorithms are the source of the error (if that’s what you’re using).

I personally hate those snow maps. Much prefer modeled soundings, but I’m not sure that will work at your Cabin given all the terrain.

16 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

That would be nice. I actually booked tickets to San Diego for March earlier today! I need a little sun!

I’d rather live in Miami than San Diego. There is basically no weather at all in SoCal, nightmare for a wx hobbyist.

[snow_wizard]

Quite a number of cold members on the GEFS late this month.  Pretty interesting to see so much fluctuation on the mean from run to run on an ensemble.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Am I allowed to post the hourly temp map from ECMWF for the Seattle area?   

That's not up to me, but better not.

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

The summers down there, man. Ugh.

I was in SE GA most of last August and it was rough. Worse than anything I’ve experienced since July 2020. But the vibe is so amazing that it’s worth it (IMO).

Still don't understand what this means...

[Skagit Weather]

Just plain rain here now with temperatures hovering above 32F. It looks like the 0C 925 mb line might be making its way over here from Vancouver Island so that's my hope for how I might see a little snow.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

It’s also possible the snow map algorithms are the source of the error. Though I don’t know what you use to decipher snowfall there.

Here I use modeled soundings, but I’m not sure that will work at your Cabin given all the terrain.

I’d rather live in Miami than San Diego. There is basically no weather at all in SoCal, nightmare for a wx hobbyist.

San Diego would drive me utterly insane.

[MossMan]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Quite a number of cold members on the GEFS late this month.  Pretty interesting to see so much fluctuation on the mean from run to run on an ensemble.

Phil says we might get some scraps in March but otherwise we are screwed. 

[Brennan]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

The summers down there, man. Ugh.

I was in SE GA most of last August and it was rough. Worse than anything I’ve experienced since July 2020. But the vibe is so amazing that it’s worth it (IMO).

Summers. 90-95* almost every day. Water temp 80-90 from June to September. Good luck having dry clothes. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

I sure would be. 

I have no doubt that is true!    I love your excitement and wouldn't want you to ever change.   

[Phil]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Still don't understand what this means...

You ever been to coastal SE GA? Everything about it is perfect except the summer heat/humidity.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

32.2 here and it’s been pouring chunky rain for an hour now. Nothing is really icing up, However my rain gauge is still showing 0.00” 

Was really hoping to get at least a little ice accumulation but that doesn’t even look good at this point. 

Some day I will be living east of the Cascades…Some day. 

Give me all of Tigers ice, I will gladly take it! 

So incredibly disappointing. 

I'm so D**n tired of this side of the mountains.  I absolutely hate it with every fiber. I'm getting much closer though to leaving. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Brennan said:

Summers. 90-95* almost every day. Water temp 80-90 from June to September. Good luck having dry clothes. 

I don’t understand why anyone would want to live there…

[bainbridgekid]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

San Diego would drive me utterly insane.

I honestly think I'd just stop thinking about Winter Weather entirely. Out of sight out of mind. 

Pretty good argument the climate here is driving you (and most of us) more insane than San Diego ever could.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Phil says we might get some scraps in March but otherwise we are screwed. 

So a February cold snap is basically a lock, then.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

32.2 here and it’s been pouring chunky rain for an hour now. Nothing is really icing up, However my rain gauge is still showing 0.00” 

Was really hoping to get at least a little ice accumulation but that doesn’t even look good at this point. 

Some day I will be living east of the Cascades…Some day. 

Give me all of Tigers ice, I will gladly take it! 

So incredibly disappointing. 

You should get some snow up there before this is all done.

I hear you loud and clear about living east of the Cascades!  There have been several consecutive days of below zero lows in some places over there.

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Snowing at a decent clip here now.  This webcam is from down in town at sea level. 
 

 

That appears to be white frozen droplets of water accumulating on a surface below freezing.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Phil says we might get some scraps in March but otherwise we are screwed. 

If the MJO wave holds together when it gets to region 7 we have a decent chance late month.

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

32.2 here and it’s been pouring chunky rain for an hour now. Nothing is really icing up, However my rain gauge is still showing 0.00” 

Was really hoping to get at least a little ice accumulation but that doesn’t even look good at this point. 

Some day I will be living east of the Cascades…Some day. 

Give me all of Tigers ice, I will gladly take it! 

So incredibly disappointing. 

I’m sorry mate. Believe me, I can empathize.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

You ever been to coastal SE GA? Everything about it is perfect except the summer heat/humidity.

No. What's so special about it?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm so D**n tired of this side of the mountains.  I absolutely hate it with every fiber. I'm getting much closer though to leaving. 

See... Brennan just mocked me for complaining about it here and yet many of you do it way more.    We honestly love it here.  My wife said the other day that if we ever left it would be because summers are getting too hot and the fire danger is going up.   Not because of the rain at all.   

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

If I was in the situation TWL is in right now I would love to see the Sunday map.  But that's just me.    @Rubus Leucodermisposts warm maps all the time.  Way more than I do.   He does it just for fun.  How can a 5 day temp map be offensive anyways?    Don't get it.

I agree. Just found it reached Sergeant if not Captain levels of Obvious more than anything else. Don't think anyone has ever been projecting other than climo coming back with a vengeance by Sunday. Except that westcoastexpat guy who promised us cold as far as the eye could see.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I honestly think I'd just stop thinking about Winter Weather entirely. Out of sight out of mind. 

Pretty good argument the climate here is driving you (and most of us) more insane than San Diego ever could.

Exactly!   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

About a 1/8 glaze on everything here

 Roads are extremely dangerous. 

You can see the glaze and ice on my truck 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

I agree. Just found it reached Sergeant if not Captain levels of Obvious more than anything else. Don't think anyone has ever been projecting other than climo coming back with a vengeance by Sunday. Except that westcoastexpat guy who promised us cold as far as the eye could see.

It was because it was so warm down there.   Not just that it got above freezing.    If I was buried in ice it would lift my sprits.  

[snow_wizard]

Right now I'm betting against the ECMWF.  Just makes no sense.

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That appears to be white frozen droplets of water accumulating on a surface below freezing.

That is what it appears to be.  About 3/4” in the past hour or so. 

[Brennan]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I don’t understand why anyone would want to live there…

I don’t know, we’ve really liked it so far. There have been more days than I can count since early September that have reminded me of PNW summers. Upper 70s and wall to wall sunshine, cool evenings… the only type of weather I’ll miss is snow…. It’s been an edge of my seat kind of week tracking things back home. Mom says she’s going to send pics and videos of the snow in the AM. I might cry. I’ll be happy if it looks somewhat like this though… perhaps without the xmas lights.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Right now I'm betting against the ECMWF.  Just makes no sense.

For tomorrow?   Man that is a tough bet for an event in progress.   If the ECMWF was the only model showing 20 inches of snow here then I would be almost 100% sure we would be buried in snow tomorrow.    

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I honestly think I'd just stop thinking about Winter Weather entirely. Out of sight out of mind. 

Pretty good argument the climate here is driving you (and most of us) more insane than San Diego ever could.

What drives me crazy around here is the near misses or it is snowing north and not south or vise versa. Just over it, it's exhausting to watch and wait and then you get 2 hrs of freezing rain and a dusting of snow. Most of the snow I get out here is hard to enjoy because it gets rained away a bunch or happens overnight.  

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I agree. Just found it reached Sergeant if not Captain levels of Obvious more than anything else. Don't think anyone has ever been projecting other than climo coming back with a vengeance by Sunday. Except that westcoastexpat guy who promised us cold as far as the eye could see.

I was stunned by how bullish he was.  Normally he is very reserved about such things.

[Phil]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

If the MJO wave holds together when it gets to region 7 we have a decent chance late month.

I’m surprised guidance isn’t at least hinting at further disruptions to the PV with a high amplitude phase-7 MJO. That’s usually a good phase for wave driving. But the in-situ environment (reflective, equatorward fluxes) probably explains that. If the SSW had waited another 2-3 weeks we’d be looking at a huge NAM flip right now.

Once the thaw starts here week-2 I’ll probably have to wait for the MJO to reach phase 8/1 for more excitement. I expect a coast to coast torch for 2 weeks before discontinuous retrogression of the CONUS ridge begins. But I hope I’m wrong about that.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Brennan said:

I don’t know, we’ve really liked it so far. There have been more days than I can count since early September that have reminded me of PNW summers. Upper 70s and wall to wall sunshine, cool evenings… the only type of weather I’ll miss is snow…. It’s been an edge of my seat kind of week tracking things back home. Mom says she’s going to send pics and videos of the snow in the AM. I might cry. I’ll be happy if it looks somewhat like this though… perhaps without the xmas lights.

Gotta say....I'm shocked you moved down there.

Gorgeous pic BTW.

[Brennan]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

See... Brennan just mocked me for complaining about it here and yet many of you do it way more.    We honestly love it here.  My wife said the other day that if we ever left it would be because summers are getting too hot and the fire danger is going up.   Not because of the rain at all.   

Tim, i’m just playing! I love coming back on here and feeling right in the mix…. It makes me feel young again. LOL

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

No. What's so special about it?

Visit St. Simon’s and get back to me. You’ll understand.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I was stunned by how bullish he was.  Normally he is very reserved about such things.

Fred scolded him so he went completely in the other direction as an extended troll.   He didn't mean anything he was saying.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Brennan said:

Tim, i’m just playing! I love coming back on here and feeling right in the mix…. It makes me feel young again. LOL

I know... we have been on here for a significant part of our lives.   Its crazy when you think about it.